Possible scenario february 8th 2021

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

[sahal80]

February 8 mooge will be nothing no one will be loyal to him at all and he has no his own army ahd he is fulay im sure he will run away before they closed the roads on him. Ciidanka murusade area kheyruu raacaa, Abgaal area Shariif uu raacaa, Ceyr area AAE uu raacaa. Mooge tiyaatarka xataa ma soo gaarayo.


the only problem is a war he wages against musharixiinta before his term ends using his legitimacy "to avoid parallel process" this could happen between December and january but there is some hope that Rooble will be against it.
Sh sharif has gone to the UAE and halane and Gandhi to Kenya maybe are looking for funds and Kheyre is in Russia and Maybe heading to Turkey. hassan sheekh and AAW is there.

this is my scenario of Mursal replacing Mooge aa interm president for one year. a deal like this will oust mooge. Mursal said yesterday they will be serving till a new parliament replaces them. once Mooge term ends Mursal will take the gloves off.





Mursal implies there wont be elections. "Hadii doorashada dhiciweyso maxaa la samaynayaa? anagaa buuxinaya faraaqa dastuuriga ah" doorasho aan lagu heshiin ma dhici karto taas meel ku qoro hadii lagu heshiiyana waqtiga harey kuma dhici karto oo ah 56 days from today.

[Caytame]

Abkoow: a war would still be bad for hawiye, because it'll be their city and shacab who will bear the brunt of any war.
I would suggests to the HAG team that they plan this out. without killing anyone, remove farmaajo.
also they'll need to do a lot of convincing on the parts of the hawiye soldiers that guard farmaajo, it's dumb to fight them since 90% are hawiye.
any removal of farmaajo that includes violence is bad for HAG and bad for Somalia.
dagaal qorshaysan isu diyaariya.
farmaajo looks to be full of cuqdad, and destroying xamar is exactly what he wants if he isn't coming back.

[Sbashi]

Hahaha. Warya follow the agreement reached in mogadishu there will be no other agreements made. hala dagaalo. Let's see if abgaal wanna qashin their city.

[BigBreak]

It will be a bloodless toppling of the loser Farmajo without much death or destruction in my opinion

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Abkoow: a war would still be bad for hawiye, because it'll be their city and shacab who will bear the brunt of any war.
I would suggests to the HAG team that they plan this out. without killing anyone, remove farmaajo.
also they'll need to do a lot of convincing on the parts of the hawiye soldiers that guard farmaajo, it's dumb to fight them since 90% are hawiye.
any removal of farmaajo that includes violence is bad for HAG and bad for Somalia.
dagaal qorshaysan isu diyaariya.
farmaajo looks to be full of cuqdad, and destroying xamar is exactly what he wants if he isn't coming back.

Farmaajo will loose his legitimacy in februari 8th. I doubt his red beret soldiers from gedo will defend him. No dagaal will happen ya lala dagaala?

[Caytame]

Abkoow: a war would still be bad for hawiye, because it'll be their city and shacab who will bear the brunt of any war.
I would suggests to the HAG team that they plan this out. without killing anyone, remove farmaajo.
also they'll need to do a lot of convincing on the parts of the hawiye soldiers that guard farmaajo, it's dumb to fight them since 90% are hawiye.
any removal of farmaajo that includes violence is bad for HAG and bad for Somalia.
dagaal qorshaysan isu diyaariya.
farmaajo looks to be full of cuqdad, and destroying xamar is exactly what he wants if he isn't coming back.

Farmaajo will loose his legitimacy in februari 8th. I doubt his red beret soldiers from gedo will defend him. No dagaal will happen ya lala dagaala?

he doesn't mind causing burning the city and killing people on his way out. you can tell he's full of cuqdad just by looking at home.

[original dervish]

Farmaajo has around 4000 non Hawiye soldiers whom were recruited and sent abroad to Qatar and Eritrea.

These soldiers, mostly kids, are slated to return to Xamar in January.

Farmaajo may be planning to use these soldiers to stay in power by force.

[paperino]

Abkoow: a war would still be bad for hawiye, because it'll be their city and shacab who will bear the brunt of any war.
I would suggests to the HAG team that they plan this out. without killing anyone, remove farmaajo.
also they'll need to do a lot of convincing on the parts of the hawiye soldiers that guard farmaajo, it's dumb to fight them since 90% are hawiye.
any removal of farmaajo that includes violence is bad for HAG and bad for Somalia.
dagaal qorshaysan isu diyaariya.
farmaajo looks to be full of cuqdad, and destroying xamar is exactly what he wants if he isn't coming back.

The opposition is incapable, militarily & intelligence-wise, of removing Farmaajo from power. They're also incapable of coming up with a plan.

[Caytame]

^wishes lol. wait and witness the humiliation kolay xishoon maysaane.

[gobdoon]

Like him or loath him I think Farmajo have enough supporters through out Somalia, mainly in Xamar, what they see in him I don't know
I can't see no war, something will give way, either way
Those advocating war and returning to civil war are simply making empty threats and I don't think they have the guts or the man power which could make him bolder and bolder and there is the possibility of him crushing them by using the army and his supporters or even letting Ethiopia get involved

[gobdoon]

So all and all Xamar people are tired and are sticking with the philosophy of bad government is better than no government are tired of war and know the consequences of civil war and don't buy the nonsense of Hawiye/HAG doctrine

[sahal80]

saan sheegay halkii scenario ee iska horimaadka keeni lahaa oo parallel elections ah waa ka baxay meesha oo waxaan sheegay in rajo xoogaa ah laga qabo rooble inuu arintaas ogolaan marka doorasho loo dhanyahay baa la galayaa laakiin Guudlaawe iyo Qoorqoor kuma eedeeyn kartid Mooge arin aad markii hore u hambalyeeysay ama ka aamustey. hadaad wax tari kartid ayaga badal, ku kac oo keenso rag xor ama wax ka keen. Gudiyadii la isku heestey askarta waa laga saarayaa laakiin kismaayo kama imaanayo mucaaradka madoobe sidoo kale garoowe kama imaanayo mucaaradla deni marka waa qasab in Jowhar iyo dhuusamareeb ay ka imaadaan taageerayaadha Mooge. yaa gardaran? siyaasiyiinta hiraab ee mucaaradka sheegta. Xamar intaad dagaal ka rideysid maad Jowhar qabsatid? the root of all evil.

Gedo iyo Hiiraan kama dhaceyso doorashada.