1 yr ago: Gedo troops build up beyond temp response to Janan was explained + why "Gentlemen Agreement" had to go

[Gubbet]

Cheers

4. Finally, the troops thing; Jowhar and Balcad were LIBERATED and among the first places outside of Mogadishu. For 10 YEARS, 10 GOD DAMN YEARS, the so called army was primarily in the Benadir Region. I mean really put this into perspective. In 2030, is the army only supposed to STILL BE IN BENADIR?

As you know SECURITY REFORM is the single biggest legacy of this government. Security reform is more than just fighting. It is also about STRATEGY. Extensive RESEARCH has found two major reasons for Al Shabaab's persistence in the center of the country...a sort of triangle between Kismaayo -Baidoa -Ceelbuur.



A. FIRST REASON is the amount of diversity of clans, dialects, and even societies (practically all so called "minority groups" from Somali Bantu to farming cooperatives) present that feel EXCLUDED and MARGINALIZED. They are the biggest source of fighters and recruiters and even safe havens for Shabab. These people have EQUALITY and even dignity to be honest under Shabab who make no distinction based on all the whimsical social conditions we have put in place here on earth. The Somali Bantu or Eyle boy is the same as the Abgaal or Hawiye boy in the neighborhood. Maybe even more important on account of Shabaab dependent on the minority communities. These is why EVERYTIME THOSE AREAS WERE "CAPTURED, " THEY FELL BACK TO Shabaab the minute AMISOM and SNA moved on. That is because there is a POLITICAL AND SOCIO-CULTURAL more unique and prevalent here separate than all the other issues that were feeding insecurity generally.

2. The other reason is THE LANDSCAPE BELONGED TO SHABAAB AND NOT THE SNA AND AMISOM. Picture this when police come to a crime scene, what is the first thing they say?

100% every single time the first step is always "SPREAD OUT, SEAL OFF THE PERIMETER.

If you don't have the perimeters, what is the SCENE in CRIME SCENE? What is the ZONE in BATTLE ZONE? It is ridiculous just how much money, time, and resources have been wasted on such a predictable failure.

You control the perimeters and YOU CONTROL THE LANDSCAPES. You have the access points, the supply lines, you are always in offense NOT defense.

The perimeter has to be controlled from Central Somalia to Beled-Weyne to Bakool to Beled-Xaawo to Ceel-Waaq to Diif to Kismaayo to the Indian Ocean going up coast to Barawe to Mogadishu to Hobyo.

Once the perimeter is full under control, the SNA will move from EVERY SINGLE DIRECTION WITH SHABAAB NOWHERE TO RUN, ESCAPE, GET BACK UP, HIDE.

This time when the heartland is CAPTURED, the government also has a very strong and equitable INCLUSIVE STABILIZATION program.

Central Somalia and Gedo are really just the GUINEA PIGS to test the program out in less challenging condition (the area in central Somalia it has been tested is practically all Habar Gidir and Gedo is practically all Marehan).

The REAL challenge will be the "Gosha" area of Jubbaland (from Jamame and Jilib to Saakoow), the two Shabelle regions (Lower and Middle Shabelle) and the Hiran Region with the entire half west of the Shabelle River.

It is going to be very rocky interesting to see how this goes.

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 0#p4975141

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Time to bring back my xog culus threads I guess? I’ve been trolling too much and bashaaling too much lately. Back to my bread and butter.

For foreigners especially security experts reading this. This is the best security analysis you’ll get for free.