Isaias Afwerki, the mastermind behind the Ethiopian civil war and expect the same in Somalia

[Caytame]

For a long time, we didn't know what afwerki, abiye and farmaajo discussed in their meetings. Farmaajo said nothing, while abiye was on Ethiopian national TV saying Somalia will join Ethiopia, Ethiopia shouldn't be landlocked while Somalia has so much coastline that it doesn't even use, there's no reason to have two armies and economies etc....However, what he was leaving out, probably avoiding to anger amharas was that this horn integration would include Eritrea as well. How? Afwerki is already a dictator in eritrea, and he has exactly zero opposition there, if both Ethiopia and Somalia could do the same, then both abiye and farmaajo would mold into full blown dictator like afwerki. After achieving this goal, it would be easier to implement whatever policies the three men want since they'd only have to deal with each other. However, to do this, Ethiopia would have to get Tigray to fall in line since they have so much influence and power, and now afwerki is helping them do just that which means this war was planned. Couple this with the Ethiopian commandos sent to kismaayo to capture axmed madoobe, the Ethiopian soldiers sent to Gedo and, Baydhabo to rig the election in farmaajo's favor, and the troops trained in Eritrea for farmaajo who have now since returned to xamar, and everything becomes clearer. They met help each other stay in power, quell all 'rebel' groups in each other's country and the other two would help in this, farmaajo labelling onlf as a terrorist organization(to help abiye) comes to mind, I guess returning the favor of abiye sending his soldiers to get farmaajo reelected. Now tigray has already being labelled as a terrorist group in both Ethiopia and Eritreat.

if Abiye wins this war, you can expect a full scale war on JL first, then PL, and farmaajo will attempt to replace both with yes men like he did in other states, like abiye did in Ethiopia. This also hinges on farmaajo winning reelection.

[grandpakhalif]

Utter nonsense, Eritrea would never expend her troops in Somalia nor shall Ethiopia have the will or the finances to scale a full on assault in JL or PL after the civil war with TPLF. Sounds like paranoid nonsense to me, it seems like mucaraadka are getting worried that Farmaajo re election is anything but guaranteed.

[BigBreak]

The logic according to the national leaders is that to achieve integration in the Horn, it is important that each country must first become highly centralized under one strongman. However this is a flawed logic because only a government and political system that is democratic is the prerequisite to make integration a real and sustainable possibility. Just look at how the democratic EU succeeded whilst the autocratic GCC collapsed from 2017 onwards

Somalia shouldn't do any kind of integration with any other country because it should focus on becoming a de dacto confederation whereby all FMSs have most of the power and a weak central government that merely acts as an agent for the FMSs, serving at their pleasure

[grandpakhalif]

The logic according to the national leaders is that to achieve integration in the Horn, it is important that each country must first become highly centralized under one strongman. However this is a flawed logic because only a government and political system that is democratic is the prerequisite to make integration a real and sustainable possibility. Just look at how the democratic EU succeeded whilst the autocratic GCC collapsed from 2017 onwards

Somalia shouldn't do any kind of integration with any other country because it should focus on becoming a de dacto confederation whereby all FMSs have most of the power and a weak central government that merely acts as an agent for the FMSs, serving at their pleasure

This is ridiculous Farmaajo cant even hold 1m1v nor does he have the capacity to fight AS let alone SL all the way in the north, this is simply a pipedream.

[BigBreak]

I'm not talking about my country Somaliland or the soon to be evicted Mooge, I am looking at the Horn as a whole and the long term for my neighbour Somalia

[Caytame]

Utter nonsense, Eritrea would never expend her troops in Somalia nor shall Ethiopia have the will or the finances to scale a full on assault in JL or PL after the civil war with TPLF. Sounds like paranoid nonsense to me, it seems like mucaraadka are getting worried that Farmaajo re election is anything but guaranteed.

xooloow, you misunderstood lol.
Ethiopia and Eritrea would help install farmaajo as a dictator by rigging all member state elections in his favor. He already appointed his own men in GM, Hirshabeele and KG, which leaves JL and PL. Ethiopia did help him get laftagreen installed as president in KG. The IC is heavily invested in Somalia, and this federal system form of governance was their idea, but it seems the unholy trinity of farmaajo, afwerki and abiye are looking for ways to circumvent that by making sure both ethiopia, and somalia are only a federal system in name. They can do this by appointing their own YES BOSS type of puppets in each regional state, and in fact that's exactly what both have done. Abiye appointed puppets in oromo, amhara and somali region already who will do anything he says, and farmaajo did the same everywhere except for PL and JL.

