Don't let people confuse you about the election law

[Voltage]

I have yet to see or come across a single Somali layman who comprehends the intricacies of the election law issues.

Especially here, both someone and who they say they are relying on are simply regurgitating irrelevant headlines. They seem to be completely confused about both the substance and the naunce of many of the technical details.

1. An EXPLANATION of terms;

Proportional Representation vs Plurality vs Majoritarian (First Past the Post, Simple Majority, Absolute Majority, Supermajority)

Say we have an election of a Parliament of 100 seats and 3 Parties.

+Proportional Representation system means people vote for national parties like Germany. So if Party 1 has 10% of overall vote, Party 2 has 30%, and Party 3 has 60%; the Parties respectively get 10 Seats, 30 Seats, and 60 seats of the 100 seat Parliament.

This means if a region like Gedo votes 0% for a party, the parliament can still have Reps from Gedo for that Party based on the Party nationally getting say 10% and therefore 10/100 seats in Parliament with one or more of those seats going to MP from Gedo in the Party list.

+Majoritarian Systems do not directly vote for parties but for candidates. (I am not going to get into it but please keep in mind this is handled quite differently between Parliamentary democracies where the emphasis is more on parties and Presidential democracies like the US where the emphasis is more on candidates.) In every single district, the 3 parties may choose to field a single candidate. In addition there may be independent candidates.

If the system is based on plurality and the Candidate 1 has 42%, Candidate 2 has 33%, and Candidate 3 has 25%, that means Candidate 1 wins the seat then and there. This form of plurality is also called First Past the Post or the person with the most votes regardless of anything else.

If the system is based on simple majority, that means one candidate has to get a share of the vote that is greater than the combination of all other shares which is basically 50% plus 1 or more votes. It has to be plus 1 or more other wise there is an exact tie at 50% and one candidate does not have a share of the vote GREATER THAN the combination of all other shares.

So using the scenerion if Candidate 1 has 42%, Candidate 2 has 33%, and Candidate 3 has 25%, in simple majority there would be a runoff or round 2 until someone got a simple majority (50% plus 1)

If the system is based on Supermajority, first there would be a specification of what qualifies as a supermajority. In most cases around the world, a Supermajority is valued at 2/3.

So using the same scenerio before where Candidate 1 has 42%, Candidate 2 has 33%, and Candidate 3 has 25%, in a super majority there would have to be round 2 or more rounds until a candidate attains the supermajority required. So if it is 2/3 them until one candidate got 2/3 of the vote.

If the system is based on Absolute majority, then that means the share of the vote is being counted against the total membership of the electorate and not just those participating.

So basically if there are 500 eligible voters in a district, but only 450 vote; in an absolute majority the 50 that did not vote are still counted in the overall total. That means for a candidate to get 50% of the vote, it's not 225 votes he needs (half of the 450 that voted) but really he needs to get 250 votes (half of total electorate, the 50 that did not vote are counted as against).


2. What does Somalia have NOW?

Somalia has a mix electoral system which combines 3 methods. This is normal as overwhelming majority of the world, including the US, has mix electoral system

-PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION (the way seats are allocated)
-ABSOLUTE SUPERMAJORITY (the way allocated Seats are awarded in first TWO rounds of voting)
-PLURALITY* (the way seats are decided if absolute supermajority cannot be reached by third round of voting)

*Keep in mind that Plurality is also always by default a Simple Majority in a 2 people race or First Past the Post in a 3 or more people race. This is because in a 2 people race, you cannot have a plurality with less than 50% plus 1 otherwise it is exactly a tie at 50%. 50% plus 1 is the exact definition of Simple Majority. In a 3 or more people race, you can get a plurality of the vote less than 50% which becomes First Past The Post or whomever has the most votes.

A. In terms of how Seats are ALLOCATED, Somalia has 4.5 which is a form of extreme PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.

It is extreme because it essentially says that the seats are already APPORTIONED even BEFORE any election.

This is different to the rest of the world where proportional representation is awared after the election. So if an entity has 10% of a vote or 40% of a vote----in 100 seat Parliament, they get 10 seats or 40 seats.

In 4.5 extreme PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION I am Darod-Marehan-Reer Diini-Reer Siyaad

BEFORE any votes;

-4.5 says that Darod ALWAYS gets 60 Lower House seats
-4.5 says that Marehan ALWAYS get 14 Lower House seats
-4.5 says that Reer Diini ALWAYS get 4 Lower House seats
-4.5 says that reer Siyaad is ALWAYS given a Lower House Seat

This is ALWAYS true BEFORE any vote.

So for the seat currently occupied by my MP Sagal Isaaq Biixi who is the Chairwoman of the Parliamentary Committee on Human Rights----she ONLY competed against other reer Siyaad and not even from any other Reer Diini let alone Marehan or Darod or other Somalis.

That is [an extreme version of] PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.

This is presently how Seats are ALLOCATED under 4.5 is Somalia.

B. In terms of how seats are AWARDED, present Somali constitution is silent about everyone else (basically says to be decided by permanent constituion) but President who has to win by ABSOLUTE SUPERMAJORITY.

