My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

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My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by Voltage »

So I predict Beledweyne will become the end of the civil war---when HAG rioted against an HAG governor because of his sub-clan while the D-block President was the one each side depended on to enforce their case against the other---especially the rioters!

For some time now, probably the most odd and confusing aspect of Somali politics was sort of represented by Sahal.

He says something like;

"Beledweyne Revolution begins, now Xamar clan should follow this direction and learn how to stand up to Mooge!"


Ok, but let's back track a little;

1. Beledweyne protestors are not against Farmaajo. In the videos they are "appealing" to what they call "their president" Farmaajo.

2. Beledweyne protestors are not against an election or a process or a policy. They did not protest then, but they are protesting now.

3. What is happening "now" is Guudlaawe who is of the "Xamar" clan is coming to Beled-Weyne as Federal Governor. This is why riots happened.

So why does Sahal make a mockery of the "Xamar clan?"

I used to think this was insult to injury.

How can you be against "them" in your home, but you grift after them and try to use them elsewhere?

I now realize that "HAG" itself is a strategy within "H-clan" that is based on exploiting the "Xamar clan."

To better explain;

1. Hawiye is one out of a number of Somali clans; it is usually in competition with "Darod" for Somali leadership.

This is the Horizontal threat: Hawiye vs Other clans or Hawiye vs. Darod mostly

2. Hawiye is composed of many sub-clans, and unlike Darod for example, Hawiye is very centralized due to location and hierarchy. Something becomes "Hawiye" only if the single dominant Abgal clan gives blessing and joins----otherwise it is not a Hawiye issue but a sub-clan issue.

This is the Vertical Threat: Hawiye vs Hawiye or Abgal vs. Other Hawiye

3. Lower down the Hawiye hierarchy you go, the more Abgal domination is seen as needing to be "controlled" as much as the non-Hawiye or horizontal threats.

But you can't "control" the beast by force, so you either;

A. appeal to it (in the name of Mudulood)
B. cajole or tickle it (in the name of Hirab)
C. manipulate its interests (in the name of HAG)

This is why Sahal is always careful about directly identifying Abgal as the target/enemy and goes out of his way to bring in "Darod/Mooge/National Politics"----even when it is very clear beyond a doubt like in the Beled-Weyne riots, the target is Abgal as a vertical threat to Sahal's clan.

He is very careful---out of fear, not love----because the strategy only succeeds by exploiting Abgal (usually with the Horizontal/Darod threat) to manipulate its interests ("Xamar should follow Beled-Weyne protests!").


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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by Murax »

The reaction to Voltage’s breakdowns of interns in DC working for Brookings Institute, council on foreign relations who’ve been assigned the unenviable task of briefing on the dynamics of the Somali conflict.



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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by juelz »

Voltage your time of divide and rule is over. Farmaajo is trying to create conflict b/w Abgaal and xawaadle. This is from the old playbook of siyaad barre. The difference here is siyaad barre had real power and had the Somali army under his command what does farmaajo have African Union peacekeepers, give me a fing break. This will end really bad the way things are headed.
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by BigBreak »

I've yet to witness a reer ilkoyar come out against the undeniable failure that is Farmajo. Blindly supporting a fellow clansman is why Somalia became and remains a broken failed state that only exists on paper
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by paperino »

juelz wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:51 am Voltage your time of divide and rule is over. Farmaajo is trying to create conflict b/w Abgaal and xawaadle. This is from the old playbook of siyaad barre. The difference here is siyaad barre had real power and had the Somali army under his command what does farmaajo have African Union peacekeepers, give me a fing break. This will end really bad the way things are headed.
Elaborate 'will end really bad.' Do you mean civil war? If so, Farmaajo doesn't have real power nor command the army per your claim, so whose forces are gonna fight & cause a civil war?
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by SultanOrder »

Opportunistic and Exploitative are the best words to describe Sahal’s mindstate. He wants his particular clans grievance to be legitimized by making it a referendum against Farmaajo by having Xamar rise up. If Xamar rose up it would also cement the “gentleman’s agreement” to the previous state. The guy wants to go back in time when Waare was president and he thought it unthinkable for Xawaadle to be in the situation it is today. But the reality is that Xawaadle is not subtle by: directly attacking Guudlaawe by forcing him not to visit Beledwayne, attacking Hirshabelle by calling for Hiiraan state, and attacking other local clans through Xuud and his 1991 style threats.

