I see 0 evidence of "offensive" against Shabab. It is Shabab showing resurgence. The question should be why?

[Gubbet]

This is how information manipulation works;



Similarly there are "movements" now in Somalia where on one side Shabaab is a factor and on the other we have disparate group of socio-politico entities (i.e. Macawiisleey, Saleebaan clan, Liyuu Police).

The movements are all at the initiation of Shabaab.

1. It is Shabab that allegedly moved in from Bakool to surrounding areas including on the Ethiopian border (Huddur).

2. It is Shabab that allegedly moved in from the Shabelle River area of Somalia to surrounding areas including on the Ethiopian border (Beled-Weyne).

3. It is Shabab that allegedly moved in from the coastal plains to surrounding areas including between Hobyo and the interior (Cadaado).

It is Shabaab that is attacking; for example, Saleebaan clan "mobilization" follows Shabaab incursion and destruction of clan property and infrastructure like water catchements applied as pressure to submit.

Like water in a glass, there are movements involving Shabaab in Somalia at this moment.

Even how people choose to interpret this observation is a target of information manipulation by "framing."


Be mindful about this form of socio-politico manipulation in which one's "reality construction" is outsourced.

There is no evidence of an "offensive against Shabaab," but all the evidence points to a moment of Shaban resurgence.

I leave it to you to ask "why?"

[mahor]

In their counter-attack/offensive they took over last stretches of land in Hiiraan, you dont see this as evidence of gains being made and alshabab losing their grip? One thing i'd like to say is that the anti-alshabab forces need to show initiative this move does look like its being done out of pressure after suffering setbacks rather than an actual attempt to end alshabab once and for all.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

This is how information manipulation works;



Similarly there are "movements" now in Somalia where on one side Shabaab is a factor and on the other we have disparate group of socio-politico entities (i.e. Macawiisleey, Saleebaan clan, Liyuu Police).

The movements are all at the initiation of Shabaab.

1. It is Shabab that allegedly moved in from Bakool to surrounding areas including on the Ethiopian border (Huddur).

2. It is Shabab that allegedly moved in from the Shabelle River area of Somalia to surrounding areas including on the Ethiopian border (Beled-Weyne).

3. It is Shabab that allegedly moved in from the coastal plains to surrounding areas including between Hobyo and the interior (Cadaado).

It is Shabaab that is attacking; for example, Saleebaan clan "mobilization" follows Shabaab incursion and destruction of clan property and infrastructure like water catchements applied as pressure to submit.

Like water in a glass, there are movements involving Shabaab in Somalia at this moment.

Even how people choose to interpret this observation is a target of information manipulation by "framing."


Be mindful about this form of socio-politico manipulation in which one's "reality construction" is outsourced.

There is no evidence of an "offensive against Shabaab," but all the evidence points to a moment of Shaban resurgence.

I leave it to you to ask "why?"

Very simple. Al Shabaab is foreign backed. Security reforms being disregarded in lieu of arming clan militias with the likelihood of arms falling into Al Shabaab’s hands etc and etc. Dependency on foreign aid and lack of self confidence speaks volumes. It isn’t rocket science

[GeoSeven]

Anaa haray looma hadlo. Voltage, unblock Sahal. I think you blocked him in a previous thread? Shame that one of you decided to finally run away from healthy discourse. Snet can be dull without Sahal replying to your outlandish writings.

[Gubbet]

Saddam,

On the question of why there is Shabab resurgence, you touched on my suspicion. Something about SECURITY REFORM handed over by President Farmaajo has faced a setback or vulnerability since the change of leadership in Villa Somalia.

It may likely be a direct and already poignant outcome of corruption, malfeasance, and administrative weakness many have already attached to the present government, but real and credible research is needed to definitively establish evidence of this as well as possible solutions.

Clearly Al Shabaab has moved quickly and broadly after months of observing the landscape since the new government came to power and the natural assumption is there is a change in advantage that accounts for their resurgence.

The whole framing manipulation reconstructing these events as "offensive movements against Shabaab" is merely public distraction in my estimation.

I cannot say who or even if there is anyone organizing this distraction, but I would not be surprised if this was intended to distract the public away from the disillusionment created by the incredible number of missteps and mistakes the government has exhibited almost in a daily pattern for some months now.

Truth and security are both showing to be potentially forming casualties of this ongoing process.

[Gubbet]

Anaa haray looma hadlo. Voltage, unblock Sahal. I think you blocked him in a previous thread? Shame that one of you decided to finally run away from healthy discourse. Snet can be dull without Sahal replying to your outlandish writings.

Geo, walaal, I am an individual who has the right and privilege to free association. I have never blocked you. I have never even thought of blocking you. I have never raised a single eyebrow at anything you have written finding it objectionable on the basis of civility. I don't know if you and I have ever even agreed on a single point. I certainly have not even considered you warm or friendly towards my person at any occasion. Yet, I have never blocked you let alone found you objectionable. I even appreciate having come across your perspective on many number of discussions.

