Qooje Cade is not Ceelka Biyaha

[Nolol cusub]

Two things from the get go.

1. Qooje Cade is not a decisive battle and the Isaaqs are way too smart to turn against each other after a minor set back.

History Lesson: Hawiye vs Haraadigii Barre in early 1990s

In January 1991 Barre gets kicked out of Mogadishu and Hawiyes fight over who becomes the president. Cali Mahdi, the political wing of the USC(Sulux) declares himself a president. Caydiid(the military wing of the USC) leaves Mogadishu and tells Hawiye politicians to fend off themselves against a determined and motivated Haraadiga Barre. Cali Mahdi and his Hawiye generals embrace the challenge and go after the fleeing Barre's forces until Jilib. From early February to Mid April the determined forces of Haraadiga Barre deal a blow after blow to the highly disorganized, poorly led and poorly supplied USC militias. In late March Hawiye's traditional leaders and business community convene in Mogadishu and recall Caydiid from Mustaxiil to defend mogadishu.

The battle of Ceelka Biyaha

On April 18th Barre's forces were finally checked at Ceelka biyaha. In the early hours of April 19th, the real battle of the civil war began. In the ensuing nine hour battle, Barre's forces fought bravely and stood their ground. Eventually the military skills and the leadership of Caydiid and his lieutenants would carry the day. Overall, the Hawiyes fought bravely: The Hawadle's were decisive in flanking Barre's forces at Afgooye. In 3 weeks Caydiid and his lieutenants would organize a ragtag Hawiye militia into a formidable army and captures Kismaayo and Baydhaba simultaneously. Caydiid becomes USC chairman as agreed upon with Hawiye elders and business community.



The point:

Sometimes a short-sighted, an internal political division and a poor management can reduce one's effectiveness and lead to early defeat as was the case in the civil war. Sooner or later Somaliland will defeat Haraadiga Barre's forces.


2. The Nugaal Basin is a highly strategic and valuable oil rich region for Somaliland and it is highly unlikely that Somaliland would relinquish it that easily. Sometimes one can win a battle but lose the bigger war. This is exactly how this is shaping up to be. You also have a proxy war between two states with foreign dimensions. It is South Sudan in Nugal Valley all over again.

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[original dervish]

I was wondering when this guy would show up.
I thought perhaps he was too self aware to show his face after being proved wrong in all his analyses.

Now he's back with another bs analysis of yesterday's stunning victory.

I've noticed there are two kinds of people whom are in deep depression and consternation, at the calamitous defeat inflicted upon the oppressors.

1)Obviously the iidoors themselves.
2) Anti Darood hagites, not to be confused with right thinking Hawiye, and their guests.

The entire iidoor army has been utterly destroyed.
All their heavy weapons, artillery, tanks, rockets are in the possession of the SSC liberation forces.

We have killed or captured all of their senior military officers, including their supreme commander.

Every square inch of SSC has been fully liberated, and our forces are right this minute establishing new military garrisons and bases all along the western border with iidoors.

To suggest that the iidoors can recover from this is wishful thinking, motivated by hate and delusion.
This war is well and truly over.
Allahu Akbar!

[Nolol cusub]

The entire iidoor army has been utterly destroyed.
All their heavy weapons, artillery, tanks, rockets are in the possession of the SSC liberation forces.

We have killed or captured all of their senior military officers, including their supreme commander.

Decoding the quote above: Somaliland put all their eggs in one basket and Las canno villagers managed to steal it. Yey smart

And you would think Haraadiga Barre have learned their lesson after 20 years of defeat after defeat. Nope


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[original dervish]

There is nothing amusing about war.
We have lost of 1500 civilians and combatants.
They paid the ultimate price to liberate our lands from the oppressors.

[Gubbet]

Two things from the get go.

1. Qooje Cade is not a decisive battle and the Isaaqs are way too smart to turn against each other after a minor set back.

History Lesson: Hawiye vs Haraadigii Barre in early 1990s

In January 1991 Barre gets kicked out of Mogadishu and Hawiyes fight over who becomes the president. Cali Mahdi, the political wing of the USC(Sulux) declares himself a president. Caydiid(the military wing of the USC) leaves Mogadishu and tells Hawiye politicians to fend off themselves against a determined and motivated Haraadiga Barre. Cali Mahdi and his Hawiye generals embrace the challenge and go after the fleeing Barre's forces until Jilib. From early February to Mid April the determined forces of Haraadiga Barre deal a blow after blow to the highly disorganized, poorly led and poorly supplied USC militias. In late March Hawiye's traditional leaders and business community convene in Mogadishu and recall Caydiid from Mustaxiil to defend mogadishu.

The battle of Ceelka Biyaha

On April 18th Barre's forces were finally checked at Ceelka biyaha. In the early hours of April 19th, the real battle of the civil war began. In the ensuing nine hour battle, Barre's forces fought bravely and stood their ground. Eventually the military skills and the leadership of Caydiid and his lieutenants would carry the day. Overall, the Hawiyes fought bravely: The Hawadle's were decisive in flanking Barre's forces at Afgooye. In 3 weeks Caydiid and his lieutenants would organize a ragtag Hawiye militia into a formidable army and captures Kismaayo and Baydhaba simultaneously. Caydiid becomes USC chairman as agreed upon with Hawiye elders and business community.