The truth is Abgal always felt entitled to the capital and the presidency. They might not even support Guudlaawe and Farmaajo but they support the destruction of a fake agreement that restores their rightful position. Abgal is thinking about the long term, after Guudlaawe and Farmaajo. And the long term has them situated as the undisputed leader of Hirshabelle. So why the hell would they start a fight against Farmaajo for Xawaadle’s interests?
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by BigBreak »

Abgaal shouldn't be ruling Hiirshabelle, only Hawadle should be ruling HS state and Beledweyne should be the permanent capital city/seat of government of HS. If everyone in :som: accepted that only one sub clan/sub sub clan was allowed to rule each FMS coupled with :som: adopting UAE style confederalism, this country would be much more politically stable and therefore closer to making a full recovery after decades of war and failure
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by Voltage »

Murax, when people have asked why are Abgaal the people nowhere to be seen when Hassan Sh/Sh Shariif are calling for public uprising----there is your answer.
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by AbkoowDhiblaawe »

Voltage wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:30 am Murax, when people have asked why are Abgaal the people nowhere to be seen when Hassan Sh/Sh Shariif are calling for public uprising----there is your answer.
For being in xamar you are extremely clueless. Xamar waa keento, koriso,kibriso iyo kufiso. You won't know what hit you.

Remember when I said there will be 2 governments in xamar. Paralell process by mucaarad? Remember how u said i was clueless,?

Guddiga badbaadada qaranka are appointed. 4 generals are appointed by mucaarad, Gen Gacmadulle, Gen Koronto,Indhacadde iyo gen Saney abdulle.

8th February xamar 2 dowladd bey yeelanee.

Since u are in xamar u can also verify that the prices of weapons has increased with 50%. ;)
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by Voltage »

Abkoow, I think you have a problem "understanding" bro. I don't care what the opposition is saying, I told you they are just "two men in a hotel", there is nothing called a "parallel election" happening.
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by AbkoowDhiblaawe »

Voltage wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:22 pm Abkoow, I think you have a problem "understanding" bro. I don't care what the opposition is saying, I told you they are just "two men in a hotel", there is nothing called a "parallel election" happening.
Again you are you showing your ignorance. It's actually the opposite Farmaajo is alone. While mucaaradka have the civil society,Business elite, professionals on their side.

Farmaajo couldn't even go to a ceremony in tiyastarka yesterday due to safety issues. Tiyaatarka is literally the backyard of villa Somalia. Nin aan madaxtooyada kasoo bixi karin ha no Faanin.
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by BigBreak »

It's happening again isn't it, we're back to January 1991 :lol:
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by 1moonlight »

AbkoowDhiblaawe wrote: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:44 am
Voltage wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:22 pm Abkoow, I think you have a problem "understanding" bro. I don't care what the opposition is saying, I told you they are just "two men in a hotel", there is nothing called a "parallel election" happening.
Again you are you showing your ignorance. It's actually the opposite Farmaajo is alone. While mucaaradka have the civil society,Business elite, professionals on their side.

Farmaajo couldn't even go to a ceremony in tiyastarka yesterday due to safety issues. Tiyaatarka is literally the backyard of villa Somalia. Nin aan madaxtooyada kasoo bixi karin ha no Faanin.
Xitaa Haweenka Soomaaliyeed ayaa dhibsaday mooryaan dayuus Farmaajo

Walee reerka dayuus Farmaajo inaan mar dambe wadankaan lagu aamini doonin

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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by AbkoowDhiblaawe »

1moonlight wrote: Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:25 am
AbkoowDhiblaawe wrote: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:44 am
Voltage wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:22 pm Abkoow, I think you have a problem "understanding" bro. I don't care what the opposition is saying, I told you they are just "two men in a hotel", there is nothing called a "parallel election" happening.
Again you are you showing your ignorance. It's actually the opposite Farmaajo is alone. While mucaaradka have the civil society,Business elite, professionals on their side.

Farmaajo couldn't even go to a ceremony in tiyastarka yesterday due to safety issues. Tiyaatarka is literally the backyard of villa Somalia. Nin aan madaxtooyada kasoo bixi karin ha no Faanin.
Xitaa Haweenka Soomaaliyeed ayaa dhibsaday mooryaan dayuus Farmaajo

Walee reerka dayuus Farmaajo inaan mar dambe wadankaan lagu aamini doonin

What's good abti? Long time no see. U back from Africa?
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Re: My diagram of HAG after anti-Guudlaawe Riots; the Vertical Threat exposed.

Post by 1moonlight »

AbkoowDhiblaawe wrote: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:54 pm
1moonlight wrote: Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:25 am
AbkoowDhiblaawe wrote: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:44 am

Again you are you showing your ignorance. It's actually the opposite Farmaajo is alone. While mucaaradka have the civil society,Business elite, professionals on their side.

Farmaajo couldn't even go to a ceremony in tiyastarka yesterday due to safety issues. Tiyaatarka is literally the backyard of villa Somalia. Nin aan madaxtooyada kasoo bixi karin ha no Faanin.
Xitaa Haweenka Soomaaliyeed ayaa dhibsaday mooryaan dayuus Farmaajo

Walee reerka dayuus Farmaajo inaan mar dambe wadankaan lagu aamini doonin

What's good abti? Long time no see. U back from Africa?
Good Abti

Yes I’m back
How are you?
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