Ethiopia in crisis

[Django]

Abyes Nobel prize at risk.

I knew the US was planning alot of stuff.

The moment they removed TPLF from power.

Abye has been playing with the US diplomacy.He was a TPLF cadre and the US brought him to "reform" Ethiopia.
TPLF was literary threatened by the US and told to step down which they obliged like a poodle.Had they not they would have been destroyed by US airforce in Djibouti.Makelle would have been reduced to stone age.

Why did US fall out with TPLF? For fact it wasnt about human rights.The US had supported TPLF through its brutal years of dictatorship supressing OLF and othet spoilers in Ethiopia by providing intelligence to TPLF.
The main reason TPLF was unceremoniously kicked out was due to the fact that it went to bed with China.China is becoming the US no 1 threat in their intereest in the Horn of Africa.

After China awareed billions of dollars of aid to TPLF.US lost its dorminance and had to assert itself back into the helm.Then Abye was brought to power.We know the main aim eas not about reforms or human rights because Ethiopia human rights abuse is the norm while the US always turned a a blind eye and call them the champions of reform and caled Ethiopia a beam of democracy in Ethiopia which is very ironic.

Abyes main task was to cut Ethiopia's reliance on China and to possibly sideline China.But it is very hard to sideline China because they Chinese scrapped the loan debt they gave to Ethiopia and even extended its loan facility to Abye.Something the US was not able to offer.Because Chinese loan had no strings attached apart feom it being unfavourable to the host country.Iy doesnt care if the loans are earmarked for development or if they build low quality infrastructure.

So as always the US had a joker card up on their sleeves.Abye become too confident even getting Nobel prize.Abye forgot who put him in power and he has been ungrateful to the US generosity.He didnt learn anything from the rise and fall of zenawi or Salva Kiir of South Sudan.

Jawar is the joker card the US pulled out.It doesnt mean they support this lunatic but he is the South Sudan equivalent of Machar aka the spoiler.Jawar has a huge fan base which if he reaches out to will ennsure Abye (a former Intelligence TPLF foitsoilder) lose voters .Abye was a Pyramid scheme and Jawar has exposed it.


The moment Jawar renounced his US citizenship and started to prepare himself for next year elections Abye knew his sheep cliothing was exposed and eveybody saw him as the wolf.All the protests was done by Jawar mobilising the qerro gangs to bring Ethiopia to standstill forcing TPLF to lose its seat dof power in Addis Ababa which Abye had capitalised and propelled him to becoming the PM.

Immediatly when Jawar renounced his US citizenship.Abye removed his security details which was a way to frighten Jawar.But Jawar tapped his fan base and told them of the situation and in no time millions of his supporters rushed to his call.

The Amhara are celebtatung this pitting Oromos against each other in the media.Calling jawar a terrorist Islamist or a TPLF undercover spoiler.

Its a win win for Amhara because they know a dicided Oromo signals their return to power.Both abye and Jawar will lose the elections if they go different paths.Most likely Abye might either expel Jawar from Ethiopia or eliminate hin all together in an "accident".

Jawar new policy is Somalis being given the right to elect their own folks not to be given appointees running thw Somali Kilil like Iley or Cagjar which is a fair point.But you have to indrsrand also that Jawar is not an innocent man he mobilised qerro to attack other ethnic groups that saw millions of somalis being displaced from Oromia.

[SadeSoulja]

why aren't you guys getting ddsi ready to become independent

[Typhoon]

django, the master mind behind the horn of africa strategy is donald yamamoto
ethiopia has been a liability for the americans since the 2005 rigged election and the invasion of somalia in 2006 and human rights abuses in the omali region.
inorder to rebuild its image the TPLF consatructed the fake economic growt statistics and went on a pr campaine in the somali regions through dhaantoonyinkan badan and mass rallies and flag waving of the somali Diaspora.

django look at my interaction with waachis and how i used to warn him about EPRDF tricks

the new american policy in horn of africa is somali centric and the Eprdf saw the coming wind, so it positioned itself by having fake transitions like Hailemariam Desalegn and abiye ahmed.

