Look @ Beledweyne|Mogadishu. 1991-2006|No tribe could form city admin. Look@Kismayo. Somalia'22 is Afghanistan II. Farce

[Gubbet]

I like patterns. Patterns are very important. Patterns reflect the reality around us.

Everything you see in Somalia's "state building" right now is superficial. It is a mirage. A placeholder. A pointless, irrelevant farce.

It is what Afghanistan was under until that moment American troops were removed by Biden.

And the AMISOM and foreign troops in Somalia will leave. It only takes one single unforseen momentary downturn in the Global stock market before Somalia can be "left to the wolves." And the African troops will leave all of them.

Now why do I say this is Afghanistan II?

Last night, I had Abkoow express such profound confusion about the reality, I realized the reason we will become Afghanistan II OR really I should say---go back to post UNOSOM Somalia the moment the American Rangers were withdrawn is because---the "statebuilding" is unnatural. It does not reflect the reality. It is superficial.

1. From 1991 to the TPLF invasion; no single tribe or clan could build an administration for Mogadishu or "Gobolka Benadir". Not for a single 24 HOUR PERIOD---did Mogadishu have a single city admin. Yet, one single subclan has been bestowed with "Mayor of Mogadishu and Governor of Benadir" like an heirloom. If this was merited, it would have naturally come to fruition controlling for all other unnatural factors like AMISOM. I have expressed no enmity to this sub-clan especially as you recognize that I have no political equity in Mogadishu so there is nothing personal. 1991-2006, evem Dayniile was an autonomous clan fiefdom. When this unnatural moment is no longer physically kept afloat---there will be no single sub-clan heirloom for Mayor of Mogadishu/Governor of Benadir. Mogadishu will revert to the same city it was in the 90's or be taken by Al Shabaab quicker than Afghanistan fell to Taliban.

2. I am not going to spend much time on Beled-Weyne, other than to say it was possibly the only city or settlement in Somalia probably more divided and less capable of forming a single administration than Mogadishu. Mogadishu had divided districts. Beled-weyne had divided blocks. There are at least 40 case studies on Beled-weyne that will show you the extent of "no man's land" the town was. If you do not get an appreciation for the role of justice and social confidence in any attempted settlement to Somalia's quagmire, read-every-single-case-study-or-report-or-description-or-analysis-or-explanation-concerning-Beled-Weyne-from-1991-2006. That town is the settlement in Somalia, probably the only one more than Mogadishu, less capable of producing a single even relatively, even moderately dominant group capable of even leading let alone disproportionately impacting the production of a city-wide administration.

Then look at Kismaayo.

This whole show is something from the twilight zone.

Theree is no "state building" underway in Somalia. The whole nothingness is like a "filler" just to occupy time that has to be occupied.


Every single one of you who reads this can already foresee exactly what I foresee.

When it happens, and some feign surprise---I will simply say "I am not interested in fake today. Fake got us to this point."

[gobdoon]

Can you please turn a fresh page Farmajo and his administration are gone so live in the present
I wish people stop support for Shaqsi, Xata hadad wax tirsanayso adiga iyo Qabiil kaga qof iyo shaqsiyad ha ku xiran ee reerku mar walba mawqif ha ku tagnaado ka weyn shaqsi iyo koox

[MrSinister]

Can you please turn a fresh page Farmajo and his administration are gone so live in the present
I wish people stop support for Shaqsi, Xata hadad wax tirsanayso adiga iyo Qabiil kaga qof iyo shaqsiyad ha ku xiran ee reerku mar walba mawqif ha ku tagnaado ka weyn shaqsi iyo koox

He’s not really talking about any particular administration. He actually makes astute observation about Mogadishu and Kismayo. Beledweyne I’m not familiar with, but both kismayo and mogadisho have never had a naturally forming government since the civil war. Kismayo has gone back and forth several times between one faction or another. If one group dominates those two citites, then why were there no governments before African Union troops. Even galkacyo that was previously contested is now mostly peaceful, and the city is controlled by PL, with hg control of baraxley. It is an indication that those two cities are a lot more diverse than some claim here, and no one clan can exert their will on another without foreign intervention.

