Since even babies now see the game I saw, I'll tell you what Rashid Abdi knows but will never breath speak it

[Gubbet]

Fat chance in hell Farmaajo even originally went before Parliament with the bombshell of extensions game without at the very least having "informed" the Americans.

At the very LEAST----but most likely probable is they probably went before Parliament with the concurrence/greenlight of the US---at least the US but probably did include the UNSR.

Which in effect is really underscoring the degree to which everyone has reached the last level of patience with the 2 Governor's 1 month long maaweelo right there in Xamar.

I also would have been extremely surprised by the brazenness and quickness of loose talk about sanctiona in any other situation on Earth. That is not how the US functions as the world's only Superpower.

To do that normally would be extremely counter-productive to the "meaning" and assumptions behind the use of sanctions as a strong set of tools for punishment as a deterrent to armed conflict.

The US employs a range of tools of "compulsion" before ever getting to sanctions----otherwise as I said it would destroy the competitive edge of those sets of tools.

But the Sanctions was never being addressed to Government.

It was being prepared for the stage coming up----and the mentioning of it was already the deterrent to having to even deal with further shenanigans from the 2 Govs.

Well there you have it---the story is complete now.

[Gubbet]

1. Recall what I saida at the moment Parliament passed extensions and I said all I see is the table where September Agreement is being signed.

Read my back drop.

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 5#p4997386

Farmaajo is a genius wallahi

1. The extension has passed Parliament and has been signes.

2. It "EXISTS." There is literally nothing else that needs to be done for it to exist.

3. There isn't even a "February 8" deadline that needs to be gotten over.

4. It literally guarantees the International Community now fully utilize their role as "GUARANTORS" to force Deni and Madoobe to cut their jokes out and sign the September Agreement.

5. More over the huge public backlash as increased his political capital by 2X.

6. This guy has brought Western style tactics to domestic Somali politics.

2. Recall what I said when the odd, premature mentions of "sanctions" were mentioned---I said they ain't talking to no one but 2 particular people and this isn't the stage want to talk to them; that's STAGE 2 after going to the September Agreement table.

I am aware this may be beyond the understanding of amny of you.

The warnings contained in the "leveraging" (iC statements) are classive audience vs constituency examples;

The Audience (Everyone listening) hears: FARMAAJO AND FED GOVERNMENT ARE OUTSIDE THE LAW, IF THEY CROSS THE REDLINE, THEY WILL BE SANCTIONED!

The Constituency (Election group including Deni/Madobe & Madasha): STOP. ANY ESCALATION IN RESPONSE (PARALLEL ADMINISTRATION) WILL BE DEEMED SERIOUS OFFENSE AGAINST STANDING ORDER. IMMEDIATELY COME BACK TO THE TABLE AND CONCLUDE THE SEPTEMBER AGREEMENT.

Grandpa, the rule of thumb about "warnings" is they must come "before" the redline is crossed.

There were 3 redlines; No extension, No partial elections, and No parallel government.

But extension has now passed parliament. IT "EXISTS."

There is nothing else that needs to be done to make it "exist." No further action, no ceremony, not even any symbolism.

It just "EXISTS" by LAW the moment it PASSED Parliament and Farmaajo signed it.

You can't tell warn against something as a deterrent after the fact. It is like warning someone about stealing right after you have observed them to have stolen---pardon the example.

Basically, there can't be a "WARNING" of "sanctions AFTER the redline of extension has been crossed. It's irrelevant---extension now exists a legal matter. What else do they need to do to realize the threat of sanctions when they have to do nothing else to make the redline crossed exist.

WHAT HAS NOT BEEN CROSSED, HOWEVER, IS PARTIAL ELECTIONS AND PARALLEL GOVERNMENT.

Passing extension makes either of those issues outside the interest of the Farmaajo side.

What is left is Madasha and Deni/Madoobe who could attempt to respond to thr government by cross any of the remaining redlines.

So the referencing of WARNING is essentially "freeze" and "de-escalate" to the side that is relevant to escalation or carrying out retaliation.

With the point about leverage---leverage is shoring up a weakpoint or spot to intensify that reflexive powers impacted by that weakness.

So if our hands are too weak for a task, we leverage tools..if a problem isn't physical, we leverage our intelligence.

For the IC to bear down as strongly as possible on freezing any escalation by the other side, they have to shore up the perception they are "weak" on Farmaajo.


Do you get it?

It is like a parent teaching disclpline to an unruly child---for the parent to be fully authoritative over the child, the parent has to similarly admonish the better behaved child as an example for slight offensies that otherwise you wouldn't normally.

Sometimes you will wink at the better behaved kid saying "this is just for them, you can have some of that ice cream when I put this one to sleep.."

The more authority they want to express over Deni and Madoobe in finally endjng their shenanigans in the face of elections, they more " directness" we observe towards the government in these press releases which audience vs constituency easily shows you is not addressed to the government.

Basically this whole thing was "shoring up" the "credibility" of the Donors to be able to say to the 2 Governors----when they are all sitting around the table where the September Agreement will be signed-----" fock off and sign the God damn thing, we are way past the cute point of your little games"

[gobdoon]

Who is playing the games and dirty games Farmajo and the whole blame lays with him
Hands up his time is up, he must go and go quickly, in order to maintain if he got any credibility left

[Gubbet]

This topic is "mid-storyline" confirmation of the "beginning story-line" linked in 2nd post.

1. The "end-storyline" will be the signing of the September Agreement
2. Which we now "mid storyline" know is happening
3. YET----in the "beginning storyline" in the links when I said all this is leading to September Agreement signature everyone said "I only see EXTENSION which happened today."

IT.IS.EVIDENCE.OF.AN.OBSERVABLE.TRAJECTORY.THAT.EACH.INDIVIDUALLY.IS.RANDOM.OR.DISPARATE.BUT.VERY.CLEARLY.FROM.MY.ONGOING.PATTERN.SETTING.SHOWS.YOU.IS.A.LINKED.STORY.