Voltage's Prediction

[Sbashi]

https://www.radiodalsan.com/wararka-ida ... aawiishta/



Dishiishe have taken up arms. It's the juriile effect.

[SultanOrder]

Wallahi I stopped disagreeing or even questioning Voltage when everything he predicted came true.

1. He said the nomination of Finish was to handle Kaaraan and he would be the the best loyalist to Farmaajo, short of Lafta Gareen. Finish has had Kaaran with an iron grip.

They said Finish the USC WARLORD? We got our man in!

2. He said Qoorqoor and even CIID would become Pres and Vice President of Galmudug and they would be the ones to bring central Somalia to heel for Farmaajo.

They said Odawa or Mahad Salaad Galmudug? Get real! Then they said Qoorqoor the USC GAANDHERI? We got our man in!

3. He said Madoobe would not be allowed an inch of influence in Gedo and even that Farmaajo was prepared to go to war.

They said here comes Kenya to INVADE Garbahaarey and make Janan governor of Gedo. We got our man in!

4. He said February 12 nothing would change the status quo and if MM tried a stunt, it would be the end of their actual influence in Somalia.

They said we are going to OVERTHROW Farmaajo on 12 am the night before the 12.

5. He said Farmaajo will never sign Dhusamareb agreement ans give up Gedo over his dead body. Sure enough, Farmaajo took out Kheyre in the fastest vote in parliamentary history when he tried.

They said Farmaajo has been overwhelmed and Gedo was gone. The Donors would remove him from Gedo.

6. ON THE DAY OF THE EXTENSION VOTE Voltage said it is a ruse to get Deni and Madoobe to be pressured to sign the September Agreement and Farmaajo would get that soon. Sure enough after a year of hold up by Deni and Madoobe, in less than a month September Agreement was signed and completed.

They said the world is going to sanction Farmaajo! He is finally gone!

7. Voltage then said BEFORE THE SEPTEMBER AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED AND IN THE MIDDLE OF EXTENSION DEBATE that elections will start in 3 months by Summer. Elections did start.

They said what elections, we are kicking put this dictator who wants Extension? No one os signing any agreement with him.

8. Voltage then said the election is entirely in the control of Federal States and MM will realize how badly they misunderstood the process and how wrong they were to support Deni and Madoobe empowering FMS Presidents not one whose loyalty they have.

They said MM has the "money" and buying all the MPs.

9. Voltage said even when CBB were anti-Rooble, Farmaajo learned from the September Agreement problems and realized he needed GOOD COP/BAD COP inside of Government. Everytime Farmaajo plays "bad cop," Rooble comes in to play "Good Cop" process wise and voila Farmaajo gets everything he wanted from the opposition.

They are at Rooble will dethrone Farmaajo and take command of "amni" which is so asinine and unconstit it is not even part of discussion even if PM and President were really against each other.

10. Finally, Voltage said the mistake Deni did with Juriile will be his biggest undoing. He attacked not Juriile, not even Dashiishle, but he attacked the ELITE CONTRACT that made Puntland safe. Since then Deni lost the elders including his King who were activated by the dictatorship replacing the Elite Contract, he was defeated in military battle by his own Osman Mohamud cousin in Boosaaso of all places who was felt similarly, his election team leaders all resigned citing all kinds of charges, and militias will start rising up like as happening in this topic.

They said Deni is SUPREME and Puntland is not like the "dirty south."


Voltage is out of every single person and article or analysis that I have read in this process, the one person who has shown excellent and really unrivaled instinct and understanding of Somalia's political process.

I do not argue with him anymore. I listen to him.

[TarTar]

agree to most. but gotta disagree wit point 10. the only influence a dashishe man can get in budhcadland is wutever is granted by his mahamud saleban friend. wutever elite contract dat exist in Pland is between omar mahamud, osman mahamud, n isse mahamud. in that order


but my nigga voltage was right about governa deni getting whooped by tha elites of osman mahamud. deni come from tha weak bah dolbahanta subtribe of osman mahamud. his only shot at defeating burhan n diyana was help from omar mahamud or isse mahamud wasakhgali in west bosaso, siwakhron n tha rest of terrorist affiliated magertenland tribes was gunning for deni's head. deni thought of himself as AY whooping Burhan. he though AY was also from a small subtribe of omar mahamud. tha rer islan. n AY whooped Burhan. difference was rer islan mahad pretty much had tha rest of omar mahamud benind 'em. n omar mahamud whoop osman mahamud any day of tha week


i ain't so sure about point 1 neither. i think farmajo should choose harti abgal. give something to ma'ali SS or Ali Gedi. as long as farmajo got their loyalty, there won't be no mutiny in north Hamar. but so far it's working so i ain't worried about omar finish. yet

[SultanOrder]

Tartar, read again number #10

He attacked not Juriile, not even Dashiishle, but he attacked the ELITE CONTRACT that made Puntland safe.

