From Voltage; Qoorqoor-Abdikareem-AA stunt says HG are campaigning for PM; anti-HSM/anti-Deni

[SultanOrder]

From V:

This;



Says;

1. HG has given up on the Presidential contest and is building the case for PM
2. HG is fighting an intra-Hawiye competition primarily against Mudulood and the biggest target is Hassan Sheikh
3. HG is flirting with backing a Darod candidate for President who is not pro-Hassan Sheikh or affiliated with the Mudulood candidates

This is pure logic.

1. A sub-clan uniting and consolidating with such grand publicity right before a national election is not a show of force. It is a special interest negotiating tactic.Elections are about building coalitions, not doubling down on your small group. It is about expanding and growing, not limiting yourself.

Somalia is 4.5 and HG is a mere sub-clan. There is no sub-clan that has more than 3-5% of the Parliament seats. 3-5% of the vote is not anyone's foundation for winning the Parliament. NN is a foundation, Dam Jadeed is a foundation, even "isbadal" is a foundation but HG or Marehan or Abgaal or Majerten is not a foundation for a winning candidate.

As such, HG announcement is not about being a realistic foundation for a winning national candidate. It is about CONTRIBUTING TO an existing foundation. It is about providing what is needed to throw an ascendent foundation just over the edge and potentially playing swing vote.

In return, HG will cash gratefulness by soliciting their appointment of PM as their "reward" from the candidate whose coalition they took over the edge.

This is why contrary to rationality, they have publicized something we try to hide---that's because the publicity is the announcement the bidding/negotiation process has started. They aren't seeking president since no clan unilaterally "tribalizes" and limits their candidacy. They seek the winning campaign to contribute to in the name of HG and collect a reward in that name. The only main reward left outstanding would be Prime Minister.

This is why this event tells me HG have conceded the Presidency and are building case for PM.

2. If HG is then really fighting and making the case for PM, their primary competitors and concern are other Hawiye and especially the Mudulood. This is why the objective of their announcement is an intra-Hawiye political fight.

Again, Somalia is a 4.5 country. For HG to make the case for contesting the PM and be rewarded with it, the PM seat must only be available to the Hawiye clan family. This means no Darod, Dir, Digil &Mirifle, etc will be competing with HG. It would only be limited to Hawiye making the political fight within. HG would have already known during this public announcement their main political competition would be other Hawiye and especially Mudulood.

Intriguingly, I present the difference between Qoorqoor and Abdikareem. Qoorqoor has already done everything he could and was supposed to do for Farmaajo. There is really nothing else of equity left for him to do that meaningfully impacts Farmaajo. Abdikareem, however, is card carrying Dam Jadeed. He is Hassan Sh's longest business partner, ideological bedfellow, and even long time close friend. These guys started Simad University together, they jointly ran their NGO ventures together, and are the right and left side brains of Dam Jadeed.

Yet Abdikareem did not concede to Hassan Sheikh. In fact, he makes possible a "HG" clan position in the 11th hour before national elections. A "HG" clan position is opposite to an "Abgaal" clan position since this is 4.5 Somalia and in national elections, clan fights are verticle or within groups. Just based on that reality and the degree of close historical, financial, and interpersonal relationship with Hassan Sh who was snubbed for concession tells me the main political competition informed by this announcement is Hawiye in general, Mudulood in particular, and Hassan Sh's candidacy most especially.

Obviously if the setting the case for PM, Hawiye/Mudulood & Hassan Sh's candidacy would be what needs to be overcome aka helping a campaign get over the edge to overcome those entites.

3. Once again, since this is 4.5 Somalia, a Hawiye PM would have to be selected by a Darod President. This means HG's public announcement setting the case for PM can only join to throw over the edge a Darod candidacy.

Deni and Farmaajo are the two frontline Darod candidates. Deni is Dam Jadeed and his closest political partnership with any of the opposition is Hassan Sh. Hassan Sh is also the only opposition candidate to wade into the Gedo MPs controversy where he joined Deni and Madoobe. These two men have played public romance recently, more so for selfish personal ambitions, with what is assumed to be MJ-Abgaal political alliance. If Deni Darod candidacy wins, the odds favor an Abgaal PM and vice versa Hassan Sh.

This leaves the Farmaajo Darod candidacy as the only outstanding possibility. To go back to Qoorqoor, I do not believe for a second Qoorqoor would have done this without support for the enterprise from Farmaajo. Qoorqoor has stayed loyal to Farmaajo until his material role in the election ended as it did with all FMS presidents. He knows anything other than NN condemns him to Kheyre's situation---not with NN and just as hated and ostracized by those against NN.

