Hypothetical Question

[Shirib]

With US announcing troop withdrawals in Syria and Afghanistan and negotiating with the Taliban, it's easy to see that a force like that leaving creates a political and military vacuum.

In the case of Somalia AMISOM troops are stationed in Xamar, Baydhabo, etc. If all foreign troops were to leave Somalia tomorrow, what would happen?

-Would Al Shabaab overrun the entire government and take control of the entirety of southern Somalia?
-Could the SNA actually hold Xamar without AMISOM?
-Would SNA even exist or would it just disintegrate into a bunch of clan militias?

[Shirib]

Oh wow, this news just in.

Pentagon plans to scale back in Somalia
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nation ... ut-n954836

[original dervish]

With the right kind of investment SNA can easily secure Banaadir.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Blessing in disguise. This will force SNA to do it's job and force us to kick out foreigners.

[original dervish]

Absolutely

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Farmajo probably felt this was coming and made contingency plans with Turkey. We'll probably illegally trade with Turks for arms and force the UNSC to take the arms embargo off. This might be a real blessing in disguise. The last two years we've been gaining new Turkish trained officiers as well. The Airforce and Navy is coming trained by Turks. Turkey invested alot in our army and help us train and create structure IA we'll see.

[original dervish]

The army and the police are not the issue......it's the ministers and high officials.
Wages and equipment are being misappropriated daily.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

We're fighting 30yrs of decay and rot in the system and culture of Somalia. Plus, Hawiye doesn't want peace. That's the annoying thing. We'll see.

[FarhanYare]

Blessing in disguise. This will force SNA to do it's job and force us to kick out foreigners.

Who will force them?? On the contrary it might actually cause a lot of them buying their deen over aqira if shabaab offers to pay them well. However, I don't understand the logic of taking a highly highly dangerous job offer from Shabab where it entails loosing your life, but surprisingly people do.

The blessing in disguise that am hoping would happen as a result of Amisom's exit is that actually locals form their own community policing dotted around the city to stop from their city becoming the next Aleppo. It would mean full out war, but I think the locals will easily defeat these kids.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Blessing in disguise. This will force SNA to do it's job and force us to kick out foreigners.

Who will force them?? On the contrary it might actually cause a lot of them buying their deen over aqira if shabaab offers to pay them well. However, I don't understand the logic of taking a highly highly dangerous job offer from Shabab where it entails loosing your life, but surprisingly people do.

The blessing in disguise that am hoping would happen as a result of Amisom's exit is that actually locals form their own community policing dotted around the city to stop from their city becoming the next Aleppo. It would mean full out war, but I think the locals will easily defeat these kids.

I agree with this.

[Cunaaye25]

Was reading this article few days ago quote from


“
Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who until last year commanded Special Operations in Africa and directly oversaw such efforts. “


Every expert I spoke with recommended investing in rebuilding the country instead. This approach didn’t work well in Afghanistan, but there are differences. Somalia’s president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, is friendly to the United States—and he was chosen by his own people, not installed by the U.S. Somalia’s Islamist extremists no longer enjoy broad ideological support. “There was a time when the Shabab could transcend all the regional clan differences and project this kind of Pan Somalia, Pan Islam type of image,” said Halakhe. “That is gone.





The country’s problems are mostly economic, says Bolduc, and solving them would cost so much less than the trillions spent in Afghanistan and Iraq that the question doesn’t fall into the same category. He points to success in Puntland, Somalia’s northernmost member state. In 2017, Bolduc and his special forces worked with the state’s president, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas, and with American diplomats to assemble local forces and tribal elders. They trained the Puntland militias but offered no air or ground support. Working entirely on their own, Somali forces moved from southern Puntland up to a northern port where the Islamic State (a rival of the Shabab) had established control. They took back everything and secured it in about a week. “ISIS East Africa has not been able to get a foothold back into these areas,” says Bolduc. “And those villages are holding today.”

(Schwartz, who served as U.S. ambassador there until the end of September 2017)


Schwartz (says this success could be replicated throughout Somalia if the United States invested a fraction of what it has been spending on special operators and drones. “The budget of the Somali government is comparable to the salary cap for the Washington Nationals baseball team,” he said. “They’re both around $210 million.” He said that less than half that amount would be enough to enable the president to pay the salaries of Somalia National Army recruits and other government employees. That step alone, he says, “would make our investment on the military side more successful.”

It would be foolish to try such an intervention in other countries where America is in conflicts. It wouldn’t work, for instance, in Pakistan, where there’s a powerful Islamist presence, a sophisticated military and a history of tensions with the United States. Our experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq—and, years ago, in Vietnam—showed us that American efforts will continually fail if there isn’t a willing local government with the support of the people.


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[SahanGalbeed]

Sink or swim

[Django]

US have played a vital role in the civil war in Somalia.They traiined USC to oust MSB and when Aideed came to power and was almost securing the entire south the US came up with UNISOM and when UNISOM left Somalia was left fragmented.
Then US started dealing with the warlords......fast forward today.

The thing is US sees Somalia as its future frontier and is laying its foundations to it and would bar China from trying to steal its dream.
So come rain or sunshine somalias political spectrum will be heavily influenced by USA.

[original dervish]

I'd take the US over the Africans and Arabs any day of the week.

[theyuusuf143]

I believe without Amisom or well funded clan based pro government militias alshabab can over run the so called SNA in few days not even months . The only way Somalia can defeat or resist alshabab is by empowering clans and their militias.