[Gubbet]

Can you please turn a fresh page Farmajo and his administration are gone so live in the present
I wish people stop support for Shaqsi, Xata hadad wax tirsanayso adiga iyo Qabiil kaga qof iyo shaqsiyad ha ku xiran ee reerku mar walba mawqif ha ku tagnaado ka weyn shaqsi iyo koox

He’s not really talking about any particular administration. He actually makes astute observation about Mogadishu and Kismayo. Beledweyne I’m not familiar with, but both kismayo and mogadisho have never had a naturally forming government since the civil war. Kismayo has gone back and forth several times between one faction or another. If one group dominates those two citites, then why were there no governments before African Union troops. Even galkacyo that was previously contested is now mostly peaceful, and the city is controlled by PL, with hg control of baraxley. It is an indication that those two cities are a lot more diverse than some claim here, and no one clan can exert their will on another without foreign intervention.

Waa yaab wallahi, how one can write one thing and someone can read their words and perfectly explain even the purpose and intent just from not only understanding completely what one wrote but also contextualizing it from a position of clarity....and how someone else will asign to one ownership of something they created for a show.

Ironic, the purpose of the topic is "superficiality."

Bravo btw Bravo,

[Gubbet]

Btw I actually find Gaalkacyo different to any of these places and oddly "stabilizing" for a slightly different reason.

It is not so much an importance in diversity, but authentic solutions over superficial fillers/placeholding/unnatural bandaging.

Gaalkacyo is like BeledHawa, Somalia and Mandera, Kenya....Dolow, Somalia and Dolow, Kenya... Wajaale, Ethiopia and Wajaale, Somaliland.

Area wise places that can be considered a single entity, but completely understood, accepted, and affirmed they are two wholes in proximity not two halves of a whole.

Gaalkacyo, Puntland and South Gaalkacyo are India and Pakistan. A mutually asserted divorce with irreconcilable differences. Good bye, I don't want you, sincerely. Even to the point where it casually exists that one language, mutually intelligible gets called Hindustani in India and Urdu in Pakistan.

That is an authentic settlement. It reflects the natural outcome for the involved parties.

So Gaalkacyo area has been extremely stable city and all throughout the civil war, the single dominant power in each "whole" effected the power and dominance to provide the only authority of their "town".

Mogadishu and Beled-Weyne not only is it not different wholes, but the internal issues aren't even about "halves." There is no divorce, no separation even, but a violent, loveless, psycho-emotionally damaging, vicious abuse and disregard for each other in a battered, tattered aingle mattress without even a clear line concerning which side of bed belongs to whom. The jagged, disconcerting, discombobulating zigzag goes everywhere and no where and with no reprieve from trauma. As soon as one closes their eyes because of tiredness, the vicious enemy sharing your bed will immediately take the opportunity to "fix" the zigzag to implicate your finger or toe randomly being considered by them to have trespassed on their corner..and just that moment where you dare to enter REM sleep, pull an elbow back with all force possible to have their flying fist connect with your eye socket.

This entire shit they are calling Somalia state building is fake. I don't even want to use a nice and professional word like "superficial." It's fake.

It is devoid of the one thing that could salvage it; authenticity.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Gubbet i am gonna be completely honest bro. JAREERWEYNE and Raxanweyn deserve representation in Banadir not darod. You guys are irrelevant in Banadir. It's despicable giving DC to a darod when RX and Jarerweyne don't have 1. Raxanweyne and jareer own more assets and have the numbers compared to Darod. Facts.

[Gubbet]

Gubbet i am gonna be completely honest bro. JAREERWEYNE and Raxanweyn deserve representation in Banadir not darod. You guys are irrelevant in Banadir. It's despicable giving DC to a darod when RX and Jarerweyne don't have 1. Raxanweyne and jareer own more assets and have the numbers compared to Darod. Facts.

