Kenya-Somaliland stunt: Either Uhuru is secretly helping Farmajo or might actually be parody of African banana republic

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Voltage
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Kenya-Somaliland stunt: Either Uhuru is secretly helping Farmajo or might actually be parody of African banana republic

Post by Voltage »

It is inexplicable from any direction I look at it.

  • Disclosure re:Somaliland: This is not about Somaliland independence or whether it was right/wrong to invite them from Somaliland's point of view.


Why in the world would Uhuru's Kenya invite Somaliland at all or invite them NOW?

It makes no sense at all.
  1. From the surface:
    1. Kenya is heavily invested in "Somalia."
      1. They are in Jubbaland State militarily.
      2. They have an administration in Jubbaland under their control.
      3. The control is predicated on AMISOM mission membership legitimizing their presence.
      4. The membership depends on Kenya not being seen as outwardly hostile or ill-intentioned towards Somalia
    2. This investment depends on Somalia domestic disagreement on the relationship with Kenya
    3. So even though President Farmaajo gov/versious communities in Somalia see Kenya as bad partner, the opposition Madasha/various communities take an opposing view for whatever reason.
    4. The Somaliland secession issue is universally opposed by Somalia's political consensus
    5. This means Uhuru Somaliland Stunt ends all domestic
      debate about Kenya and gives 100% legitimacy to those who view Kenya as a "bad partner."
  2. Why invite them NOW mere weeks away from election in Somalia?
    1. As I said, there is disagreement on Kenya between Farmaajo and Madasha Opposition.
    2. If Farmaajo loses, Kenya can have a "reset" with a new government.
    3. The Somaliland stunt now is a Christmas gift to Farmajo campaign
    4. The Parliament has now even come in to take up the entire Kenya conversation and give a national verdict
    5. The entire Kenya investment's legitimacy now rests on the position the Somalia Parliament takes.
    6. Not to mention the Madasha Opposition is now utterly humiliated and even silent on Farmajo cutting relations with Kenya.
Again, I just don't understand the strategy behind this for Kenya, particularly timing.

Either;

1. Uhuru in Kenya is secretly helping Farmaajo

OR;

2. Kenya under Uhuru has become a parody of the African banana republic buffooneery Kenya always feared.
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