I saw this coming years ago when I reported the american were moving their embassy to a secure location and the a CIA report projected that ethiopia would disintegrate into ethnic fiefdoms.


my advice to ONLF his, quickly build a political party and campaign on a referendum platform and try to get rid of that bastard shide.

cagjar is a idot how could he allow that amxaar shide to become head of the somali regional party and finance minister at the same time

EPRDF might start their classic anti somali rhetoric to unite the habasha and christian oromo on the pretext of saving ethiopia state from somali secessionist and islamic militants (jawar mohamed)
you already saw recently that tactic in action with the afar and somali skirmishes(ethiopian military wanted foothold in the hawash valley and the djoubuti ethiopia rail line as to control weapons movement from somalia.

If i was the ONLF i would expose that region to the world as much as a can by using social media and world media.
mark my word as soon as the EPRDf makes their move, they will find support among the iidoor who will start isku dir and calacal to undermine the ONLF at the behest of the EPRDF.

btw, dont underestimate ethiopian security apparatus its still intact and is formidable, the ONLF should have transactional relations with abiye and they should brief the international community al the time because when EPRDF make move to undermine the somali state, EPRDF will sight their overtures to the somalis and hiding how they were undermining somali regional states political institutions and security architecture.

abiye ahmed is what melez zenawi looked like in 1993, in-fact melez was more honest then abiye because melez had real power put his problem with regards to somalis was that the western powers wanted somalis and the ONLF to be marginalized as to maintain ethiopian territorial integrity.
lancaster house meeting for ethiopian factions was meeshaONLF lugu siray (is a colonial symbol, very important)

cagdheerti kismaayo ba lugu musquulayay while, another once in a generation opportunity is on the horizon.
i will be dedicating alot of time to jigjiga politics, i believe the more we promote ONLF, the more leverage they will have over the international community as a alternative EPRDF to secure the vital gulf of aden from mass migration and terrorism

[Django]

Edited Version.

Abyes Nobel prize at risk.


I knew the US was planning alot of stuff.

The moment they removed TPLF from power.

Abye has been playing with the US diplomacy.He was a TPLF cadre and the US brought him to "reform" Ethiopia.
TPLF was literary threatened by the US and told to step down which they obliged like a poodle had they not, they would have been destroyed by US airforce in Djibouti.Makelle would have been reduced to stone age.

Why did US fall out with TPLF? Fora fact it wasnt about human rights.The US had supported TPLF through its brutal years of dictatorship supressing OLF and othet spoilers in Ethiopia by providing intelligence to TPLF.
The main reason TPLF was unceremoniously kicked out was due to the fact that it went to bed with China.China is becoming the US no 1 threat in their intereest in the Horn of Africa.

After China awarded billions of dollars of aid to TPLF.US lost its dorminance and had to re-assert itself back into the helm.Then Abye was brought to power.We know the main aim was not about reforms or human rights.In Ethiopia human rights abuse is the norm while the US always turned a a blind eye and call them the champions of reform and associated Ethiopia as the beam of democracy in Africa which is an irony.

Abyes main task was to cut Ethiopia's reliance on China and to possibly sideline China.But this mission was very hard. sidelining China became a difficult task as Chinese immediatly scrapped the loan debt they gave to Ethiopia and even extended its loan facility to Abye.Something the US was not able to counter.Since Chinese loan had no strings attached apart from it being unfavourable to the host country.It however didnt put much emphasis on hiw the loan was utilised or if the loans were earmarked for development or were used to build low quality infrastructure.
Hence as always the US had a joker card up on their sleeves.Abye become too confident even after getting Nobel prize.Abye forgot who put him in power and thus had turned out to be ungrateful to the US generosity.He didnt learn anything from the rise and fall of zenawi or Salva Kiir of South Sudan.

Jawar is the joker card the US pulled out.It doesnt mean they support this lunatic but he is the South Sudan equivalent of Machar aka the spoiler.Jawar has a huge fan base which if he taps in will ensure Abye (a former Intelligence spy for TPLF ) lose voters .Abye was like a Pyramid scheme and Jawar has exposed it.


