Correction on the 3 dozen trucks which Madobe is replacing: it's replacement for what they lost in Janay Abdalla

[Gubbet]

Waxaan maqli jiray nin daad qaaday xumbo cuskay, He lost 3 dozen similar trucks recently when Shabaab burned and took some in the course of the massacre @ Janay Cabdille.

In particular, recall they denied the extent of that massacre or even destruction reaped on Madoobe until Shabaab video evidence surfaced.

In that attack, an incredible or disproportionate amount of his capability strictly as "Ras Kamboni" was neutralized. He lost over 2 1/2- 3 dozen trucks and even more importantly he lost a substantial amount of the fully automatic machine guns and anti-cannon big caliber guns that were on top of them. What Somalis call "dhashiilke, Zuug, etc."

That's why he immediately ran to UAE to beg.

The UAE learned from their mistake in the past which saw them with the extent of hostility and coldness they received during Farmaajo and they know Somali clan politics is ever shifting and is just as capable of bringing back to power Farmajo and or someone just like him.

They are taking a Turkish style position of "non-interference" going forward in Somali clan issues.

Their reimbursement or covering the replacement of the loss to Shabaab is one which was made aware to and input solicited from all major stakeholders in Jubbaland.

Both Ethiopia and Baardheere group said they do not have a problem with it.

Remember, the people in Kismaayo are not the "enemy" and fighting Shabaab is in the interest of everybody.

Especially, a weakened Kismaayo side makes Shabaab bring all of its power to the Baardheere side so this is a seesaw being juggled.

Fartaag, Janan and these guys were part of the KDF "Jubbaland" administration almost 95% of its existence.

The point isn't to "destroy" Jubbaland. The point is to see a change in Jubbaland.

When change takes place, those trucks and whatever else is part of the administration then represents rhe new administration.

Ahmed Madoobe knows time is up and so this is what someone facing "light's out" does; make a mountain out of few donated trucks to replace the dozens that he spectacularly lost in such a negligent and really "weak" manner just last week in which the entire world confirmed through Shabaab's video evidence!

And those replacement trucks donated in the war against "terror" with no objection by anyone.

Trucks by the way which are only useful for "hoisting" the fully automatic machine guns and autocannons he did not get replaced which even if done would have been in controvention of the armed embargo.

Nin daad qaaday xumbo cuskey!

[BestP]

Gubbet

I have two questions for you.

What type of Jubaland would you envision in post Madoobe era?

Both Sade and Absame have their own clan grievances against one another, so do you believe a bloodless territorial and political settlement is possible between aforementioned clans?

[theyuusuf143]

Gubbet

I have two questions for you.

What type of Jubaland would you envision in post Madoobe era?

Both Sade and Absame have their own clan grievances against one another, so do you believe a bloodless territorial and political settlement is possible between aforementioned clans?

I think these marexan guys drink their own piss. They made cagdheer more extremely suspicious of them. Even their so called jubaland loyalists betrayed Ahmed madoobe probably because of their Clan pressure. Dheri ninkii u dhaw baa laf Ka rita. Sheekhaal has More chance of becoming kismayo admin than marehan.

[BestP]

Gubbet

I have two questions for you.

What type of Jubaland would you envision in post Madoobe era?

Both Sade and Absame have their own clan grievances against one another, so do you believe a bloodless territorial and political settlement is possible between aforementioned clans?

I think these marexan guys drink their own piss. They made cagdheer more extremely suspicious of them. Even their so called jubaland loyalists betrayed Ahmed madoobe probably because of their Clan pressure. Dheri ninkii u dhaw baa laf Ka rita. Sheekhaal has More chance of becoming kismayo admin than marehan.

Having lost the support of Jaama Siyaad loyalist to Harti, having lost Tukaraq,Laascanood, and Gambadhe to a united Dhulbaante fully backed by their Harti kinsmen .What is next for iidoor warlords ?

seemingly , HJ colonels are the ones pushing for military action against Dhulbaante .Cali Barre, Ina Bootaan, Ina Ciid ,Kaahin are all saying "Dhulbaante Xabad ayuu ku miyirsadaa!"

Is war the only option you have and if that is the case, how confident are your men in defeating the entire Harti clan in the midst of Harti-land?

[Gubbet]

Gubbet

I have two questions for you.

What type of Jubaland would you envision in post Madoobe era?

Both Sade and Absame have their own clan grievances against one another, so do you believe a bloodless territorial and political settlement is possible between aforementioned clans?

Yes, it is possible. I always say this for the folks who over balloon the issue between "Ogaden" and "Marehan."

Ogaden and Marehan are not "natural" foes.

They are really not.

Natural foes are Marehan and Habar Gidir in Mudug. Natural foes are Ogaden and Degoodiye in Wajeer county.

