Ruto advisor Ahmednasir: Kenya should withdraw from Kismaayo to protect Northeastern.

[Gubbet]

He says 10 years of protecting the 'Manchurian' plant in Kismaayo (Madoobe) is a "failure" with Al Shabaab now operating in more Kenyan territory then before the invasion.

[Gubbet]

Mandera Gov Khalif "Al Shabaab is now present in at least 60% of Mandera County"







"Present" today, "In Control" tomorrow is the unstated alarm

[Gubbet]

Prof Abdiwahab of Kenya "It is time to pull the plug on Madoobe protected in few kms for a decade while more of Kenya has fallen vulnerable to Al Shabaab"

[Gubbet]

This tells me there is coordination and that coordination going by Ahmednasir's closeness to Ruto is coming from within Kenya government.

It tells me the ground work is being prepared for pulling the rug out from Madoobe where "protection" is concerned---

---to then be neutralized to everyone's relief by...[Barre Hiiraale].

[Gubbet]

Do you recall the fanfare of so many "Somalis" posted to high security positions recently by Ruto?

I now see what is going on with the stand off between Uburu Kenyetta's family (son) and the Kenyan law enforcement.

There is going to be a serious "housecleaning," even a "purge" if you will of all the corrupt security brass that fleeced Kenya under Uhuru's 10 years.

These include the corrupt Kenyan "sugar/charcoal" generals/army brass who facilitated the Madoobe rouse in Kismaayo which was a front for illicit sugar smuggling. You can even bet Uhuru's political team, if not himself, were taking their cut.

But that's why the Somalis were given command of high security postings because 1.) they are neutral, 3rd party to the ethnic component of these fights (Ruto Kalenjin, Uhuru Kikuyu, Odinga Luo) which preemptively protects Ruto from ethnic charges amd also does not have to 2md guess they will follow orders.

Ahmed Madoobe is going to be slammed by Ruto gov because he was a rouse for team Uhuru.

When was the last time you saw Madoobe go to Kenya? Not once since Ruto was elected.

[theyuusuf143]

Ustaad miyaan la odhan karin Kenya waxa lagaga duula deegaankiina. Armuu wasiir uunsi diyaarado idinku soo kiciya . Axmed madoobe waxa idinkaga khatar badan Mr uunsi. That's my genuine opinion. Ninkaas wasiir uunsi waa nin sawaaxiligana la biyo cabay , authority ga KDF na haysta isla markaana qadiyadayada cagdheer ta aaminsan , waa nin soomaliyeed oo kolayba shacabkiina beegsan maayo laakiin waan hubaa inuu aagaas rushaynayo , hubka xasaysta yaan alshabaab ahaan laydiin diline.

[Gubbet]

Ustaad miyaan la odhan karin Kenya waxa lagaga duula deegaankiina. Armuu wasiir uunsi diyaarado idinku soo kiciya . Axmed madoobe waxa idinkaga khatar badan Mr uunsi. That's my genuine opinion. Ninkaas wasiir uunsi waa nin sawaaxiligana la biyo cabay , authority ga KDF na haysta isla markaana qadiyadayada cagdheer ta aaminsan , waa nin soomaliyeed oo kolayba shacabkiina beegsan maayo laakiin waan hubaa inuu aagaas rushaynayo , hubka xasaysta yaan alshabaab ahaan laydiin diline.

Howlahaan wasiir uunsi iyo Somali Sijuis ba ka wayn.

Maroodi hardama, cawska burburo.

Wasiir Uunsi, Somali, Jubbaland issue waa wada caws and Ahmed Madoobe and Uhuru's 10 year "dhegdheg" waa cawska qaybtiisa uu ku hardamaya Maroodigaas!

[theyuusuf143]

In my opinion Kenya maaha Ethiopia oo kale oo dhaqanka somalida taqaan. Kenya waa Dal democratic ah oo aanad lumin karin sxb siyaasaded. Weliba markad tahay laangaab sida ruto oo kale ah . Hadii uunsi idin duqeeyo ruto wuu iska indha tiraya waxyeeladas , votes kiisa u muhiimsan. Uunsina sujuu maaha waa cagdheer faradheera oo la afkaara axmed madoobe. Armaad cawska noqotaan jaalayayal .

