My take on SL and Laascaanod

[sahal80]

Since i was away im trying to update you what is going on so i made three threads but no more



SL has reached "ma hishiin kartaan gudihiina" a stage where the only solution is external intervention. The Daarood communities in London and brussless pressured these governments to cut off funding from the Somaliland security forces and sent a lot of money to the Garaads so the Westerners told SL that they cannot fire a single bullet and used Ethiopia to settle the matter them and Ethiopia fear the arrival of the terrorists in Sanaag and bari mountains to this region that borders Ethiopia. So what will happen? I think they will negotiate on SL withdrawing its army from Sool and granting them autonomy without beesha dhexe in their security and adminstration but this does not guarantee that they will be part of Somaliland. They will have their own army and their own police under the federal government. They will not be New FMS this govt will not allow this but will adopt their security in blue.

[original dervish]

I agree with most of your analysis.
SSC will not become a fms overnight.
However, we will build a de facto fms....with police , army, judiciary and parliament, all under the blue flag.
This is in effect a road map to fms status.

[sahal80]

I agree with most of your analysis.
SSC will not become a fms overnight.
However, we will build a de facto fms....with police , army, judiciary and parliament, all under the blue flag.
This is in effect a road map to fms status.

Exactly. On paper SL will use the Heshiis for the IC some of them say they will fight again and we will come back let us leave them.

[theyuusuf143]

First and foremost somaliland military don't receive any financial assistance from any government in the world. They are 100% funded and armed by the peaple of somaliland. And they only answer to the president of JSL. If any one in this forum can prove otherwise they can post here.

Secondly even though the government sees dhulbahante as citizens of somaliland. Most isaaqs specifically my habarjeclo clan have decided to treat them as an eternal enemies. So we agree their exit without their terms. In other words it's open for all isaaqs to scramble for dhulbahante land and properties, and we expect no treaty between us in the short term .

We are simply taking advantage of muse biixi arrogance. During his term we gonna cutoff any relationship between us and dhulmahante . We know we have no More future in eastern sool or Somalia. Our biggest enemies are their civilian horgals. Those must be removed from hargeisa government institutions. Military horgals are Oki because They are seeking power over the their land.

Any Somali who thought this is going to be very simple transition is stupid. Yes we could solve this very peacefully but dhulmahante choose the hardway because of isaaq nacayb. And we accepted their challenge . Any Somali who expects isaaq will join somalia is also wrong. We will rather be vassal state of Ethiopia , if we run out of options.

[theyuusuf143]

Once we take independence from dhulmahante we gonna actively participate all conflicts in the Horn of Africa. Most dhuloos think they were occupied by somaliland , but we were under their authority . No more.

[MandalorianDuulaya]

Sahal I agree with most of the things you said but them existing Sool won't happen.

My impression from the get go was that SL was forced to voluntarily exit LA due to International pressure including from DC and brussels including the International community but after meeting the US amb and the Ethiopian negotiation them. They were told to just exit the city to make room for dialogue and stop the destruction of the city which they accepted due to the mounting pressure But as for them exiting Sool it is pretty much a non-starter really and the international community knows this hence that is off-table.

They are in goojacade and all the surrounding areas and they will stay there. . If Sool goes they will live in a triagle besides there is some form of petrol somewhere along Sool and Sanaag which is also one of the reasons why the Garaads were pressured but that Sool part is not factual

[gobdoon]

You guys reckon things would just drag on but I do disagree and believe this conflict is coming to swift conclusion
So called SL is crumbling and it's days are numbered you talk about that but I doubt there would even be a united Isaq and even Isaqland mamulka is in doubt
Gudabursi in Borame are slowly but surely disassociate them selves with SL

[TheGrumpyGeeljire]

Since i was away im trying to update you what is going on so i made three threads but no more



SL has reached "ma hishiin kartaan gudihiina" a stage where the only solution is external intervention. The Daarood communities in London and brussless pressured these governments to cut off funding from the Somaliland security forces and sent a lot of money to the Garaads so the Westerners told SL that they cannot fire a single bullet and used Ethiopia to settle the matter them and Ethiopia fear the arrival of the terrorists in Sanaag and bari mountains to this region that borders Ethiopia. So what will happen? I think they will negotiate on SL withdrawing its army from Sool and granting them autonomy without beesha dhexe in their security and adminstration but this does not guarantee that they will be part of Somaliland. They will have their own army and their own police under the federal government. They will not be New FMS this govt will not allow this but will adopt their security in blue.

If the Ethiopian mediations fail, expect more fighting.

SL will not withdraw from Sool. That is a red line for us.

[original dervish]

Sl declared war on peaceful Dhulbahante civilians when they massacred over twenty youth peacefully protesting.

[theyuusuf143]

Sl declared war on peaceful Dhulbahante civilians when they massacred over twenty youth peacefully protesting.

Would you cccept to fight Skywalker , lets make the war personal. If you are ready to take challenge , let's set a day. Here is the rules

No basbaas , no knife , and no stick. Just hand by hand. I know you have calool but If I give you the description of general duufle , you can gues by his nickname . The guy smokes weed, he is stoo slow to draw speedy punches. Allow me to film you while you are fighting, we can make some money on YouTube.

[Ghiklo]

The likelihood of this type of solution being implemented is extremely low. Never forget the fact that you are dealing with a sickeningly fanatic group, who have been longing for a return to their pre-union independence status for decades. Case in point: The 1961 revolt in the history of the Somali republic.