You have created what you are choosing to respond to "and" your reaponse.

However, since, you referenced me, would you please address the topic even indict my argument

Like, I don't know , how to make you understand 1.) this is not about me or you sxb and 2.) i don't think you understand or appreciate at all yet you are trying to play inside the "game" and I have identified a "game" is what is being played, momentarily and absent-mindedly, a distraction now and vanished irrelevance later.

Abkoow, ninaa aad u qadariya tahay sxb, because of your personal dhaqan so no personal shit meant...lakin sxb you need to put down the kool aid bro. At the least read how Sinister explained what I wrote.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Can you please turn a fresh page Farmajo and his administration are gone so live in the present
I wish people stop support for Shaqsi, Xata hadad wax tirsanayso adiga iyo Qabiil kaga qof iyo shaqsiyad ha ku xiran ee reerku mar walba mawqif ha ku tagnaado ka weyn shaqsi iyo koox

He’s not really talking about any particular administration. He actually makes astute observation about Mogadishu and Kismayo. Beledweyne I’m not familiar with, but both kismayo and mogadisho have never had a naturally forming government since the civil war. Kismayo has gone back and forth several times between one faction or another. If one group dominates those two citites, then why were there no governments before African Union troops. Even galkacyo that was previously contested is now mostly peaceful, and the city is controlled by PL, with hg control of baraxley. It is an indication that those two cities are a lot more diverse than some claim here, and no one clan can exert their will on another without foreign intervention.

[Isseayaanle]

I like patterns. Patterns are very important. Patterns reflect the reality around us.

Everything you see in Somalia's "state building" right now is superficial. It is a mirage. A placeholder. A pointless, irrelevant farce.

It is what Afghanistan was under until that moment American troops were removed by Biden.

And the AMISOM and foreign troops in Somalia will leave. It only takes one single unforseen momentary downturn in the Global stock market before Somalia can be "left to the wolves." And the African troops will leave all of them.

Now why do I say this is Afghanistan II?

Last night, I had Abkoow express such profound confusion about the reality, I realized the reason we will become Afghanistan II OR really I should say---go back to post UNOSOM Somalia the moment the American Rangers were withdrawn is because---the "statebuilding" is unnatural. It does not reflect the reality. It is superficial.

1. From 1991 to the TPLF invasion; no single tribe or clan could build an administration for Mogadishu or "Gobolka Benadir". Not for a single 24 HOUR PERIOD---did Mogadishu have a single city admin. Yet, one single subclan has been bestowed with "Mayor of Mogadishu and Governor of Benadir" like an heirloom. If this was merited, it would have naturally come to fruition controlling for all other unnatural factors like AMISOM. I have expressed no enmity to this sub-clan especially as you recognize that I have no political equity in Mogadishu so there is nothing personal. 1991-2006, evem Dayniile was an autonomous clan fiefdom. When this unnatural moment is no longer physically kept afloat---there will be no single sub-clan heirloom for Mayor of Mogadishu/Governor of Benadir. Mogadishu will revert to the same city it was in the 90's or be taken by Al Shabaab quicker than Afghanistan fell to Taliban.

2. I am not going to spend much time on Beled-Weyne, other than to say it was possibly the only city or settlement in Somalia probably more divided and less capable of forming a single administration than Mogadishu. Mogadishu had divided districts. Beled-weyne had divided blocks. There are at least 40 case studies on Beled-weyne that will show you the extent of "no man's land" the town was. If you do not get an appreciation for the role of justice and social confidence in any attempted settlement to Somalia's quagmire, read-every-single-case-study-or-report-or-description-or-analysis-or-explanation-concerning-Beled-Weyne-from-1991-2006. That town is the settlement in Somalia, probably the only one more than Mogadishu, less capable of producing a single even relatively, even moderately dominant group capable of even leading let alone disproportionately impacting the production of a city-wide administration.

