thoughts on the mogadishu conference

[Nomand]

having thought about it, i think no one really won. if i was to give an edge to anyone it would be farmaajo. because of these three major things.

1) every federal state will atleast have 2 different cities where mp's can be elected from.
2) this deal will go back to the Parliament for approval
3) somaliland mps will be elected in mogadishu

number 1 is really only about jubbaland and puntland. if you read the words from the statements carefully it says the qabils can choice either one of the two places. for jubbaland one will be kismaayo and the other garbahareey which means a lot of clans will take their seat there.

puntland it gets very muddy because it could be laascaanond and garowe or garowe and bosaso, however both warsangali and dhulbahante can argue that most of their land is controlled by somaliland and thus their seats taken to xamar. so they have a card to play there.

where the federal states won is in the senate parliament which means the likes of fartag will be back.

but what do i expect, i fully expect the parliament to either alter the deal or reject it.

[Nomand]

my point is a lot of grenades where thrown in there, for example.

where does the border of somaliland start and end? does it end in sanaag and sool like puntland would like? or in bari and nugaal?
dhulbahante and warsangali mps are they part of somaliland or puntland? if they are part of somaliland then their seats are taken to xamar
what if the parliament rejects the deal?
what if the government and federal states do not see eye to eye on who can take their seat where.

[paperino]

having thought about it, i think no one really won. if i was to give an edge to anyone it would be farmaajo. because of these three major things.

1) every federal state will atleast have 2 different cities where mp's can be elected from.
2) this deal will go back to the Parliament for approval
3) somaliland mps will be elected in mogadishu

number 1 is really only about jubbaland and puntland. if you read the words from the statements carefully it says the qabils can choice either one of the two places. for jubbaland one will be kismaayo and the other garbahareey which means a lot of clans will take their seat there.

puntland it gets very muddy because it could be laascaanond and garowe or garowe and bosaso, however both warsangali and dhulbahante can argue that most of their land is controlled by somaliland and thus their seats taken to xamar. so they have a card to play there.

where the federal states won is in the senate parliament which means the likes of fartag will be back.

but what do i expect, i fully expect the parliament to either alter the deal or reject it.

Interesting analysis. I think #2 is big win for president Farmaajo. If you remember his speech before he went to Samareeb for shirkii 3xaad, any agreements would be subject to the parliament's approval. With the appointment of the new prime minister, I'm curious about madasha's next move; are they gonna continue on setting up the parallel government they threatened about?

[UgaaskaBarakaysan]

It's good that there will be two different cities where mps will be chosen from in each FMS. I also like that the somaliland mps will be elected from xamar and the deal going to parliament will give the FGS an opportunity to give this deal a mandate.

The international community will definitely view this as a consensus agreement and will know that the current administration is willing to compromise for the greater good and stability of the nation. All in all this has been interesting but there is still a lot of backroom decisions to be made before this is on the President's desk for approval.

[Nomand]

having thought about it, i think no one really won. if i was to give an edge to anyone it would be farmaajo. because of these three major things.

1) every federal state will atleast have 2 different cities where mp's can be elected from.
2) this deal will go back to the Parliament for approval
3) somaliland mps will be elected in mogadishu

number 1 is really only about jubbaland and puntland. if you read the words from the statements carefully it says the qabils can choice either one of the two places. for jubbaland one will be kismaayo and the other garbahareey which means a lot of clans will take their seat there.

puntland it gets very muddy because it could be laascaanond and garowe or garowe and bosaso, however both warsangali and dhulbahante can argue that most of their land is controlled by somaliland and thus their seats taken to xamar. so they have a card to play there.

where the federal states won is in the senate parliament which means the likes of fartag will be back.

but what do i expect, i fully expect the parliament to either alter the deal or reject it.

Interesting analysis. I think #2 is big win for president Farmaajo. If you remember his speech before he went to Samareeb for shirkii 3xaad, any agreements would be subject to the parliament's approval. With the appointment of the new prime minister, I'm curious about madasha's next move; are they gonna continue on setting up the parallel government they threatened about?

parallel government was always a big joke look at when qoor qoor got first elected there where suppose to be 3 presidents and within 2 weeks all that was resolved.

but now that farmaajo named a PM i think it is less likely that the Parliament will reject the agreement , because if the deal is rejected then another rounds of conferences will take place and the PM will be involved which President Farmaajo does not want.

however what farmaajo should have done is insist on each federal state to bring their VP to the meeting for a more inclusive outcome. that might be a card he could play if parliament rejects the deal. imagine the VP of puntland, he would insist on more then 2 cities per federal state, same with galmudug.

[Nomand]

It's good that there will be two different cities where mps will be chosen from in each FMS. I also like that the somaliland mps will be elected from xamar and the deal going to parliament will give the FGS an opportunity to give this deal a mandate.

The international community will definitely view this as a consensus agreement and will know that the current administration is willing to compromise for the greater good and stability of the nation. All in all this has been interesting but there is still a lot of backroom decisions to be made before this is on the President's desk for approval.

for madoobe this is a complete loss for him. upper house has been made null by the speaker when he gave his job to the federal states. these discussions where suppose to be between the government and both parliament and the upper Parliament was suppose to represent the federal states.

in jubbaland it will be kismaayo and garbahareey. and even in kismaayo. kismaayo 2020 is not like kismaayo 2017. madoobe lost a lot of power there.

as for puntland i think it will be very hard for them to argue that 2 cities should both be bosaso and garowe and at the same time dhulbahante and warsangeli should go there. my guess would be puntland will need to make a decision here that will define her borders for generations. if they insist on bosaso and garowe the government can simply say both sool and sanaag are part of somaliland and recgonise that as the border between somaliland and puntland.

as for the international community, sxb they are all failed politicians or NGO's whose sole purpose is to make money. and if kenya and UAE is willing to give money they will side with them.

[Nomand]

[paperino]

I also like that the somaliland mps will be elected from xamar and the deal going to parliament will give the FGS an opportunity to give this deal a mandate.

Doesn't that contradict the agreement that states mps should be elected from 2 different cities of a region?

but now that farmaajo named a PM i think it is less likely that the Parliament will reject the agreement , because if the deal is rejected then another rounds of conferences will take place and the PM will be involved which President Farmaajo does not want.

What are president Farmaajo's chances of an extension?

[Caytame]

Of course you would. Your time on here is dedicated on spinning every L dear uncle receives. lol


Feb 8: after a new president has been elected:
Nomand:
"That was a win for Farmaajo"

[Somaliweeyn007]

Fahad will probably kill this deal in Parliament, a big waste of time.

[paperino]

Fahad will probably kill this deal in Parliament, a big waste of time.

Elaborate Fahad's possible motive(s) for killing it.

[juelz]

Keep dreaming , this was a reality check for nabar iyo naxdin and their thugs bent on destroying peace and stability in the motherland.

[Somaliweeyn007]

Fahad will probably kill this deal in Parliament, a big waste of time.

Elaborate Fahad's possible motive(s) for killing it.

He seems to support a Centralist style, just check out how he bought the Parliament.

[paperino]

He seems to support a Centralist style, just check out how he bought the Parliament.

Is this how someone with a Centralist style usually behaves?

[Somaliweeyn007]

He seems to support a Centralist style, just check out how he bought the Parliament.

Is this how someone with a Centralist style usually behaves?

Fahad is like a shadow dictator more than a centralist now that I think about it