Kenya in Jubbaland is sleep walking towards a clan war with Marehan.

[Gubbet]

Kenya should heed the lessons from Ethiopia's experience in Somalia.

Ethiopia invaded Gedo in 1996, a full decade before AMISOM was drafted to enter Somalia. Ethiopia had invaded in 1996 bumbling everywhere as KDF has been doing under AMISOM. They had invaded to fight Al Itihad Al Islami, the precursor to Al Shabaab in Somalia. Ethiopia, however, did not appreciate the distinction between "Al Itihad" and the "people of Gedo." It found itself in a clan war with Marehan. Ethiopia failed to neuter Al Itihad and had to withdraw and re-enter 2X---before course correcting and reorienting the relationship with Marehan the people. Al Itihad immediately disappeared as an institutional entity due to Marehan extricating itself as a clan from that entity after Ethiopia's course correction. Today the relationship between Ethiopia and Marehan is so radically different, it has even disarmed decades of enmity beyond the 90's invasion rooted in Somali irredentism and unresolved border grievances. Today, the sensitivity and care Ethiopia shows protecting that relationship with the Marehan community is what cements the historically remarkable and even commendable "friendly" working environment between Ethiopia and the Marehan community settling the majority of Jubbaland.

-The last 10 years of Uhuru government's subversive actions particularly in protecting Madoobe's detested rouse in Kismaayo
-The recurrent and egregious targeting of El Adde (Ceel Cadde) the scene of Kenya's worst military defeat in history which is seen by Marehan as "reprisal"
-The intolerable bad faith behavior and malice shown by the Hassan Sheekh government in Mogadishu

= A State of Exigency being considered so "intolerable" that I now can say Marehan is at "boiling point" and a clan war regarding KDF's presence in Jubbaland and Marehan is a matter of "WHEN" NOT "IF."

Farmajo and the position of the Somali Government prior to HSM was ironically a "de-escalating" presence.

Marehan was "deferring" to an "available recourse" that arrested reaching "boiling point." It was "yielding" to a possible option for "politically" resolving these festering grievances.

HSM government is considered an "enemy" just like the KDF in this grievance.

There is no more recourse for political redress.

MAREHAN WILL DECLARE A CLAN WAR AGAINST KDF PRESENCE IN JUBBALAND.

AMISOM has not faced a clan declaration of war like the Ethiopians did with Marehan in 1996 or even like the US Rangers did with Habar Gidir in 1993 which led to Black Hawk Down and dragging scenes.

Even the original El Adde setback for KDF was made astronomically more disastrous because Marehan the clan simply chose to stay neutral and not support/help the KDF.

Imagine when they are actually in a clan war.

I have believed for some time this was possible, but now, barring extraordinary course correction by Kenya, I now believe this is probable.

The below are Marehan military officers and security professionals now verbalizing for the 1st time "Marehan has come to a point" and they will be going back to "do something" about the "intolerable" KDF "over-extension" into Marehan and Jubbaland affairs.

When that shot rings out---a half dozen or dozen cultivated political agents with suits, which is what this long con is now relying on, will be immediately relegated to non-existent unimportance.

It will be tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of the Marehan "Man" and his "Rifle."

War Is Coming Between KDF in Jubbaland and the Marehan clan of Somalia.

And when that happens---Somalis have said "Ninkii Dhoof ku yimid bey Geeridu Dhibaysaa."

Death bothers---only---the Aggressor offending away from home. "

War Is Coming.

[Gubbet]

As an example that "something" has profoundly shifted in the "people" of Marehan, here is Madoobe Jubbaland's nominee for "Gedo Governor" Abdullahi Shimbir speaking in such a tone with remarks of such a nature lambasting "Kenya" regarding what he labels the "unacceptable " and "intolerable" targeting of "Ceelcadde."



I have reserved all opinion/theory on the motivation except to point to what he is saying as a barometer that something seriously has shifted in the "Marehan" people at large and that anyone with any basic level of hope trying to stay relevant among them is compelled to now take cues from the level of community anger.

[Gubbet]

There is now a phrase spreading like wildfire among Marehan today;

"Ceel Cadde waa loo aari--- Lowga hadii lagaa gubo, xagashada ka gub."

"Ceel Cadde will be avenged---If they burn your patella, burn their plantar."

Patella = front anterior part of knee
Plantar = back folding joint of knee



This is literally an "eye for an eye." It means any Kenyan, civilian or military is fair game. It says a "clan" war is forming in which it is no longer "KDF, part of AMISOM, is fighting a terrorist group in which some civilian casualties take place" but rather "The Marehan clan of Somalia is fighting a foreign enemy in Kenya on Marehan Somalia soil. "

Kenya needs to understand just where exactly the temperature is at right now. The status quo in Jubbaland is untenable.

[Gubbet]

title = Partitioned Africans: Ethnic Relations Across Africa's International Boundaries 1884-1984
author = Asiwaju A.I.
isbn = 9780905838915
lccn = gb84027034
url = https://books.google.com/books?id=1SByAAAAMAAJ
year = 1985
publisher = C. Hurst