The moment Jawar renounced his US citizenship and started to prepare himself for next year elections. Abye knew his sheep clothing was exposed and eveybody saw him as the wolf.All the protests in the past to oust the TPLF junta was carried out by Jawar. Mobilising the qerro gangs to bring Ethiopia to standstill forcing TPLF to lose its seat of power in Addis Ababa which Abye had capitalised on and had propelled him to becoming the PM.

Immediatly after Jawar renounced his US citizenship.Abye removed his security details which was a way to frighten Jawar.But Jawar alerted his fan base and told them of the situation and in short time millions of his supporters rushed to his call.

The Amhara are celebrating this and have resortrd to pitting Oromos against each other in the media.Calling jawar a terrorist Islamist or a TPLF undercover spoiler.

Its a win win for Amhara because they know a divided Oromo signals their return to power.Both Abye and Jawar will lose the elections if they go different paths.Most likely Abye might either expel Jawar from Ethiopia or eliminate hin all together in an "accident".

Jawar new policy is Somalis being given the right to elect their own representatives and not being given leaders on merits of appointments by PM .Like the current arrangement of running the Somali Kilil using Iley or Cagjar which is a fair point.But you have to undersrand also that Jawar is not an Angel,he mobilised qerro to attack other ethnic groups that saw millions of somalis being displaced from Oromia.

[Django]

Typhon the Somali region has very weak and Unseasoned Somali politicians.
We need a clone of MJ and Iljex politicians to do the job in the kilil.

Both ONLF and Cagjar are a failure.Both have no maturity in politics as everyone wants leadership.ONLF is like ANC of South Africa all talk but no tangible reforms or aspirations.

As for Cagjar I think he took the leadersgip position to propel his Career in the UN.After serving as Kilil repesentative he can later seek higher positions within the UN as they require someone with communal or leadership expertise.The same path The Eastleigh Somali MP has taken.

So ilahey un ba Somali kilil ujoogo.

[Typhoon]

Typhon the Somali region has very weak and Unseasoned Somali politicians.
We need a clone of MJ and Iljex politicians to do the job in the kilil.

Both ONLF and Cagjar are a failure.Both have no maturity in politics as everyone wants leadership.ONLF is like ANC of South Africa all talk but no tangible reforms or aspirations.

As for Cagjar I think he took the leadersgip position to propel his Career in the UN.After serving as Kilil repesentative he can later seek higher positions within the UN as they require someone with communal or leadership expertise.The same path The Eastleigh Somali MP has taken.

So ilahey un ba Somali kilil ujoogo.

django that why we need to put pressure on them wa in hurdada laga kaciya because with eritrean peace there will be no second chance for rebel groups because there will be no logistical base.

recenetly a prominent OG family got arrest, the a son uu hassan durki adeer uu yahay and who family have been fighting for somaliwayn way before somali independence.

I personally think cagjar is current verson of idoorkii abdulmajid

there needs to be mass campaign but it seems somali waxa lugumusquliyay xamar iyo qabyalad, just like 1993.

django, i am expert on xabashi tricks and how they make deals with the west in smoke filled rooms, the xabashi are very persuasive when it comes convincing the west of their point of view.

This is the time to pressure the EPRDF because the need international support to consolidate power and head to election.


somali regional election should take place before the ethiopian PM election for strategic reason and ONLF should have a clear date(not disclosed) for a referendum and a start date for negations.

the announcement of a referendum is constitutional and would compel the EPRDF to negotiate and if they use force, they will delegitimized themselves and would never find support from the international community and that would put their rule in the next 4 years in question, that why shide is there as the head of the somali party to not allow the somalis that strategic dept.

once the vote happens, there must be negotiation as to what the nature of somali state and ethiopian government is going to be.

The the interaction between ONLF/somali state will set the mood how the world and other ethiopians view EPRDF and abiye ahmed, because it will force them to take of their mask and act like TPLF/Derg or be constitutional liberal democratic state, I doubt they are democratic afterall they are marxist lennist orginisation absed on soviet model but our case will then be moved from ethiopian hands to a international case

EPRDF might use the spanish tactic of catalonia so to undermine ONLF and argue the precedent of the spanish case but unlike spaine ethiopia has article 39, so any referendum has legal and constitutional basis and would deligitimise ethiopia as a state that is democratising

Djago, remember the oromo are not armed and the ethiopian state is tolerating them but once there is the right political and security climate, they would clamp down on the qeero and believe me, the oromo would comply quicker then you can blink because they are not armed
the reason ethiopia is tolerating The oromo is because EPRDF is scared of the international community whos financing and aid ethiopian power structure rest on.

the west cant afford to be seen with ethiopia hence why they provide aid through third parties like UAE and Saudi arabia

[Django]

Asking for referendum is counter productive and will just alienate you.
The west will never allow the Somali region to Succeed Ethiopia and would use their resources to thwart this.