It seems farmaajo also knows his biggest obstacle to this isn't PL or JL, but hawiye which is why he hasn't destroyed these two states whereas he destroyed the hawiye and raxanwayne states without hesitation. it also explains why he didn't bite despite marehan pushing him to assasinate or arrest axmed madoobe, the likes of goonjeex, the sade ugaas etc... advised him to do that and he didn't bite because he knows if he's not reelected, burning all bridges with ogaden is the final nail to the coffin that buries him and his clan together. He is smarter than I thought.

This also tells me he's not exactly confident that he will reelection because he if he knew that, he would have invaded kismaayo already with Ethiopia's help.

[grandpakhalif]

Utter nonsense, Eritrea would never expend her troops in Somalia nor shall Ethiopia have the will or the finances to scale a full on assault in JL or PL after the civil war with TPLF. Sounds like paranoid nonsense to me, it seems like mucaraadka are getting worried that Farmaajo re election is anything but guaranteed.

xooloow, you misunderstood lol.
Ethiopia and Eritrea would help install farmaajo as a dictator by rigging all member state elections in his favor. He already appointed his own men in GM, Hirshabeele and KG, which leaves JL and PL. Ethiopia did help him get laftagreen installed as president in KG. The IC is heavily invested in Somalia, and this federal system form of governance was their idea, but it seems the unholy trinity of farmaajo, afwerki and abiye are looking for ways to circumvent that by making sure both ethiopia, and somalia are only a federal system in name. They can do this by appointing their own YES BOSS type of puppets in each regional state, and in fact that's exactly what both have done. Abiye appointed puppets in oromo, amhara and somali region already who will do anything he says, and farmaajo did the same everywhere except for PL and JL.

It seems farmaajo also knows his biggest obstacle to this isn't PL or JL, but hawiye which is why he hasn't destroyed these two states whereas he destroyed the hawiye and raxanwayne states without hesitation. it also explains why he didn't bite despite marehan pushing him to assasinate or arrest axmed madoobe, the likes of goonjeex, the sade ugaas etc... advised him to do that and he didn't bite because he knows if he's not reelected, destroying the only two darood states of which one marehan is part of, he loses, his clan loses and his enemies(hawiye) get the W. Farmaajo is more daroodist than I thought

Wow, you maybe onto something, you even praised Farmaajo as being daroodist as if such a thing exists? And how will Eritrea intervene in Somalia? Under AMISOM mandate?

[Caytame]

Utter nonsense, Eritrea would never expend her troops in Somalia nor shall Ethiopia have the will or the finances to scale a full on assault in JL or PL after the civil war with TPLF. Sounds like paranoid nonsense to me, it seems like mucaraadka are getting worried that Farmaajo re election is anything but guaranteed.

xooloow, you misunderstood lol.
Ethiopia and Eritrea would help install farmaajo as a dictator by rigging all member state elections in his favor. He already appointed his own men in GM, Hirshabeele and KG, which leaves JL and PL. Ethiopia did help him get laftagreen installed as president in KG. The IC is heavily invested in Somalia, and this federal system form of governance was their idea, but it seems the unholy trinity of farmaajo, afwerki and abiye are looking for ways to circumvent that by making sure both ethiopia, and somalia are only a federal system in name. They can do this by appointing their own YES BOSS type of puppets in each regional state, and in fact that's exactly what both have done. Abiye appointed puppets in oromo, amhara and somali region already who will do anything he says, and farmaajo did the same everywhere except for PL and JL.

It seems farmaajo also knows his biggest obstacle to this isn't PL or JL, but hawiye which is why he hasn't destroyed these two states whereas he destroyed the hawiye and raxanwayne states without hesitation. it also explains why he didn't bite despite marehan pushing him to assasinate or arrest axmed madoobe, the likes of goonjeex, the sade ugaas etc... advised him to do that and he didn't bite because he knows if he's not reelected, destroying the only two darood states of which one marehan is part of, he loses, his clan loses and his enemies(hawiye) get the W. Farmaajo is more daroodist than I thought

Wow, you maybe onto something, you even praised Farmaajo as being daroodist as if such a thing exists? And how will Eritrea intervene in Somalia? Under AMISOM mandate?

afwerki and abiye would rather deal with farmaajo regarding national policies, like the rumored ports, free movement of people etc... but first he has to have zero opposition inside somalia. eritrea already trained a lot of his soldiers, and ethiopia deployed their soldiers to gedo and elsewhere like baydhabo to help him. it seems to me he wants to take jL without a fight, just to make sure if he isn't reelected, he doesn't deliver a divided JL to a hawiye presidnet, whereas hawiyes would have stable GM, hirshabeele and a representation in banaadir plus the presidency. He's not as dumb i thought. marehan and farmaajo are playing two completely different games, and it seems farmaajo is more daroodist than most in his clan.