Marehan and Ogaden are not "natural" foes. Even the clashes in Somali region in Qoroxeey between Makaahiil and MX are not "naturally" created hostility, they are "politically created."

One way to judge what I mean is in that entire area of Jubbaland where there is a blending and shading and rubbing against each other, you never hear an equity clash in grazing, water, or amy of the like between MX and OG.

You never see MX counting every single waterhole and inch of movement on their boundary with Ogaden that you see with MX in Mudug.

So it is important to understand "all" of this is really political in nature and so I do not envision at all "Ogaden" and "MX" fighting.

However, I cannot say whether "Ras Kamboni" or political actors which are yet to form a political organization will lead to fighting because of the political problem created by Madoobe's inability to realize "time is up."

To me, Ogaden who are Madoobe supporters are sort of their own self-fulfilling prophecy.

Madoobe is the status quo.

A change in the status quo will only result in his removal.

Any change.

They have set themselves up to be defeated when that happens.

That's really an important point to drive home.

They WILL feel defeated and be dejected and be injurious and feel deprived of belonging and all of these things BECAUSE they are unable to imagine a different world other than one in which Madoobe is monarch in eternity.

Change is inevitable. Why make it harder on yourself by not realizing when someone has clearly become a has been??

[Nubis]

Inshallah kheir.

[theyuusuf143]

Gubbet

I have two questions for you.

What type of Jubaland would you envision in post Madoobe era?

Both Sade and Absame have their own clan grievances against one another, so do you believe a bloodless territorial and political settlement is possible between aforementioned clans?

I think these marexan guys drink their own piss. They made cagdheer more extremely suspicious of them. Even their so called jubaland loyalists betrayed Ahmed madoobe probably because of their Clan pressure. Dheri ninkii u dhaw baa laf Ka rita. Sheekhaal has More chance of becoming kismayo admin than marehan.

Having lost the support of Jaama Siyaad loyalist to Harti, having lost Tukaraq,Laascanood, and Gambadhe to a united Dhulbaante fully backed by their Harti kinsmen .What is next for iidoor warlords ?

seemingly , HJ colonels are the ones pushing for military action against Dhulbaante .Cali Barre, Ina Bootaan, Ina Ciid ,Kaahin are all saying "Dhulbaante Xabad ayuu ku miyirsadaa!"

Is war the only option you have and if that is the case, how confident are your men in defeating the entire Harti clan in the midst of Harti-land?

Militarily very confident, puntland militias has always been ineffective against somaliland , harti peaple are not involved the war . They are just unarmed civilians. Puntland forces including the dhulbahante ones are still way smaller and less funded than the Somaliland military. Politically we are not under pressure because our troops don't occupy the city , it's puntland militias who are roaming in the streets . If any one is leaving LA they will be first not us.

This war is politically complicated from all angles , the peaple wants to be independent from both puntland and somaliland, but puntland has different plans , they are not paying the cost of this war for free , they hope that eventually dhulbahante will all accept puntland out of hartinimo. But that won't happen , the right wing dhulmahantes won't accept, then you will see Pro somaliland forces regrouping. And then we are heading back to ground zero.

No one is winning this war , and we are not going anywhere . The only solution we will accept is referendum. Any thing less than this is not an option for somaliland. That's the only legitimate way all somaliland peaple can choose Their destiny. Those who vote to join Somalia will be granted freedom , those who vote for somaliland should get Their independence.

[BestP]

Gubbet

Degodiye and OGs are not natural enemies.These two clans co-exisit peacefully in Wajir.

In the late 80s, Ogaden lost Southern Gedo to Marexaan then backed by the fading military regime.Faafaxdhuun,Baardheere were once Cawlyahan strongholds.

Contarary to your claims, Al Shabaab had recently stopped Marehan expansion against Reer Afwaax clan of the Cawlyahan. That alone highlights Marehan intentions to dislodge Absame from Jubaland.

Having seized southern Gedo, Marehan are now trying to make significant inroads to the two Jubbas. That land grabbing antics is not welcomed by Absame.


Absame on the part want reconquer both Buaale and Baardheere. It is a matter of time but Cawlyahan won't give up their lost territories.


In a nutshell, Absame and Marehan are two extremist clans who can't peacefully coexist unless one is subdued in the battleground.Maybe an eminent war is unavoidable to decide the real guardians of the Juba Land .

[BestP]

Yuusuf

The referendum part is a silly joke, isn't it?

Factually, no Dhulbaante would ever want to share a country with SNM . The 13 Garaads had cemented a historic unity of Dhulbaantev(sorry but no room for iidoor intrusion) .The bormardment of La'Anod further strengthened the decoupling of Dhulbaante hor-gals from the SNM regime.The Jama Siyads were the last to break away from SNM .Garaad Mideeye and Fihima Quuje successfully neutralized the outcast Mahad Cambaashe.