Sidan marar horeba sheegay , Axmed madoobe is not your problem. He is going to leave any way . You better deal with him before the cawlyahan. Niman caqli badan baad ahaan jirtiiine habaarkan idinku dhacay garan maayo , aduunka waxa idiinku daran markay lo,oleyda cawlyahan Axmed madoobe dhaxlaan. Xadiis xitaa kaga furfuri maysan meesha. Sideedaba dadka lo,oda dhaqda iyo beeralaydu waa very defensive and territorial. Meeshay qabsadan naftay dul dhigaan . Waar armuu khayr idiinku jiraa geeljiraha reer cabdule ee idin dhaqan fahmaya.

[Gubbet]

Afaarahaan ma fahansanid walaal look back at my post above before last;

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 2#p5054577

[theyuusuf143]

Before I look back , let's say haday cawl yahan meesha qabsadaan this year or the next , ilaa 2035 Ka bay haysanayan . They gonna copy axmed madoobe. Dhaqan ka siyaadeed ee cagdheer Tu hadba ninka meesha haysta bay Ku daba tukadaan bi Samci wadaaca , niman democratic ah maaha oo buuq badan . Ka ugu doqonsan haduu qabsado amarkiisay Ku shaqeeyan.

[Gubbet]

Before I look back , let's say haday cawl yahan meesha qabsadaan this year or the next , ilaa 2035 Ka bay haysanayan . They gonna copy axmed madoobe. Dhaqan ka siyaadeed ee cagdheer Tu hadba ninka meesha haysta bay Ku daba tukadaan bi Samci wadaaca , niman democratic ah maaha oo buuq badan . Ka ugu doqonsan haduu qabsado amarkiisay Ku shaqeeyan.

It is fascinating to see you point out something I have sufficiently observed about Ogaden socio-politico history namely channeling everything in to a "HIM" which always comes with certain defeat and long set back... until the next "HIM."

Ogaden is principally a clan of "OUR"

Majeerteen is principally a clan of "WE."

Marehan is principally a clan of "US."

I explained what that means using game theory;

I will say this there is a classic paradigm here informed by both Marehan and Ogaden political history that says Marehan will essentially win the battle of wills.

And they will win not necessarily because of any of the subjective things one can argue (majority/minority, etc), but they will win purely because of nature or a difference in the natural features of the two clans as a social organizations.

It has to do with basic social organizational difference between the two.

Here is a simple game theory of what I meant;

1. A dead man is dead. Tomorrow he is food for worms.
2. A captured man is alive, but no better than a bird with clipped wings.
3. A man in retreat may have to hunt for food and sleep with wolves even, but is a bigger threat tomorrow than he was yesterday.

Ladies and Gentleman, there is only one outcome for Jubbaland according to what history informs us about the consistent observable pattern of choices, consequence, and outcomes of the social organizations involved.

Whether this trajectory can be avoided or affected positively or negatively for all or any of the groups involved---that no one can predict.

Look at Wiilwaal, Abdirahman Mursaal, Sayid, and now Madoobe.

Jigjiga was lost, Fafahdhuun and Bardere were lost, Daroor was lost, and now just going by the total sum of the last 10 years of the perfect opportunity, the sum investment of Ogaden had been invested into the "personhood" of Madoobe.

Exactly look at Abdirahman Mursal and the British in Jubbaland era---it was "Abdirahman Mursaal" vs. "Marehan." Men die; a collective doesn't.

Look at say "SPM" and "SNF" in the early 90's. Though so much more consequential and astronomically more relevant than SPM, you will never see a Marehan reference "SNF" outside of a historical discussion. You will never see a Marehan have as a nick "SNFboy". SNF was just a word for "us' and something else replaced, but " SPM" was " Our man, Cumar Jees" to Ogaden and so it has to be remembered because ... men move on

The reason why " Shire Jama" is not with the grandest of names due to his script or " Cali Mataan Hashi" due to his 1st flight or even why Adan Loow isn't or even HIRAABE'S memory so contextualized by the Futah among his Somali contemporary is because MAREHAN IS A CLAN OF "US" ---those men just represented us and something else replaced them.

Imagine if those guys were "Ogaden"---my God, there would be no "Wiilwaal," it would be supplanted by an all encompassing deified astronomically mythologized "Hiraabe" the equivalent of "Zeus" in Somali culture, half immortal.

In between us two is Majeerteen the WE, We Miguirtinia, we Obbia, we Harti of Kismaayo during Morgan.

Majeerteen recalls really remarkable, noteworthy standouts like Kenadid, but at the same time Kenadid's importance was something owned by "We, Obbia Sultanate."

So in that case they are half between Ogaden who are represented in ONE man and Marehan who are represented in NO man.