[grandpakhalif]

xooloow, you misunderstood lol.
Ethiopia and Eritrea would help install farmaajo as a dictator by rigging all member state elections in his favor. He already appointed his own men in GM, Hirshabeele and KG, which leaves JL and PL. Ethiopia did help him get laftagreen installed as president in KG. The IC is heavily invested in Somalia, and this federal system form of governance was their idea, but it seems the unholy trinity of farmaajo, afwerki and abiye are looking for ways to circumvent that by making sure both ethiopia, and somalia are only a federal system in name. They can do this by appointing their own YES BOSS type of puppets in each regional state, and in fact that's exactly what both have done. Abiye appointed puppets in oromo, amhara and somali region already who will do anything he says, and farmaajo did the same everywhere except for PL and JL.

It seems farmaajo also knows his biggest obstacle to this isn't PL or JL, but hawiye which is why he hasn't destroyed these two states whereas he destroyed the hawiye and raxanwayne states without hesitation. it also explains why he didn't bite despite marehan pushing him to assasinate or arrest axmed madoobe, the likes of goonjeex, the sade ugaas etc... advised him to do that and he didn't bite because he knows if he's not reelected, destroying the only two darood states of which one marehan is part of, he loses, his clan loses and his enemies(hawiye) get the W. Farmaajo is more daroodist than I thought

Wow, you maybe onto something, you even praised Farmaajo as being daroodist as if such a thing exists? And how will Eritrea intervene in Somalia? Under AMISOM mandate?

afwerki and abiye would rather deal with farmaajo regarding national policies, like the rumored ports, free movement of people etc... but first he has to have zero opposition inside somalia. eritrea already trained a lot of his soldiers, and ethiopia deployed their soldiers to gedo and elsewhere like baydhabo to help him. it seems to me he wants to take jL without a fight, just to make sure he isn't reelected, he doesn't deliver a divided JL to a hawiye presidnet, whereas hawiyes would have stable GM, hirshabeele and a representation in banaadir plus the presidency. He's not as dumb i thought.

How about the Kenya factor? I dont think they would simply let Habeshi troops roll over their strongman in Kismaayo? How would Abby and Afewerki deal with that problem since JL is essential to Kenyan security

[Caytame]

Wow, you maybe onto something, you even praised Farmaajo as being daroodist as if such a thing exists? And how will Eritrea intervene in Somalia? Under AMISOM mandate?

afwerki and abiye would rather deal with farmaajo regarding national policies, like the rumored ports, free movement of people etc... but first he has to have zero opposition inside somalia. eritrea already trained a lot of his soldiers, and ethiopia deployed their soldiers to gedo and elsewhere like baydhabo to help him. it seems to me he wants to take jL without a fight, just to make sure he isn't reelected, he doesn't deliver a divided JL to a hawiye presidnet, whereas hawiyes would have stable GM, hirshabeele and a representation in banaadir plus the presidency. He's not as dumb i thought.

How about the Kenya factor? I dont think they would simply let Habeshi troops roll over their strongman in Kismaayo? How would Abby and Afewerki deal with that problem since JL is essential to Kenyan security

Everybody knows kenya can't fight, they never fought a war of course they would lose. the truth is, kenya doesn't have a lot of power in JL, it's ahmed madoobe's milita that control the airport, and the ports. Kenya is only there to "fight" alshabab, to fill IC's quota. also kenya is where ahmed madoob

I also remembe axmed madoobe threatening hsm during his tenure, but I haven't seen him attack farmaajo with the same venom. Also, hsm did army AS and barre hiiraale and attacked kismaayo, while farmaajo, despite sending Ethiopian commandos, didn't really and directly attack axmed madoobe or kismaayo which is why he is attempting to take Gedo and JL without fighting.
I have a feeling they both agreed on this, to fight with everything except to start an ogaden vs marehan war.

[gobdoon]

I'm not talking about my country Somaliland or the soon to be evicted Mooge, I am looking at the Horn as a whole and the long term for my neighbour Somalia

You have no country you are dellusional refugee cunt

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

More Matt Bryden and Rashid Boran Sahan qashin. LMAO

[BigBreak]

Dhabayaco are gonna get their asses whooped can't wait

[Caytame]

^they won't. Farmaajo is bracing for a scenario where he doesn't get reelected, in his mind, it seems like he knows marehan are darood ku nool, the wagardhacs in saaxo are protected by PL and Liyuu police OGs, the ones in JL have got OG as allies. The last thing farmaajo wants is to burn all bridges with darood, especially in a world where he loses reelection. The dummies from Gedo here don't really understand it all.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]