From Voltage: the new Speaker would like to legitimize Garbaharey MPs now, President Farmajo says NO.

[SultanOrder]

From V;

So G16 elections have taken place inspite of Ahmed Madoobe as we have been saying it would. These MPs have the legal case and they will be recognized to be the legitimate MPs of Gedo.

September Agreement is Law passed by Parliament and in the Law, there was 0 recourse for changing election location. You cannot overstate how important this fact is.

The G16 MPs also only went into election after Ahmed Madoobe broke the Law. Essentially they are a response to and not the cause for action Ahmed Madoobe took to break the law. You also cannot overstate the importance of this fact.

The elected Speaker Is Rahanweyn/Hadama/Shirmooge. He is from Bakool and one of the longest and most intimately connected Somali politicians to Ethiopia. Beyond that he is a longtime friend to G16 MP Canjeex Buule Gareed, the recent Governor of Gedo. Gov Canjeex was the DC of Luuq for the last 25 years and the single most powerful politician in Luuq affairs.

The Speaker has confirmed to Gov Canjeex that it is only matter of "when" the G16 MPs are legitimized pending release by the President.

President Farmaajo has upto this moment resolved to go into Presidential elections with the hold on G16. President Farmaajo wants to prove;

1. The fight over G16 seats the past 2 years was not about seats he needs to win and that he always was confident of winning without them

2. The fight over G16 was about the illegitimacy of Madoobe Kismaayo admin the last 10 years which always used "expediency" as tactic (aka just sacrifice the rights of Gedo to get the election "done")

3. Also set the precedent that NO LONGER can entities actively use "stalling" as a strategy to hold up the system like Deni/Madoobe did before being forced to sign September Agreement.

Essentially Farmaajo wants to show in a crystal clear way the fight with Madoobe was about the illegitimacy of Kismaayo "Jubbaland" and that this was always a about the rights of the people there not personal political ambition on his part.

This is why he has decided to go into Presidential elections with the hold on Gedo.

1. Neither should he get votes from Gedo to show this was not personal political calculus
2. And nor should Gedo votes be given to Madoobe to show EXPEDIENCY is no longer viable which used the symbolism of needing 100% participation to sacrifice the rights and ownership of Gedo/Jubbalanders

G16 MPs will be legitimized the moment after presidential elections pending any change in his decision to put a hold on Gedo's MPs.

But make no mistake, the new Speaker has already confirmed 100% G16 will be legitimized as the lawful representatives.

[TarTar]

ustad voltage usually solid on politcs but g16 don't need to sitout even if farmajo gonna win re-election. the rest of his analysis was sound. speaker madobe working with SS. n SS auditioning for PM under farmajo. harti abgal not gonna have candidate in final round

final round. farmajo against Roble's guy

if farmajo pick SS for PP y'all gonna need a strong deputy PM. SS is weak. this is the nigga who let CCC sell Somalia's waters to Kenya. Farmajo gonna have to keep a short leash on SS. vet every minister he nominates. double check again. SS will have no idea wut his ministers do. this is why the ex italian colony game their deputy PM seat i'm gonna have to work extra hard if SS is PM

[Northkil]

The analysis from V is sound and always appreciated

[Rebelxx222]

Came back to laugh at this thread hahaha

Ceelwaaq is now official

[sahal80]

Every thing this conspiracy theorist said never came true. From "Farmaajo not recognizing Madoobe reelection" to "election will take in Garbahaarey without Madoobe managing it" and the latest "Adan Madobe was gonna legitimaze Garbahaarey mps but Farmaajo said No "
what more has left for him? "Farmaajo winning in the first round"

like the CBB he is gonna say it has to do with the UAE's intervention after its ambassador met Madoobe

What they dont know is madoobe is not just speaker but the acting president even Rooble has disappeared since then that why beesha caalamka meets him

yesterday he warned xijaar odiwaa abd qaaroole if they take their orders from Farmaajo

i said Madoobe told farmaajo this job was done before him he cant postpone Gedo mps. Speaker' Satament literally stated what i said referring to Rooble, FEIT, and Dgabanacad.


PO niyahow walaalkaa isbitaal gee intaad la waalan laheed i saw crisis actor Sadaq joon calling for washamsi on Farmaajo

he called Saadaq Joon crisis actor. this is what happens when you watch Alex Jones!

[paperino]

I would expect Farmaajo & NN to welcome the ruling, and as usual mucaaradka & their fanboys into rushing to claims of victory before even the (s)election started. 16 is less than 6% of 275, which isn't a percentage that would determine the outcome of the (s)election. What's more, no one can be certain whom those 16 mps would eventually vote for. What this ruling means is, there would be no delays, squabbles, is-jiijiid, etc. It would also mean, should Farmaajo win, it would be fair & square, and mucaaradka & their fanboys must accept the outcome, and cannot make excuses, conspiracies, etc.