The constitution in Article 89 says an outright winner for President is anyone who gets 2/3 (the "supermajority" value) of the ENTIRE membership of Parliament (the "absolute" majority). It is absolute because constitution says the entire existing parliament and not just the number of parliamentarians present or whose votes are counted.

So if an MP isn't there or a vote is disqualified, they are counted against the winner.

You are all familiar with this during the election of President where there are usually 3 rounds because of the difficulty of obtaining an Absolute Supermajority.

If no one gets ABSOLUTE SUPERMAJORITY (2/3 of the entire Parliament) in Round 1, then the top 4 candidates go to Round 2.

Again if no one gets ABSOLUTE SUPERMAJORITY in Round 2, then top two candidates go to Round 3.

C. In Round 3, Somalia discards absolute supermajority in favor of PLURALITY or the candidate who simply has the most votes between top two candidates.

Again, a plurality between two options is also always a simple majority (50% plus 1) the minimum number of "most" votes otherwise it is a tie.

Also recall if there are 3 or more candidates, a plurality is also always a First Past The Post if that is all you need to begin with in Round 1.

In the last Presidential election, Farmaajo failed to get an Absolute Supermajority against Hassan Sheekh and Sheekh Sharif in round 2 so round 3 was planned which would be decided by Plurality or simply whoever had most vote.

As you recall, Hassan conceded because of the gap between him and Farmaajo gave him no hope he could ever catch up to Farmaajo's plurality.

D. For reference, this is the draft Federal Constitution that has governed Somalia from 2012 to now;

http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/research/Somal ... on2012.pdf

In page 28, Article 89 dealing with the Election of President Section 2 and Section 5(B) i. clear detail stipulate theAbsolute Supermajority Criteria for President.

3. Though NO NEW LAW has been passed yet by Parliament, the draft bill circulating in the Parliamentary Subcommittee for elections is essentially hinting that AT LEAST FOR 2021;

-In terms of seats ALLOCATED, 4.5 will still be in effect which is allocation by PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

-In terms of votes REWARDED, they are saying First Past the Post will be deciding factor which means there will not be need for more than 1 Round

-Keep in mind First Past the Post simply addresses the silence of the present constitution regarding votes awarded for MPs. In previous elections, by tradition the elections of MPs took example from the Presidential criteria of Absolute Supermajority because how to elect them is not in present constitution. This is why even elections of MPs had multiple rounds of voting until last 2 candidates. The draft bill is filling this gap and officially say you now have a rule governing MP elections and it is whoever wins in first round (First Past the Post).

-I do not know yet if the Presidential criteria of Absolute Supermajority is also changed to First Past the Post which means rather than needing to get 2/3 of entire Parliament they just need to have the most votes in first round

-What some people seem to be CONFUSED about is the VOTES REWARDED criteria where First Past the Post has been selected to decide the results of the SEATS ALLOCATED by 4.5 Proportional Representation.

The draft law, at least in how votes are rewarded (the "election"), is saying no to German Style Proportional Representation

This means for the seat of Reer Siyaad in 4.5 (i.e. proportional representation in seats allocated), of all the reer Siyaad people who compete the one who gets the most seats regardless of party takes the seat (first past the post in votes rewarded)

-The German style proportional representation for votes rewarded would imply the electors of reer Siyaad choose among parties rather than candidates. Then the reer Siyaad results would be counted with reer Diini than Marehan then Darod then all Somalis. Once all the votes are counted the Parties get seats based on national vote share and from their closed list of nominees (where the Party already named candidates for sub-subclan seat) THE PARTY, NOT THE CLAN OF REER SIYAAD selects the reer Siyaad person who takes the reer Siyaad seat.

-The draft law is saying no to that. It is saying that the present system of 4.5 (i.e. Proportional Represention by "seat allocation") where clans choose their clan representatives and not parties (i.e. no to proportional representation in "votes rewarded") will still be in effect EXCEPT clan electors no longer need to follow the Presidential criteria of Absolute Supermajority as custom to award the seat (since constitution is silent about MP election rules). Rather clan electors should award their seat to whoever gets the most votes in round 1 (First Past the Post).

- Virtually NOTHING has so far changed between the system of elections in 2016 and the future one in 2021 except that MP elections now only need 1 round of voting. Clans will continue to independently award their MPs.

-In short some people are confused about terminologies that overlap (i.e proportional representation) while not understanding the distinctions between how seats are ALLOCATED vs how votes are REWARDED

-If you are also confused by how 4.5 can mean Parliament seats are ALLOCATED by proportional representation when the draft law rejects proportional representation in favor of first past the post for how votes are REWARDED, look at the US elections for Senate.

The US has 100 Senators exactly. Why?

There are 50 states and each state is proportionally ALLOCATED 2 seats (i.e. "proportional representation" by SEATS ALLOCATED).

However, to choose who fills those 2 seats, voters in a State do not vote for parties who choose the Senators (i.e. "proportional representation" by VOTES REWARDED).

Rather, voters choose among candidates and whoever has the most votes win regardless of party (First Past the Post).

-Another example about how these terms can overlap is "Absolute."