Then look at Kismaayo.

This whole show is something from the twilight zone.

Theree is no "state building" underway in Somalia. The whole nothingness is like a "filler" just to occupy time that has to be occupied.


Every single one of you who reads this can already foresee exactly what I foresee.

When it happens, and some feign surprise---I will simply say "I am not interested in fake today. Fake got us to this point."

I want to make two points regarding this.
First: Amisom will never leave and if they do it will be when The west install is a powerful puppet government that controls the whole of Somalia.

Two: If Amisom leaves, putland and Somaliland will survive because they both have deep state that keeps the peace, stability, etc if the collapse so will the revenue for the deep state.

[Gubbet]

AMISOM will leave. They have been here before and they left.

Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan said something along the lines of (and I am paraphrasing) "this land is dry. The stones are too hot to touch. The wind brings more heat than comfort. You will leave Frenji. I may even die this moment. But you will leave."

They left. They will always leave---those who weren't bred in this land.

And the leaving is always anti-climatic, meaning discussion about the eventuality is more animating.

The British left. Their Ugandan and Nyasi/Malawin and Sikh and Commonwealth Kings African Rifles left. The Italians left. Their bandas and Dubats and coloniale militare left. The Ethiopians came and left after 4major invasions of Somalia or occupations. The Americam Rangers left. So did the UN blue helmets and and 60 country strong UNISOM AND UNISOM II. The Kenyans have already left parts of Somalia for good like Ceel Cadde and Beled-Xaawo.district.

AMISOM WILL LEAVE.

I belief amd the evidence supports they will disband the quickest once thaylt decision is achieved.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

AMISOM will leave. They have been here before and they left.

Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan said something along the lines of (and I am paraphrasing) "this land is dry. The stones are too hot to touch. The wind brings more heat than comfort. You will leave Frenji. I may even die this moment. But you will leave."

They left. They will always leave---those who weren't bred in this land.

And the leaving is always anti-climatic, meaning discussion about the eventuality is more animating.

The British left. Their Ugandan and Nyasi/Malawin and Sikh and Commonwealth Kings African Rifles left. The Italians left. Their bandas and Dubats and coloniale militare left. The Ethiopians came and left after 4major invasions of Somalia or occupations. The Americam Rangers left. So did the UN blue helmets and and 60 country strong UNISOM AND UNISOM II. The Kenyans have already left parts of Somalia for good like Ceel Cadde and Beled-Xaawo.district.

AMISOM WILL LEAVE.

I belief amd the evidence supports they will disband the quickest once thaylt decision is achieved.

[noer]

sad. but true. this is trajectory. kabul

still. gurgurte has a chance. change course. establish justice. strong sna. strong presidency.

no corruption or incompetence. that's gonna beget weak government. the ex italian colony becoming like afhanistan.actually worse

[Gubbet]

Bump

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Trickle down trick economics. This time I’m paying the mafida and the CID…. Cough cough, wink wink… Chappaquiddick

[Faisalali]

Bump

Gubbet, Care to explain somalia being next Afghanistan? Is it due to Mahad alsheydan? Roobow? Villa somalia Chief of staff? Axmed madobe?

"It is what Afghanistan was under until that moment American troops were removed by Biden.

And the AMISOM and foreign troops in Somalia will leave. It only takes one single unforseen momentary downturn in the Global stock market before Somalia can be "left to the wolves." And the African troops will leave all of them."

I completely disagree: Comparing Afghanistan to somalia isn't fair. Somalia is waaaay more important to the xalane mafia than Afghanistan. It was strategic location, untouched resources, small population. Also regarding amisom leaving, Kenya just this week got 60 million dollars for amisom remembered.


Finally gubbet you said "the "statebuilding" is unnatural. It does not reflect the reality. It is superficial".
This is truly the most brutality honest thing you said. I wish I could like this quote a million times!