It seems to me that HG and Qoorqoor are flirting with Farmaajo and this public stunt is a reflection of how hard they feel they have to woo Farmaajo to bolster the chance and hope of a President Farmaajo rewarding them with PM again.

Neither Qoorqoor nor HG are taking this for granted and want to be of as much publicly acknowledged support as possible to his winning candidacy to bolster their argument for being rewarded once again with PM.

For you see, even publicly making this about "HG" unity is publicly wanting it witnessed it was indeed "HG" threw Farmaajo over the edge.

Wassallam!

[SunFromNorth]

Voltage is such a sad person imagine growing up in Seattle only to spend your time analyzing somali tribal politics what a loser

[MrSinister]

Voltage is right about HG playing for PM, but it’s for Deni presidency not farmajo. AAW is the most anti farmajo candidate and has been consistently. I believe farmajo is a non factor and the opposition are confident of that. All of the top candidates will be against farmajo if he makes it to final round. However, they are all building separate alliances to win. HSM and Deni are not as politically aligned as one might assume. They both agree that farmajo must be replaced but they have different paths to get there.

Some of the anti Deni PL leaders support HSM and I believe if HSM wins, his PM will come from that camp.

[mahor]

It's clear to me HG are gunning for the presidency itself, AAW is way too anti farmaajo to campaign for his return and be in a subordinate position, especially considering he stands a chance to win the presidency himself. I also think HS represents a hiiraab ticket rather than just a abgaal one, i cant see why hg would be so opposed to his return to the degree they'd want farmaajo back.

[FarhanYare]

If farmajo comes back it will be three way alliance with abgal pm and mj will just have to surrender to mareexaan I can not imagine them in an alliance with cayr that's gonna be impossible. I don't think abgal wants pm slot which means they would rather accept an cayr presidency than pm under farmaajo. Its wishful thinking but I do not see how he will be back given all he does is talk but fails to deliver,. We've seen so many assassination under his term. I would take anyone other than these two idiot faqash Deni or farmaajo.

[FarhanYare]

Voltage is right about HG playing for PM, but it’s for Deni presidency not farmajo. AAW is the most anti farmajo candidate and has been consistently. I believe farmajo is a non factor and the opposition are confident of that. All of the top candidates will be against farmajo if he makes it to final round. However, they are all building separate alliances to win. HSM and Deni are not as politically aligned as one might assume. They both agree that farmajo must be replaced but they have different paths to get there.

Some of the anti Deni PL leaders support HSM and I believe if HSM wins, his PM will come from that camp.

Farmajo has better chance then Deni.

[Nomand]

No one is going to make HG PM. More likely HG got paid to sabotage Abgaal. If AAW can get enough votes it would mean no abgaal in the 2nd round.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

4 abgaal candidates will make it to second round, HSM,Shariif,Osoble and Addow Ali gees. Remember this.

[Nomand]

4 abgaal candidates will make it to second round, HSM,Shariif,Osoble and Addow Ali gees. Remember this.

lay off the crack. at most you will get 1 candidate in 2nd round.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

4 abgaal candidates will make it to second round, HSM,Shariif,Osoble and Addow Ali gees. Remember this.

lay off the crack. at most you will get 1 candidate in 2nd round.

Last election mudulood had 210 mps in first round.

[Murax]

4 abgaal candidates will make it to second round, HSM,Shariif,Osoble and Addow Ali gees. Remember this.

Bro macquul ahow. I think 2 max are getting past 1st round not 4.

[Nomand]

4 abgaal candidates will make it to second round, HSM,Shariif,Osoble and Addow Ali gees. Remember this.

lay off the crack. at most you will get 1 candidate in 2nd round.

Last election mudulood had 210 mps in first round.

its not last election sxb. this is 2022 election a lot has changed since 2017.

[TheOgadenAAR]

This spin merchant is still talking? when farmaajo loses, watch him spin that as a farmaajo win.
pathetic.

[sahal80]

SultanOrder where is your conspiracy theorist Farmaajo will win in the first round? ? Even Deni defeated him

[Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE]

Faramaajo and Deni have the most votes.
Sharif already dropped out .
Khayre surprised me

And Sahal’s candidate Abdinuur didn’t even get one vote lol…Sahal was swearing up and down few days ago that Deni will not even get one vote ..maskiin Sahal eat your own words .