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Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:07 am
by Gubbet
I see a trajectory suspended in animation;



  1. Non-changing positions
    1. HSM and his HAGist group (primarily Abgal & Sacad)
    2. Madoobe and his loyalists
    3. Southwest State after Laftagaren victory
    4. Marehan nationally represented by "Gedo Reg"
  2. Unmoored as in not settled on destination yet
    1. Non-Sacad HG. Regarding Cayr.; Mahad Salad is unrepresentative; in fact the Cayr situation is unique & longer cycle. Cayr that orbited to Marehan in mid-90's is exactly the Cayr of today; Abgaal/Mudulood is really alien and HG both Sacad/Saleban are political rivals who both ferociously resent ascendent Cayr. The ICU is dead, Ahlu Sunnah is dead, the bitter land clashes with Marehan no longer animate since main issue (Balanbale) has become a settled political conclusion. Abdirahman Abdishakur is quiet, the Cayr leaders r demonstratively considerate and solicitous of Marehan regional leaders, and even the traditional and administrative authorities of Guriceel & Dhusamareb are expressing complimentation. Cayr will come back to Marehan orbit---I say the Marehan orbit because Cayr has been politically unmoored. They will land at the position of MX (against HSM). Cayr is similar to Saleban but different in couple things. While Saleban, not the Cayr, have a peace treaty with Marehan the Saleban do not have the historical close relationship Cayr has had with Marehan nor have they shown the ability to share the same objectives as Cayr has shown.
    2. Regarding Saleebaan; Saleebaan have no reason to necessarily be against HSM, but their leader has been Qoorqooo who was implicated in Farmajo government. At that time and especially since Rooble, the Sacad have established themselves as the main HG "clan" representative once again in HAG. While both Sacad and Saleebaan resent the threat of Cayr ascendency in HG and while both Cayr and Saleebaan resent Sacad historical political domination, Saleebaan by far and more personally detest a political disposition that already implicates Sacad political support as the "HG." This is why HSM has been heavily, tirelessly, unceasingly courting Saleebaan while having already written off Cayr as inevitable break. HSM and HAG cannot lose Saleebaan. But Saleebaan have Qoorqoor as cherished leader, they have even signed a historical treaty with Marehan---and the little interesting issues of Hobyo council seats and now Harardhere political cannibalism within HG show why if I was a betting man, I would between on Saleebaan getting off the HSM/HAG train ride because of Sacad.
  3. Evolving, but settled groups
    1. The NE is a wildcard particularly because of 3 chief reasons name Garowe has been pro-Madobe/anti-Gedo in Jubbaland as a factual statement. While with that position, she had then beek backstabbed and fundamentally disrespected by the HSM/Madooben implication in HAG authority. Even more in that dilemma, the issue of Las Canood has like a lightening bolt to develop uncertainty about even reflection or scale/weight of influence. Garowr will most certainly be as opposed to HAG as Marehan-orbit and Southwest but the question is still out as to how this will express itself and be brought to bear.
    2. Hawadle +Shabelle linked non-Darod/non-Hirab groups who are not satisfied with having declared for HSM/HAG at first given how they have been rewarded/treated or lack of since. I see see this cleavage widening. Think "Guudlaawe" type will become more HSM/HAG & "Xuud" type will become more against HSM/HAG. Similarly to Garowe, given their historical political disposition vs the alienation/grievance that will only get stronger against HSM/HAG, one sees they will not become hostages to HSMHAG but how their revolt will be expressed will have to be witnessed as it happens.
I think there is a very clear "clash" of equities which have been slowly headed for eventual conflict that now has the right triggers.

This clash of equities is between;

NATURAL LEGITIMACY WITH BROAD SPHERES OF INFLUENCE BASED IN THE INTERIOR

vs.

NARROW PROJECTION OF INFLUENCE REFLECTED FOR DEPENDENTS BASED IN COASTAL ZONES

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:22 pm
by Kees70
kkkkk just when farmaajo was expelled from Somalia, our marexan brothers like Voltage and barre hiraale are back to begging HGs for alliances :lol:

Walee sxb voltage miskiin baa tahay oo isku yacdey if you honestly believe that HGs will ally with Mx, of all the Hawiye clans none is as racist and aggressive towards daroods than HGs, its in HGs nature to fight daroods no matter where they are.

Today we HGs sit at the the highest peak of the mountain in terms of gaining our interests, we HG have successfully secured our interests in s/hoose, banaadir, mudug, galgaduud, hiiraan, and in DDSI secured, so please tell us what can we HGs gain in allying with you Mx?

What can Mx possibly offer us HGs?



p,s kulaha our delusional friend Gubbet that the beggar rahanweyne laftagreen won against HAG kkkk khiyaali kunool :lol:

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:26 pm
by Kees70
These HG army stationed in S/hoose will not rescue Mx in Jubaland from the Kablalaxs unless you have something very good to offer us HGs :lol:






Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:36 pm
by Murax
Kees70 waa ku salaamay welcome back

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:38 pm
by Kees70
Murax wrote: Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:36 pm Kees70 waa ku salaamay welcome back
Shukran Akhie, how are you Murax and your family, insha'allahi kheire i pray.

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:49 pm
by Gubbet
Kees-

Go somewhere else and flick your buggers (or whatever other obnoxious choice of fun implicates how youngish you come across to me) at some other folks of your gild or peers or whatever because I cannot be bothered with even mild peaked interest at what you have to say.

Generally, I didn't write this for you. I don't care about your "feels." Yesterday I solicited feed back regarding Ayanle/Muse/Jalaf question if you recall. Your response did not square with relevance. I moved on as I realized we have different motivations, intention,, and even interest for partaking in discussion. Go away from my topics sxb. I am not here to babysit fragilities affecting Somali tribal ego.

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:31 pm
by grandpakhalif
No thank you, last time we allied with Ayr they stabbed us in the back and joined Islamists against barre hiiraale. Goobaale , Indhocadde all joined forces with pro OG Hizbul Islam and ICU. They can continue to bicker with their fellow habroa but it is none of our concern.Also reer ayanle claim Balanbal which is unforgivable.

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:55 pm
by Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE
I wonder who are the intended audience..it’s certainly not the diaspora…days of reer welfare being foot soldiers are over.

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:29 am
by eliteSomali
:lol:

It sounds like you're trying to convince yourself more than anything else.

Re: Read: Cayr exhausting post-JVA run, "will" orbit bck 2 MX; SWest/MX/Ayr/(NE?) brng dwn HSM/Madobe/HAGist AMSM-dpndts

Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:02 am
by Gubbet
eliteSomali wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:29 am :lol:

It sounds like you're trying to convince yourself more than anything else.
Is that what you convinced yourself?