[MrSinister]

I would expect Farmaajo & NN to welcome the ruling, and as usual mucaaradka & their fanboys into rushing to claims of victory before even the (s)election started. 16 is less than 6% of 275, which isn't a percentage that would determine the outcome of the (s)election. What's more, no one can be certain whom those 16 mps would eventually vote for. What this ruling means is, there would be no delays, squabbles, is-jiijiid, etc. It would also mean, should Farmaajo win, it would be fair & square, and mucaaradka & their fanboys must accept the outcome, and cannot make excuses, conspiracies, etc.

Farmajo delayed the elections because of the Gedo seats. This is personal for him and about his legacy.

[paperino]

Farmajo delayed the elections because of the Gedo seats. This is personal for him and about his legacy.

Still, should he win, you must accept the outcome (which would be certified by gudoomiye Madoobe), no excuses, conspiracies, etc.

[MrSinister]

Farmajo delayed the elections because of the Gedo seats. This is personal for him and about his legacy.

Still, should he win, you must accept the outcome (which would be certified by gudoomiye Madoobe), no excuses, conspiracies, etc.

Whoever wins on may 15 will be the next president. Farmajo and cbb are more likely to question the legitimacy of the elections than anyone else at this point especially with Elwaq seats legitimized.

The gedo mp’s will likely vote for Deni, so this is a big win for Deni.

[paperino]

Whoever wins on may 15 will be the next president. Farmajo and cbb are more likely to question the legitimacy of the elections than anyone else at this point especially with Elwaq seats legitimized.

The gedo mp’s will likely vote for Deni, so this is a big win for Deni.

No one can be so sure of who would vote for whom. This is a short period when mps can make the most if they play right and vote for a probable winning horse. If they vote for a losing horse, they risk of making less, and possibly being replaced (indicted of corruption, taking bribery, etc) after the (s)election. Deni isn't in to win, but to be a spoiler and make sure Farmaajo doesn't come back. Recently, he had trouble inviting enough mps, and those who showed up did for qado/casho:

Deni oo niyad jab weyn kala kulmay xildhibaanada Jubaland iyo Puntland ee BF
Kulanka oo lagu casuumay 80 xildhibaan oo isugu jiro xildhibaanada laba aqal ee baarlamanka Soomaaliya ee laga soo doortay Jubbaland iyo Puntland ayaa waxaa kasooo qeyb galay kaliya 33 xildhibaan, taasoo muujineyso in sidii loo maleeyey aanu Saciid Deni taagero uga heysan xildhibaanada labadii maamul goboleed ee uu isku haleenayey.

Inkasta oo kulanka ay ka qeyb-galeen kaliya 33 xildhibaan, haddana waxaa xitaa hubneyn inay 33-kaas ay wada taageersan yihiin Deni, ayada oo qaarkood ay suurta-gal tahay inay qadada u tageen kaliya inay ku ixtiraamaan casuumadda loo fidiyey.
https://www.caasimada.net/xog-deni-oo-n ... and-ee-bf/

[SultanOrder]

From V

I once told Abkoow during the extension where I was the extreme outlier for 3 months before everything I said turned out to be true;

"never assume you know how Farmaajo is playing the game."

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=402708

I relayed here the contents of a conversation that was true as it happened with the caveat pending any change in circumstances.

Farmaajo's reelection campaign announcement and an indefensible press statement by the Speaker took place on the same day.

Having received an update this evening, I can tell you, just like the extension stunt, things are not what they seem.

That is all I will say on this issue per my silence on all Farmaajo reelection strategy and general election events.

I will add this; look to the letter released to the press itself to find in it what is designed to abrogate the contents of the letter.

I will of course explain this all when the dust settles. Thankfully, we won't have to wait as long as 3 months this time./i]

[barbarossa]

Stars appear to be perfectly aligned for incumbent farmaajo to cruise into a landslide victory and serve another four year term (maybe five, should he feel like it) as the don of villa Somalia.

[BigBreak]

Voltage is a fraud and he should shut his mouth

[sahal80]

he is in denial like this tweet says or will this be his last conspiracy theory as his cult leader will be out in this week? before that let him entertain himself that Farmaajo "is playing chess not checkers or has some sort of hidden card"

[sahal80]

Stars appear to be perfectly aligned for incumbent farmaajo to cruise into a landslide victory and serve another four year term (maybe five, should he feel like it) as the don of villa Somalia.