my analysis on extension & IC backlash

[Nomand]

I will be honest here when i heard the term extension and the EU/USA backlash i thought it was a rash and emotional move by President Farmaajo. but then the more i thought about it the more it became clear, for 4 years Farmaajo has not shown one ounce of emotion based politics even when his opponents took things way to personal. Farmaajo has always taken things in a calculated way.

so what is it then, why did Farmaajo make such a bold move that can be interpreted as emotional and why now? I think to answer that first we must look at what is the international community, are they monolithic? what are the interest of each country when it comes to Somalia. First the international community have until now been monolithic when it comes Somalia specially sending out communique. But strangely the term extension communique has not been monolthic in-fact Amisom have not said anything yet while China and Russia have publicly backed the government.

so why is AMISOM silent when the budget of AMISOM is paid for by EU and USA surely AMISOM would have been the first to criticise the government. why in the middle of all of this did AMISOM say that the SNA will take over the security of Somalia From AMISOM in the coming months.



to answer why AMISOM is silent we have to look at the 3 biggest contributors towards AMISOM

1) uganda
2) burundi
3) Ethiopia

uganda's biggest investment partner is china

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 52909.html

Uganda Investment Authority (UIA), a state agency charged with investment promotion, said in its report that licensing of projects from January-March showed that China registered planned investment of 164 million U.S. dollars, which accounted for 54 percent of the total investment in the east African country.


both Ethiopia and Burundi are in similar position. i think Farmaajo got reinsurance from turkey, qatar, china , amisom countries and russia. and this was china giving the go ahead



and this is Russia go ahead



now we will see if Farmaajo can pull it off or if he fails.

[Gubbet]

Baraawo Baraawo

Beesha Sade ciyaalkooda xataa waa balaayo caqli miiran j/k

So you are almost correct, but off by intent. You got the HOW and WHAT, but the WHY is a little off.

Do you think you can look at this topic I made (AND MAY DID IT UNDERESTIMATE THE CONFIDENCE OF FARMAAJO TO GO THE PARLIAMENT EXTENSION ROUTE ) and tie in your observation with mine?

Hint; He is not discarding or replacing replacing as opposed to flexingan evolving power dynamic

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=402595

[grandpakhalif]

It mentions here amisom withdrawing by December 2021 very interesting if Farmaajo manages to be self reliant it would only increase his authority