I was speaking with my contact in a Western embassy to Somalia and he was clear "we are in a situation we don't like" he said.
I said explain.
He said "we are not the principal agents deciding what our relationship is with Farmaajo. "
I said what do you mean.
He said " It is a really odd situation to be in that reflects how fast things have changed in the region but also how blindsided we were by Farmaajo's deftness and ability to reorient the entire playing field."
I said "so you were unprepared?"
He said "Even our contingency planning reflects outdated models. It has gotten to the point that Farmaajo now has enough confidence to strategize for a post-primary role from us. "
What do you mean post-primary?
He said "Ethiopia virtually assures him of a protected back. The Turks virtually assure him of material and physical edge. The Qataris seem to have become even more supportive after the Gulf tensions cooled not less supportive. In fact, the funds Qatar was using in the Gulf embargo have not be withdrawn but switched to the Farmajo gov."
So are you saying " Farmaajo is too powerful now relative to Somalia?
He said "When I said post-primary, at this point we are only making sure that when the inevitable happens with this situation, we are in a relationship that we formed together as opposed to one we accept."