Even when their military presence in the region begins to financially and geopolitically hurt them, they will never leave for the aforementioned reasons.

[sahal80]

If SL will never Govern Laascaanood again it means back to Caynaba Borders the Dhubahante will not stop there and will not accept ceasefire until their last village so that why the scenario i mentioned is the only solution wich is to try with to give them autonomy within SL(Possible agreement) Militarly it wont work for SL its Army failed to recapture Laascaanood 4 times. You cant defeat a united qabiil with Daarood support. Some non dhulbahate daarood guys in Diaspora send to the Garaads a big portion of their wages besides these fighters who are arriving in Laascaanood.


. "There are towns and cities throughout these regions where the local population is overwhelmingly pro-Somaliland, e.g., Ceerigaabo, Gar-adag, Caynaba. Consequently, setting up an independent state with Laascaanood as the capital is indeed a political project doomed to fail. With this in mind, Somaliland should pull the national army 30–40 kilometres out of Laascaanood to allow for a viable ceasefire. It is almost certain that Somaliland will not, in the foreseeable future, be able to govern Laascaanood, and any attempt to subdue it, through sheer force, is political suicide. The more people that die in this conflict, the more difficult it will be for Somaliland to reinstate its legitimacy."




https://africanarguments.org/2023/03/th ... omaliland/

[theyuusuf143]

The conflict will continue until Somalia and the world accepts referendum , any one who is supporting dhulmahante self determination should also accept the self determination of the rest of somaliland. There is only one solution and that's Referendum.

Before that somaliland forces will stay there and uruuris dooross can't push somaliland forces , we know puntland is funding them and the dhabayacos can't beat us in terms of spending. Yes somaliland won't govern lascaanod , so do kastuumo. We won't let any one else to be able to comfortably rule lascaanod. We will make sure to keep it disputed .

If the dooros attack gooja cade we gonna bomb laascaanood. If they relax we relax too. What's the big deal . We are simply two clans in the same city , there is more pressure on the puntland militias because they are the ones hiding in the city with the terrorists. They must go out of the city.

[theyuusuf143]

No government in IGAD including Somalia wants weak ass clans like qurjiile and dhuxulaysato to be responsible of the security of this volatile region. The IC won't trust dhulbahante , because they already broke two treaties with somaliland and puntland. The qurjiiles hate both puntland and somaliland , yet we feed them and pay all their public services. These uncivilised creatures don't have the capacity to run a stable administration. They gonna ruin the whole region which can turn to a major alshabaab base . We can't talk to them because they don't have leadership. Culusaw should talk to our president muuse biixi. I am sure the qurjiiles don't even trust culusaw . Dadkan Cid Ka masuuli ma jirto waa Cali baysteen iska yaacaya .

[MandalorianDuulaya]

If SL will never Govern Laascaanood again it means back to Caynaba Borders the Dhubahante will not stop there and will not accept ceasefire until their last village so that why the scenario i mentioned is the only solution wich is to try with to give them autonomy within SL(Possible agreement) Militarly it wont work for SL its Army failed to recapture Laascaanood 4 times. You cant defeat a united qabiil with Daarood support. Some non dhulbahate daarood guys in Diaspora send to the Garaads a big portion of their wages besides these fighters who are arriving in Laascaanood.


. "There are towns and cities throughout these regions where the local population is overwhelmingly pro-Somaliland, e.g., Ceerigaabo, Gar-adag, Caynaba. Consequently, setting up an independent state with Laascaanood as the capital is indeed a political project doomed to fail. With this in mind, Somaliland should pull the national army 30–40 kilometres out of Laascaanood to allow for a viable ceasefire. It is almost certain that Somaliland will not, in the foreseeable future, be able to govern Laascaanood, and any attempt to subdue it, through sheer force, is political suicide. The more people that die in this conflict, the more difficult it will be for Somaliland to reinstate its legitimacy."




https://africanarguments.org/2023/03/th ... omaliland/

I thought you had understanding for this kind of thing.. Who do you take them for? US or NATO. They can't militarily pursue SL in their own heartlands including they could risk losing Garowe and Bossaso as result which is why they have accepted US-Ethiopian mediated ceasefire. The Idoors outnumber them in that corner of Somali even if they gather alot of forces they will be beaten back. They have tried this many times and failed helping Puntland besides they are lightly armed and daroods are unmotivated fighters and not good fighters regularly they aren't dhiigyaacab like Hawiye or spectacular fighters who are currently equipped enough to take over the entirety of SL. Marehan is the only real warriors but they are to far away from the conflict and are occupied with AS they can't be everywhere but as for the Kabbalax or Harti they can't mount much chellenge here.

They aren't in position to defeat Isaaqs today with all of them this is basic military reality. Mostly know this is futile. They don't have the gear and PL is unmotivated to enter and they dislike wars and always have the MJ's like the talking part not the dying part this is just their nature and who they are. I could see the Idoors running over the Dooros and take Garowe and Bossaso rather then the other way around because PL defense is very thin. Their main defense wall against SL is the central gov't of Somalia. If the Gov't was not standing behind PL then SL would have overrun the entirety of Bari long time ago.

Hence you will keep hearing noises and in few months everyone will forget this even happened and mind there own bussiness