I blocked the individual you named, because I personally find him objectionable and I have no desire or interest to extend him the privilege of my free association.

I have no interest in coming across incivility, tantrums, and/or giving any more time or attention to what I consider negativity.

That is my choice to make for myself.

[Gubbet]

In their counter-attack/offensive they took over last stretches of land in Hiiraan, you dont see this as evidence of gains being made and alshabab losing their grip? One thing i'd like to say is that the anti-alshabab forces need to show initiative this move does look like its being done out of pressure after suffering setbacks rather than an actual attempt to end alshabab once and for all.

My point is not concerned with battle outcomes. It is not even relevant to what the particular field is and which particular clash is going what way.

It is not about 1 field, 1 battle, and 1 outcome.

I am looking at the war; the totality of the landscape and and state of security as a whole.

Whether Shabaab ends up suffering a setback in one battle or one field or any other outcome in these movements; taken together, Al Shabaab is resurgent and is on the attack.

There is no "offensive against Al Shabaab" at all. None. This is what the evidence is showing.

Yet the way this reality is being manipulated and reconstructed in public discourse would have you believe otherwise.

That is simply untrue.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Voltage you cannot deny the sucesfull Anti Shabab campaign in Hiiraan and Baxdo. Even in Baxdo al shabab faced it's biggest defeat in history. With hundreds of killed shabab members.

Truth is NN didn't actively fight shabab in those 5 years it had power.

[Gubbet]

Voltage you cannot deny the sucesfull Anti Shabab campaign in Hiiraan and Baxdo. Even in Baxdo al shabab faced it's biggest defeat in history. With hundreds of killed shabab members.

Truth is NN didn't actively fight shabab in those 5 years it had power.

My good friend, ironically, I would nominate what you just said as worthy of being the subject of an academic-level teaching example on "misinformation."

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

In their counter-attack/offensive they took over last stretches of land in Hiiraan, you dont see this as evidence of gains being made and alshabab losing their grip? One thing i'd like to say is that the anti-alshabab forces need to show initiative this move does look like its being done out of pressure after suffering setbacks rather than an actual attempt to end alshabab once and for all.

My point is not concerned with battle outcomes. It is not even relevant to what the particular field is and which particular clash is going what way.

It is not about 1 field, 1 battle, and 1 outcome.

I am looking at the war; the totality of the landscape and and state of security as a whole.

Whether Shabaab ends up suffering a setback in one battle or one field or any other outcome in these movements; taken together, Al Shabaab is resurgent and is on the attack.

There is no "offensive against Al Shabaab" at all. None. This is what the evidence is showing.

Yet the way this reality is being manipulated and reconstructed in public discourse would have you believe otherwise.

That is simply untrue.

You should read Vom Kriege by Von Clauswitz. My fellow Prussian (Jubbalander). You know the art of war. Cheers mate

[Gubbet]

You should read Vom Kriege by Von Clauswitz. My fellow Prussian (Jubbalander). You know the art of war. Cheers mate

I have not read that book and Saddam, I am actually going to take you up on that recommendation. Thank you.

[TheOgadenAAR]

HSM already took more towns from shabab than your failure adeer did in 5 years. You can deny that all you want but it will not stop being the truth.

[original dervish]

It seems we actually have folk here rooting for AS.

And to think they were waving the blue flag just a few short months ago.

Hsm may yet redeem himself if his government is able to weaken and contain AS.

[Gubbet]

September 10, 2022, 1 hour discussion on Nigeria's News Central titled "The Resurgence Of Al-Shabaab In Somalia"



September 02, 2022, Reason Magazine analysis of US military engagement in Somalia, identifies what it calls a "resurgence" by Shabaab.

It is interesting that they attribute the resurgence to "Ethiopia's civil war" almost as an afterthought or a filler when that war has been going on for two years.

al-Shabab, a terrorist group affiliated with Al Qaeda, has resurged in strength...

The resurgence of al-Shabab in recent months can be attributed to instability in the region caused by neighboring Ethiopia's ongoing civil war. Last month, al-Shabab invaded Ethiopia's northern provinces, inflicting heavy damage on Ethiopian forces. On August 22, al-Shabab fighters also laid siege to a hotel in the heart of Mogadishu, killing more than 20 people and injuring over a hundred.

https://reason.com/2022/09/02/the-war-o ... in-africa/

Etc etc etc.

So the information is not unavailable; it is rather the will and/or desire, perhaps even the ability, to authentically interact with evidence and fact that seem to be another casualty of these events.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Nn turned into Shabab.

https://fb.watch/fxFKqE1Yn0/