I also very much doubt about the strength of SNM militia having failed to launch a successful infantry offensive against La'Anod for two months. The dejected Iidoors are now playing defensive in the fortified Goojacade while many HY men are abandoning their positions .


Politically you lost the entire Dhulbaante clan.The selfless MJ support reinvented Hartinimo ( a counterbalance to Iidoorism). In addition, Deni and MJs seemingly have no issue with khatumo state that has close societal and economic relationship with Puntland.Above everything else HARTI unity is paramount in a world where Iidoorism and Irirism are posing a significant threat to the existence of the Darods.

As the infamous Faisal Ali Waraabe said, Cudud Ciidan iyo Mid Siyaasad toona meesha kuma haysaan

[Gubbet]

In the late 80s, Ogaden lost Southern Gedo to Marexaan then backed by the fading military regime.Faafaxdhuun,Baardheere were once Cawlyahan strongholds.

Fact checking False Mythology #1: Marehan took over Faafaxdhuun in 1916 according to direct British East Africa Protectorate Records:

Faafaxdhuun Ogaden grievance vs Siad Barre is an extreme example of false mythologizing for unrelated clan identity insecurity considerations.

In particular, it is the mythology used to assauge grievance making.

1. You guys talk incessantly about it claiming it as where "Siad Barre" removed the last Ogaden grazing in Gedo.
   • In reality Marehan seized Faafaxdhuun through active state of hostilities over a 100 years ago
2. In 1917, TS Thomas, the Senior Assistant to Nairobi based EAP Governor Belfield wrote from on the ground in Serinley (a suburb of Baardheere), the exact year, month, and date Marehan seized Faafaxdhuun, part of then Serinlay District, after deciding to finally end Abdirahman Mursal's belligerance.
   • It was not even the British, but Marehan who made him flee back to Ethiopia once and for all after the 1916 seizure of Faafaxdhuun, the destruction of his maxim gun, and even inflicting a serious wound on him
3. The oddly ahistorical fixation with Faafaxdhuun as a Siad Barre inflicted grievance by Ogaden is simple, not complex to explain as an ethos for myth creation
   
   • Faafaxdhuun was just another watering hole like all others in the land. The reason Ogaden make a huge issue out of Faafaxdhuun is because of the psychological impact and inference to be drawn internally about group identity since it is where the decisive Marehan defeat of Abdirahman Mursal was forever concluded.
     
     • There was no more Abdirahman Mursal in the entire land, issue, or context of the whole of the new land after the Marehan victory and seizure of Faafahdhuun.
4. He literally fled back to Ethiopia, whence he originally migrated from, and he died in his ancestral lands in Afdheer.
   • It would have been extraordinarily unusual for Ogaden oral history, like all nomadic Somali oral history, to recognize and contribute to the codification and passing down of such, objectively-speaking, an "ignomonious defeat" conclusively settled at their greatest expense; namely the informing factor of Somali clan identity in-group and their oral historical continuity of valor, strength, and perpetual victory, etc etc etc
     
     Apparently the only things in subjective Somali historiagraphy going by what our clans tell us.
5. They could not and did not ever recognize Faafaxdhuun was lost in 1916, because to do so would be to recognize WHY it was lost.
   
   • No Somali clan would voluntarily recognize why a Faafaxdhuun was lost in 1916.
6. So of course, then, 'Siad Barre stole it for Marehan."
   • Remarkably unfortunate for Ogaden in this situation, the British Government was now ruling this part of the Somali territory and Mr TS Thomas, the Senior Assistant to Nairobi based EAP Governor Belfield, was now officially tasked with on the record field scribing.

Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=eLA1AQAAMAAJ&pg=PA63

[Gubbet]

Fact checking False Mythology #1: Italian 1933 records show Marehan were the "largest" Darod community in the town of Baardheere; in fact 2X larger than all other Darods combined, including Aulian.

The 1933 Italian statistical attempt ("census") has great many shortcomings including the fact it discloses in the very beginning that it's "count" of "Marehan," singularly mind you not referencing a single other community, is "imprecise" even using the methodology they used for all the other communities essentially disclaiming their inability to count just how large the Marehan nomadic population was.

However, their count in the "towns" or urban residential settlements particular the seat of districts like Baardheere "town" was the most "accurate" of the census in totality.