The best way is for somalis in Ethiopia region to borrow what Somalis in Kenya did.
Even though Somalis in kenya are a minority however they occupy high positions and civil service jobs thanks to the 2007 elections violence.Which pitted the landeere Kikuyu community against all kenyans.Kikuyus were lynched everwhere and killed in every region outside kikuyu land even in Nairobi they were not safe.In this crisis aomalis became neutral and Kikuyus in NFD were not targetted infact felt at home.
That is when the perception of Kikuyus had since independence changed they used to hate on somalis but noe the hate changed.After 2007 Somalis came in scores from around the globe and invested in Kenya.

We should use this strategy in Ethiopia.Be neutral and not be used as rpoxy for the power struggle.
Somalis are now K8ng makers in Ethiopia if only they realise this and exploit it to their benefit and accept being part of Ethiopia while seeking more rights in Ethiopia and getting their quota at the national level.

[SadeSoulja]

Asking for referendum is counter productive and will just alienate you.
The west will never allow the Somali region to Succeed Ethiopia and would use their resources to thwart this.

The best way is for somalis in Ethiopia region to borrow what Somalis in Kenya did.
Even though Somalis in kenya are a minority however they occupy high positions and civil service jobs thanks to the 2007 elections violence.Which pitted the landeere Kikuyu community against all kenyans.Kikuyus were lynched everwhere and killed in every region outside kikuyu land even in Nairobi they were not safe.In this crisis aomalis became neutral and Kikuyus in NFD were not targetted infact felt at home.
That is when the perception of Kikuyus had since independence changed they used to hate on somalis but noe the hate changed.After 2007 Somalis came in scores from around the globe and invested in Kenya.

We should use this strategy in Ethiopia.Be neutral and not be used as rpoxy for the power struggle.
Somalis are now K8ng makers in Ethiopia if only they realise this and exploit it to their benefit and accept being part of Ethiopia while seeking more rights in Ethiopia and getting their quota at the national level.

are somalis or tigrayans the 3rd biggest etnic group in ethiopia

[Typhoon]

Asking for referendum is counter productive and will just alienate you.
The west will never allow the Somali region to Succeed Ethiopia and would use their resources to thwart this.

The best way is for somalis in Ethiopia region to borrow what Somalis in Kenya did.
Even though Somalis in kenya are a minority however they occupy high positions and civil service jobs thanks to the 2007 elections violence.Which pitted the landeere Kikuyu community against all kenyans.Kikuyus were lynched everwhere and killed in every region outside kikuyu land even in Nairobi they were not safe.In this crisis aomalis became neutral and Kikuyus in NFD were not targetted infact felt at home.
That is when the perception of Kikuyus had since independence changed they used to hate on somalis but noe the hate changed.After 2007 Somalis came in scores from around the globe and invested in Kenya.

We should use this strategy in Ethiopia.Be neutral and not be used as rpoxy for the power struggle.
Somalis are now K8ng makers in Ethiopia if only they realise this and exploit it to their benefit and accept being part of Ethiopia while seeking more rights in Ethiopia and getting their quota at the national level.

there is a difference between unilateral declaration of indenpendence and process oriented referendum.
even if there is no independence, ethiopian government has to come to the table and make a counter offer, full legal autonomy can be granted short of independence.

Django, the west doesnt care weather ogaden is independent or nto the only thing they fear is weather Ogeniya becomes american dominated, british influenceor french influence, there is balance of power in africa among european states and sphere of influences.

