1. 4.5 survives without him and our qashin is elected instead of their qashin.

2. 4.5 collapses and Hawiye people will send Somaliland and Eelaay leachers back to their respective homes and create a Hawiye Parliament for people living between Marka and Galkacyo. They have the economy, the military to both run and protect their own interest.
Can they ban him before the election?
Yes they can, and it is the most preemptive and savvy thing to do. Relying a parliament that can be bought off by anyone without the back up local institutions is politically amateurish at best.
Treasonous cases that can be built against him:
A. Buying the parliament to illegally extending his term.
B. Attempting to overthrow the election process by removing the prime minister from office.
C. Conceding oil deals and selling national assets while out of office.
In both a and b Mogadishu opposition could have removed him from power by force but they were not decisive enough. By banning him now you would give yourself the luxury of bringing him out to the open and to finish him off. As usual politics is about decisiveness in the right moment.
Should be interesting
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