An election criteria is Absolute if the entire possible membership of a body is specifically declared as the reference for 100%.

This is why the Somali Presidential election is Absolute Supermajority because the constitution says 2/3 of the ENTIRE number of Parliament not just those voting or counted. Again, if an MP is missing or a vote is disqualified, those are counted in an Absolute election but as No votes.

But Absolute doesn't have to be a Supermajority, it can be an Absolute simple majority or Absolute majority, etc.

-Another example is the term Supermajority which only says a specific value is declared to be considered a majority.

That value doesn't have to be 2/3 like the Somali Presidential election.

It can be 70%, 75%, or 55%. The term can overlap many different rules. Etc etc etc

4. What is next?

The draft election law will continue to be debated and fine tooled.

After the subcommittee passes it, the full House will debate it.

Then because it is a Constitutional amendment, 2/3 of the Parliament will have to approve it.

Afterwards it goes to the Senate and then the same thing.

If it gets 2/3 of both chambers then it will have to go to a referendum because again it is a constitutional amendment and that is what the threshold is.

This is why the present constitution since 2012 is a "draft constitution."

By law it cannot be called Somalia's constitution without being approved by a referendum as it says.

So there is a long process a head and because of the complexity and nuances and technical details, some people will be confused and will try to confuse others.

I would not pay any Somali layman any attention on this. It is way too complicated which is why the process forward is long.

[Seedyare]

Are we in electioneering time ?

[Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE]

Informative
—-Nubis

[theyuusuf143]

Election is when peaple vote for their parties or candidates. Somalia can't have election of any type. Candidates or parties can't campaign outside the virtual world of the internet. Gatherings are still death trap in Somalia and alshabaab controls the entire country directly or indirectly. I don't see the need to change or alter the system. Just because the IC suggested does not mean it suits you. Even in somaliland where we have the "Best democracy in the Horn " according to the Westerners , the system we took which is WINNER TAKES ALL is counterproductivee of our stability, it's the single biggest cause of our internal problems. I laugh when I see southies thinking that one man one vote is a progress. It's not , it's the beginning of new civil war.

[Voltage]

Election is when peaple vote for their parties or candidates.

Not always true. It can be defined in many unique ways.

For example, the US is not a direct democracy. "The people" do not elect the President.

The Electoral College does.

1. Every State has 2 Senators + Number of House of Representatives depending on population.
2. My State has 2 Senators + 10 Reps
3. 10 + 2 = 12.
4. My State's share in the Electoral College is 12 Electoral Votes
5. The State randomly picks 12 State Electors to officially participate in exercising those Electoral Votes (i.e. "official" election of President)

Basically citizens of 50 states go to the polls and by their choice signal to their "State Electors" in the Electoral College who most people in that State prefer for President.

The "State Electors" then exercise that wish according to the rules set by the State Legislature.

Most States like mine tell the "State Electors" to award all of my State's "Electoral Votes"(12) according to who has most votes. The "First Past the Post" gets 100% of my State's Electoral Votes.

Some States like Nebraska award them differently where the loser gets some.

Even still, a State Elector can go "rogue" and give their Electoral Vote to whoever they want regardless of who most people in the State told them to vote for.

The Electoral College doesn't always reflect the "Popular Vote" (or the total number of votes nationally).

Most recently Hillary Clinton won 3 Million more votes overall (what the rest of the world calls the "election") nationally...

...but she lost to Trump because he got more Electoral College votes (which amount to 80,000 people differemce in 3 States of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania).

He literally won the most national position even though nationally he received 3 million less votes. He did this by winning in the Electoral College just by 80,000 more votes in 3 States.

So "people" do not really or directly vote in the US.

What really elects the US President is an old, stupid 300 year old power-sharing method to get small states like Rhode Island to ratify the US constitution and join the US after defeating the British.

That's also why every State has 2 Senators even though Wyoming is about 500,000 and California is about 30 Million.

When the 13 colonies were uniting, everyone especially the small states were scared of domination by Virginia.

Virginia was the richest, biggest, most populous, and was the home of the top leaders (George Washington, Thomas Jefferson), etc.

Other States wanted guarantees the oppression of the British would not be traded for the oppression of Virginia.

So a very generous powersharing method was agreed to like 2 Senators for every State regardless of size, Electoral College to check geographical majoritarianism, the concept of 2/3 of States having to approve constitutional amendments as a last check, etc.

[theyuusuf143]

Are you suggesting that peaple in America don't vote. Election means peaple voting , it's all about the peaple and their participation. How can the Somalian peaple vote when they are occupied by alshabaab. Let's say it can be done in single district/ city like Mogadishu All candidates have no support base in Mogadishu . Some are from waqooyi whose their constituance is "occupied" by me. Do you have any solution for this . The 4.5 is huge employment sector in Somalia , if you alter it's against some one's personal interest. It can trigger a lot More problems than you expect. We know farmaajo wants to exploit the IDPs but the abgaal won't accept any result of that kind of sham election in their own goof.

[Caytame]

this nigga writes like his words have some sort of impact on how things unfold in the real world. smh

[Nubis]

Insightful topic.