Django, Kenya is a legalistic country, ethiopia is a totalitarian state there is no lobby or fair play politics so your little concept is dead on arrival and they would appoint you another shide pretending represent you order to confuse the west

the fear independence, american and the french want a buffer states between the gulf of aden and ethiopian heartland of 100 million peasentry who want to flee to the west

django, dont fear the ethiopians fear lost opportunity, the west considered ethiopia a distablising force in horn of africa until abiye changed the narrative but his honeymoon is coming to a end

[TheSonOfMayle]

We cannot Compare Ethiopia to Kenya. Somalis will never get involved with Ethiopian politics simply because it’s an oppressive empire. A disintegrated or dismantled Ethiopia is the way to freedom for somali region. There will be no political solution to this. ONLF should work towards destroying Ethiopia politically and on the ground. EPRDF are finished anyways. May allah give the Somalis victory

[SultanateofHarer]

Lmao what is all this ONLF talk xil kama hayaan somali state they’re a frindge qabil political party who has no chance at the ballot box. Ahmed shide is not there though baryo you all saw the storm we kicked up when cagjar tried to go head to head with him. Cagjar rightfully bent the knee. 2020 we will make a Dir xisbi sheeko somali majirto. May the most laandheer win

The only way Somali state will get independence is if Ethiopia completely balkanises which would take a huge conflict between oromo and Amhara and would need somalis to support oromo kicking Amhara out of Addis. Somalis have to stay as king maker and ally with jowar. The xabashis cant stand him they few him as they few somalis a Cushitic terrorist. Their distain for him will surely tear apart ethiopia which is in the interests of jowar and somalis.

[Django]

Lmao what is all this ONLF talk xil kama hayaan somali state they’re a frindge qabil political party who has no chance at the ballot box. Ahmed shide is not there though baryo you all saw the storm we kicked up when cagjar tried to go head to head with him. Cagjar rightfully bent the knee. 2020 we will make a Dir xisbi sheeko somali majirto. May the most laandheer win

The only way Somali state will get independence is if Ethiopia completely balkanises which would take a huge conflict between oromo and Amhara and would need somalis to support oromo kicking Amhara out of Addis. Somalis have to stay as king maker and ally with jowar. The xabashis cant stand him they few him as they few somalis a Cushitic terrorist. Their distain for him will surely tear apart ethiopia which is in the interests of jowar and somalis.

Jarso boy if you cant contribute anything just keep quiet.al you do is talk from uour @ss.The only Dir we know are ciise and Gadabursi.The rest are lama oyaan who weere never heard or seen for the past 2 decades.

[AbdiWahab252]

Jawar reminds me of General Salad Gabeyre who was the mastermind of the 1969 revolution but decided to let MSB be the face of the revolution while he worked behind the scenes. Abiy like MSB knew that Jawar would one day come for the throne and so had to ensure how to eliminate him.

[Django]

Jawar reminds me of General Salad Gabeyre who was the mastermind of the 1969 revolution but decided to let MSB be the face of the revolution while he worked behind the scenes. Abiy like MSB knew that Jawar would one day come for the throne and so had to ensure how to eliminate him.

Abye thought Jawar is not a threat till Jawar renounced his US citizenship then this drama started unfolding.They told his security details to withdraw slowly without being noticed.

The wanted to finish him of in an "accident".

[SultanateofHarer]

Lmao what is all this ONLF talk xil kama hayaan somali state they’re a frindge qabil political party who has no chance at the ballot box. Ahmed shide is not there though baryo you all saw the storm we kicked up when cagjar tried to go head to head with him. Cagjar rightfully bent the knee. 2020 we will make a Dir xisbi sheeko somali majirto. May the most laandheer win

The only way Somali state will get independence is if Ethiopia completely balkanises which would take a huge conflict between oromo and Amhara and would need somalis to support oromo kicking Amhara out of Addis. Somalis have to stay as king maker and ally with jowar. The xabashis cant stand him they few him as they few somalis a Cushitic terrorist. Their distain for him will surely tear apart ethiopia which is in the interests of jowar and somalis.

Jarso boy if you cant contribute anything just keep quiet.al you do is talk from uour @ss.The only Dir we know are ciise and Gadabursi.The rest are lama oyaan who weere never heard or seen for the past 2 decades.

There is no problem cisse or gadabursi will be he next president. No doubt after 2020 you will go back into the duur like Abdulmajid days.