You are stuck on Dashishe and clans.

This is basically how Voltage explained this issue to me before.

Yes, Puntland is based on clans and some clans are more powerful, but Puntland is built on an "Elite Contract" as Voltage explained. That Elite Contract is based on the idea the Puntland President does not set the policy of Puntland to Somalia, but he represents what the Elites of Puntland reach a consensus on.

Many of the Elites are from the clans that are the most powerful, but others, including some of the strongest, most respected, and even with the biggest influence can be individuals from smaller clans of Harti.

Juriile is one of the most respected and well regarded members of the upper branches of these "Elites."

Deni's attack on Juriile represented an attack on the Elite Contract and every member of the Elite was threatened regardless of their clan in Puntland community.

It was an attack on the "system" that made peace between Abdullahi Yusuf and Cadde Muuse and has kept Puntland united like a rock. They were never behind their leadership because they feared him, but because he REPRESENTED what they had already agreed upon and reached a consensus.

The Jurille attack was sort of like Deni starting to become De Medici when he started taking steps to dethrone the Signoria on Florence to become the undisputed "dictator." All of the Signoria (Puntland's Elite) saw threat.

V said "watch this reverberate in Puntland" and especially in Boosaaso, the biggest center with the most Elite in Puntland.

Since then what has happened?

1. Deni receives armed rebellion (which V said would have never happened if it had not been privately blessed by the Elite).
2. The elders including the King basically recognize and covertly give legitimacy to the rebellion.
3. Deni responds with a show of power.
4. Deni is humiliated beyond belief and stands down.
5. The emboldened Elite then neuter him WHILE HE IS IN MOGADISHU for election talks by choosing that time to take apart his legitimacy to represent Puntland elections (Chair and deputy Chair re-sign with sharp attacks on Deni).

V saw all of this and predicted it to all of us in detail here from one single little act which escaped everyone's attention namely the omission of one single guy from Puntland's Senate elections and a guy who is not even that well known publicly and is not even from a powerful clan in Puntland.

Voltage is a damn Somali political genius wallahi.

[STARKAST]

How low can you go to writing paragraphs to be posted on another account.

Everything stated is false as peace remains after 4 day skirmish.

Have your Priorities. MX is a IDP in Galmudug and Jubbaland. And Farmaajo is enemy no.1

[TarTar]

after look at tha elite contract angle i must agree. except for tha harti part. puntland ain't hartiland. it's magertenland. wasakhgali, dolbahanta, n dashishe get wutever magerten elites throw their way. dolbahanta know this. n they banned the ex pirate state. there must also be some element of lelkase elites involvement in Pland. def agree Deni failed after he was seen as a threat to Pland system of elite consesnsus

startkast Farmajo ain't a threat to u. he is ur ally n protector against al shabab wasakhgali in west bosaso n ISIL magertenlanders threatening to overthrow ur ex pirate province. tha feds saved governor Qorqor from Pland-sponsored sedition. i have no doubt if governa Deni asked for help against terrorists beheading magerten mayors, farmajo would help. ain't even gonna ur tribal disses when magertenland is literally tha empty quarter, tha least economically viable province in the ex italian colony. ur saved from becoming IDP of tribal wars 'cause governa Deni stopped deluding himself about Pland not being a tribal state built on tribal consensus. u just saw wut happen when Denis tries to overturn tribal consensus

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Dum spiro, spero dear brother.

[SultanOrder]

How low can you go to writing paragraphs to be posted on another account.

Everything stated is false as peace remains after 4 day skirmish.

Have your Priorities. MX is a IDP in Galmudug and Jubbaland. And Farmaajo is enemy no.1

For someone who has commented more about MX AND even posted more in Gedo section, you sure do get triggered by even the discussion of Puntland.