1. There was Bardere TOWN ("CENTRO") and Bardere the DISTRICT ("COMPRENSORIO")
   
   • 
2. Baardeere the Italian DISTRICT was 1/3 in today's Bay (Diinsor), 50% in today's Middle Jubba (Buaale and Salagle ), and 20% in today's northern Afmadoow district (Hagar-Diif)
   
   • 
3. So the "Baardheere" parts that was settled by Ogaden wasn't even part of today's Baardheere, Gedo. Those parts of Italian Baardheere district are today Bu'aale and Saakooe district of Middle Jubba.
   • 
4. But the town ("centro") of Bardere had Marehan as the largest Darod group.
   
   • 
5. In fact, Bardere the TOWN had 2X as much Marehan as all of the rest of Darod combined.

Let another false myth die for goodneasake.

[Gubbet]

No more ahistorical grievance making false mythologizing. The spin has been stopped by "records" and "fact/evidence."

Now go back and log in to "Elite-Somali" because no matter how much you change your shirts you still have that grifting tone.

Literally man, you speak, live, and breathe "fake news/disinformation." Waa yaab!

[Gubbet]

P.S. I would like to add that by no means is my tone or anything else directed at "Cawlyahan." In fact, there is nothing I would love better than to see an Cawlyahan right this second moving to Baardheere if he so wishes. I welcome it. I even encourage it. Cawlyahan ARE "Reer Baardheere" especially in my own personal opinion. They were there, they should be there now, and they will be there tomorrow. Cawlyahan welcome, you are my brothers. I respect, recognize, and affirm your equity. In fact, wallahul cadiim welcome to Garbahaareey to Beled-Xaawo---I do not have a single reservation about this, in fact just the opposite, I welcome you.


I am just correcting the historical record from this rabble rousing Madoobe-supporter who is not even Cawlyahan!

[BestP]

The Sack of Serenli

At 7 p.m., while the askaris, or African soldiers, were settling down to evening meals, the Aulihan burst upon the British post. The Somalis set the surprised soldiers' huts on fire, and killed many of them as they fled the flames. By one account, 'Abdurrahman Mursaal himself is said to have shot Elliot beneath the ear with a revolver, and by another, to have donned Elliot's sun helmet after the raid. Dozens of Elliot's men were killed in the attack, while the survivors escaped across the Juba River to the nearby Italian post at Baardheere. The Somalis captured the company's maxim gun along with large quantities of arms and ammunition. For the next 18 months, 'Abdurrahman Mursaal's northern Aulihan, strengthened by the acquisition of British weapons, held free reign over much of Jubaland and threatened British rule in the NFD as well. Indeed, a British officer with service in the region would later describe the Ogaden, of whom the Aulihan were a part, as "one of the most formidable fighting tribes in Africa" because of their mobility with their ponies, remarkable endurance, and the skill with which they wielded their spears.

Marehan helped the colonial British to defeat Cawlyahan .In other words, Marehan were the stooges of the white man that defeated Hajji Abdirahman.

Aware of Marehan hostilities with the Aulihan, Barrett still thought the Marehan unreliable allies, and proposed that the British go it alone against the rebels. 104 It is significant to recognize that Barrett later changed his mind, and decided to take help where he could get it. In October, the colonel secretly ordered the Reer Farah Ogas section of the clan to send men to free his askaris from tending captured stock during operations against the Aulihan. 105 Thus, 800 Marehan would accompany the punitive expedition that defeated the northern Aulihan.

[BestP]

P.S. I would like to add that by no means is my tone or anything else directed at "Cawlyahan." In fact, there is nothing I would love better than to see an Cawlyahan right this second moving to Baardheere if he so wishes. I welcome it. I even encourage it. Cawlyahan ARE "Reer Baardheere" especially in my own personal opinion. They were there, they should be there now, and they will be there tomorrow. Cawlyahan welcome, you are my brothers. I respect, recognize, and affirm your equity. In fact, wallahul cadiim welcome to Garbahaareey to Beled-Xaawo---I do not have a single reservation about this, in fact just the opposite, I welcome you.


I am just correcting the historical record from this rabble rousing Madoobe-supporter who is not even Cawlyahan!

Miskiin isla wayn baa tahay


Cawlyahan sacked the British colonial post in Serenli, the killed Elliot and his Askaris. Later on, Cawlyahan suffered heavily from the British revenge campaign which had sought help from 800 Marehan fighters.

Bardhere was always Cawlyahan - Raaxwayn town before the failed dictator changed the clan dynamics of the town.

Faafaxdhuun was Rer Afgaab(Reer Caafi) stronghold up untill 1988 when the failed Kacaan armed Marehan expansionists.


In short, with that silly zero-sum mentality, Marehan and Absame are destined to fight for the prized Jubaland. You Lost Kismayo that was not enough.You will either fufil your dream and capture Kismayo or I will come to reclaim my land in Gedo.


Caqli Ina kala wadi karo meesha kuma arko sxb.Marna taagtaa marna tamartaa