In the end;

• Ogaadeen tend to fight until they perish in the end with HIM, Abdirahman Mursal/Omar Jees, the one "OUR" man.
• Majeerteen tend to fight until surrender in the end so WE, Puntland/Obbia, can continue to exist.
• Marehan tend to fight until they have to retreat so in the end US, Sade/Mareexaan, can resurge tomorrow if not tonight, or even next week

Qaan Mareexaan, Sade soo rogaal celi, Laguu yaab ilaahay kuu yasiro----imagine how many sayings Somalis gave MX and all just about AFTER you thought you defeated them----they will come back to put a dagger in your heart.

For Majeerteen, it is all about AFTER you trust them (accept thair surrender), coming back to find a way to gut you to escape and freedom.

For Ogaadeen---nothing, but delayed grief for a hundreds of years because whatever that was the value perished with "him" that was personified as the value.

[theyuusuf143]

Anigu our us iyo we faraqa u dhexeeya garan maayee afsomali ahaan waxan kuu sheegaya ogaden Ka idinkaaaba dhul Ka haysta oo ay idiinka samreen . Dhulkan cusub ee ay xoraysteena idiinma diidana ee idinka belaysan. Waar meesha yaan cawl yahan idinka qaadi. Nagnagta badana joojiya , 3 qoloba siyaasad xumadooda waan Ka yaabay. Mareexaan garxajis iyo dhulmahante. Wax idinka itaal xun oo idinka hanjabaad badan weligay maan arag. Qaan taad sheegaysa waa nooc minal cuqdad uun. Oo la romanticise gareeyey. Wax lagu faanaba maaha.

[Gubbet]

Cawlyahankaad ku soo celcelisay iyagu iyo Reer Bicidyahanka Majeerteen waa honorary Mareexaan. In fact in anything concerning Mareexaan-Cawlyahan Xeerka Mareexaan dhexdiisa ayaa arrinta lagu dhaqaa. Lo'layna maaha ragaas, Reer Abdillahaad sheegeyso ee Afmadoow baa lo'leey ah. Cawlyahan waa rag caano geel kaadsha.

Runtiine anigu shaqsiyan si khaas ah ayaan Cawlyahanka u jeclahay mid isaga ahne oo Jubbaland madaxwayne ka noqdo waan wax aan ka qabi lahaa majirto waayo lagama yaabo inuu u dhaqmo sida Hamza iyo Ahmed Madoobe oo u dhaqmaya sida nimaan aan wadan dhaxal ka oolin oo gelin ciyaar ah u yimid. Cawlayahanka waa reerka ugu xuquuqda badan Absamaha Soomaaliya. Waliba mid Cawlyahan waan soo dhawayn lahaa oo waa xaqiiq kuwa badanoo ila Mareexaan ah balse horgal dhuuni qaata ah bay dhaamaan.

[Gubbet]

Qaan taad sheegaysa waa nooc minal cuqdad uun. Oo la romanticise gareeyey. Wax lagu faanaba maaha.

Nin walbaa cuqdad leh cidu ka ma faaloonse.

Do you know the difference between "rabitaan" (desire) and "ujeeddo" (objective)?

Go'aan (proactive intent)

The difference between "cuqdad" (resentment) and "qaan" (retribution)

Go'aan (proactive intent)

[theyuusuf143]

Somalida oo dhanba is jecel xiliga barwaaqada. Xitaa isaaqu way jecel yihiin mareexaan ka. Anigaygan kula hadlaya mareexaan ku abaal badan bay igu leeyihiin, mid badana waan u galay. Xitaa doodan aan kugula jiraa waa hiil aan dadka shacabka ah ee mareexaan u hiilinayo. Joojiya siyaasad xumada ummadu degenaansho iyo xasilooni bay doonaysa . Ma doonayan buuq. Weligay xitaa maan arag shacab mareexaana oo kismayo degan oo dhibaato Ku qaba ogaaden Ka meesha haysta. Xumaan baad Ka raadinaysaan tolkiin aan loo baahnayn. Mida kale Anigu garanba maayo madaxtinimada mareexaan maanta raadinayo.

Adeer beerihiina qota oo kalluumaysta hadii madaxtinimo wax tarto heerka ugu sareeya baad Ka gaadheen in history. Dadkan ooman haysku taataabanina. Ogaaden Ku waa niman xorriyad u ooman iyo meelay Ku nefisaan , markad xamse iyo Axmed madoobe weerartan waxay u arkaan inaad jiritaankooda la dagaalamayso. Kuuma arkaan nin siyaasi hebel diidan. Dadka yaan madaxa laysu gelin.