Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

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Gubbet
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Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by Gubbet »

So far Deni's non-participation was at Stage 1 "Conformity"...if they are no shows today it will be the first since the Transition ended that a stakeholder tests Stage 2 "Compliance"
  1. Conformity
    • This is about participation limited to the participants interpersonal relationship.
      • Up to now, Deni and Madoobe have not been on the same page as the rest of the September Agreement Signatories
    • This essentially means you are perfectly adhering to what is legitimate boundary even in disagreement.
  2. Compliance
    • This means participation is now subject to a direct guideline.
      • After exhausting Stage 1, Deni and Madobe are now in Mogadishu where the world including US Secretary of State directly weighed in. Going to the Consultative Meeting is a "set guideline." Not going = Non-compliance.
    • Non-compliance means failure to honor the terms of participation. At minimum, there has to be consequential of forfeiture of some privilege. It this was a Foreign Aid program, there would be immediate suspension of all non-essential aid.
  3. Obedience
    • This means participation is now subject to basic demand.
      • Deni and Madobe would reach this if they failed to do elections altogether. One group in this stage is Al Shabaab which is disobedient to the damand to renounce terrorism
    • Disobedience means forfeiture of all rights and privileges to participate.
Make no mistake that Stage 2 and Compliance will be risk if Deni and Madobe do not show up.

The question is what will be the consequential privilege they will forfeit?

Non-compliance has to have a minimum price.
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by grandpakhalif »

Can you simplify Stage 2? Surely consequences shall be insurmountable in Stage 3 but what does Stage 2 entail? Another scathing press releasr just wont cut it
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by Sbashi »

There has to be severe consequences especially for Madoobe who the IC forced Farmaajo to recognize.
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by Gubbet »

That's the thing Grandpa, no one can actually foretell what the consequence of Stage 2.

For example, at Stage 3--like you said, it's clear what the price for disobedience is---> lose ALL privileges and rights for participation

At Stage 1, similarly it's clear there is NO structural price to pay as all ALL rights and privileges are still protected. The only price involved is personal and subjective like being attacked by Nabad and Nolol on social media.

But in Stage 2---one is both still a participant but in breach of terms of participation aka non-compliance. non-compliance requires PROBATION---the problem is PROBATION is subject to "discretion" or what the authority deems acceptable. This is why being non-compliant with a foreign aid agreement doesn't kill the program, but may stop all non-essential support. What is non-essential though? Depending on where and how you live, non-essential is up for discretion---stopping aid to a development scheme that has to do with energy impacts someone in cold climate differently than someone on the equator.

So in Stage 2, the ambiguity of being in but not in Compliance can only by answered by what the authority thinks is acceptable price to pay.

That a price will be paid is what is known for sure---what that price is has to be judgef by authority

Which is why I am interested to find out if this will be answered by identification of "spoiler"
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by BigBreak »

Without expressing a preference for what happens I fully expect Deni and Madobe to leave Xamar without any trouble and return to their respective state capitals
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by Gubbet »

BigBreak wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:26 am Without expressing a preference for what happens I fully expect Deni and Madobe to leave Xamar without any trouble and return to their respective state capitals
And why would they not? Don't let my tongue in cheek "sanctions" get to you.

All this is part of negotiations, verbal and non-verbal cues is just jostling around at the point of "clarification."

No one is going to "physically" do or prevent Madoobe and Deni from anything. If that was an option, none of this would even be wasting our time but as such it is not and never will be.

However, it is pretty serious state when Deni and Madoobe are playing footsie with Stage 2 and I sure you there will be consequences for that. Your entire participation as a legitimate political actor has basic/minimum level of expectation and they are playing at the edges of that expectation.
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by grandpakhalif »

Gubbet wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:13 am That's the thing Grandpa, no one can actually foretell what the consequence of Stage 2.

For example, at Stage 3--like you said, it's clear what the price for disobedience is---> lose ALL privileges and rights for participation

At Stage 1, similarly it's clear there is NO structural price to pay as all ALL rights and privileges are still protected. The only price involved is personal and subjective like being attacked by Nabad and Nolol on social media.

But in Stage 2---one is both still a participant but in breach of terms of participation aka non-compliance. non-compliance requires PROBATION---the problem is PROBATION is subject to "discretion" or what the authority deems acceptable. This is why being non-compliant with a foreign aid agreement doesn't kill the program, but may stop all non-essential support. What is non-essential though? Depending on where and how you live, non-essential is up for discretion---stopping aid to a development scheme that has to do with energy impacts someone in cold climate differently than someone on the equator.

So in Stage 2, the ambiguity of being in but not in Compliance can only by answered by what the authority thinks is acceptable price to pay.

That a price will be paid is what is known for sure---what that price is has to be judgef by authority

Which is why I am interested to find out if this will be answered by identification of "spoiler"
I am expecting a press release from the IC and US soon when DC reaches Noon time. Its gonna be huge.
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Re: Conformity vs Compliance vs Disobedience; If Deni & Madobe are no shows & odds being called spoiler -> sanctioned

Post by BigBreak »

Interesting Gubbet
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