The point:

Sometimes a short-sighted, an internal political division and a poor management can reduce one's effectiveness and lead to early defeat as was the case in the civil war. Sooner or later Somaliland will defeat Haraadiga Barre's forces.


2. The Nugaal Basin is a highly strategic and valuable oil rich region for Somaliland and it is highly unlikely that Somaliland would relinquish it that easily. Sometimes one can win a battle but lose the bigger war. This is exactly how this is shaping up to be. You also have a proxy war between two states with foreign dimensions. It is South Sudan in Nugal Valley all over again.

=

Nigga Goojacadde was the northern theater's "Beled-Xaawo" that ended USC's entire goals replacing Barre nationally in the southern theater.

Goojacadde is as seismic for the north as the battle of Beled Xaawo was for the south.

Except in Goojacadde Bootaan was captured while Shabeel was killed in Beled-Xaawo

[Nolol cusub]

Hawiyes are fully familiar with the circus, but I want Isaaqa to fully understand what they are dealing with.


1. In Late 1976 the Soviet Politburo warned Barre and Haraadigiisa not to invade Ethiopia. Actually, Fidel Castro flew to Mogadishu to explicitly tell Barre that if he invaded Ethiopia his army will be decimated prompto. The Carter administration told Barre via the US ambassador that America will not allow Ethiopia to be invaded. The two superpowers both warned him that he will lose and that his army will be decimated if he invaded their friend. Few months later Somalia's Barre led army was threatening Addis Ababa. Diplomats in Moscow and Washington were both laughing their assess off, "Didn't Castro warn this guy?". The result: Somalia never recovers from such stupidity.

2. Another gem. In early April 1992, Haraadiga Barre attacks Mogadishu, a city of two million inhabitants, with 2000 malnourished "brave" clansmen. The week before Barre gave an interview to the BBC and he told he was returning to Mogadishu. At Bar Ubax and Cafes across Mogadishu everyone was cracking up. Two weeks later he was in Nigeria.

This is the circus or the problem depending how you look at it. It never changes, always pushing the envelop. It may not be upto the super power level, lol

=

[Gubbet]

I was wondering when this guy would show up.
I thought perhaps he was too self aware to show his face after being proved wrong in all his analyses.

Now he's back with another bs analysis of yesterday's stunning victory.

I've noticed there are two kinds of people whom are in deep depression and consternation, at the calamitous defeat inflicted upon the oppressors.

1)Obviously the iidoors themselves.
2) Anti Darood hagites, not to be confused with right thinking Hawiye, and their guests.

The entire iidoor army has been utterly destroyed.
All their heavy weapons, artillery, tanks, rockets are in the possession of the SSC liberation forces.

We have killed or captured all of their senior military officers, including their supreme commander.

Every square inch of SSC has been fully liberated, and our forces are right this minute establishing new military garrisons and bases all along the western border with iidoors.

To suggest that the iidoors can recover from this is wishful thinking, motivated by hate and delusion.
This war is well and truly over.
Allahu Akbar!

He is a little inebriated as Murax said.

[Gubbet]

Hawiyes are fully familiar with the circus, but I want Isaaqa to fully understand what they are dealing with.


1. In Late 1976 the Soviet Politburo warned Barre and Haraadigiisa not to invade Ethiopia. Actually, Fidel Castro flew to Mogadishu to explicitly tell Barre that if he invaded Ethiopia his army will be decimated prompto. The Carter administration told Barre via the US ambassador that America will not allow Ethiopia to be invaded. The two superpowers both warned him that he will lose and that his army will be decimated if he invaded their friend. Few months later Somalia's Barre led army was threatening Addis Ababa. Diplomats in Moscow and Washington were both laughing their assess off, "Didn't Castro warn this guy?". The result: Somalia never recovers from such stupidity.

2, Another gem. In early April 1992, Haraadiga Barre attacks Mogadishu, a city of two million inhabitants, with 2000 malnourished "brave" clansmen. The week before Barre gave an interview to the BBC and he told he was returning to Mogadishu. At Bar Ubax and Cafes across Mogadishu everyone was cracking up. Two weeks later he was in Nigeria.

This is the circus or the problem depending how you look at it. It never changes, always pushing the envelop. It may not be upto the super power level, lol

=

Goojacadde= Beled-Xaawo

Controlling the former British Somaliland died in Goojacadde just like controlling the former Italian Somaliland died in Beled-Xaawo.

[Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE]

Another …cuqdad ridden hawiye ..doing free niiko..nigga mesha lagula bax ..go wash your musty cheerleading drawls

[Nolol cusub]

Nigga Goojacadde was the northern theater's "Beled-Xaawo" that ended USC's entire goals replacing Barre nationally in the southern theater.

Goojacadde is as seismic for the north as the battle of Beled Xaawo was for the south.

Except in Goojacadde Bootaan was captured while Shabeel was killed in Beled-Xaawo

Sadly the accusation being leveled here is that Haraadiga Barre cannot perceive reality as it is, which is a great advantage to non Haraadiga Barre.

A case in point:

Goojacadde was the northern theater's "Beled-Xaawo" that ended USC's entire goals replacing Barre nationally in the southern theater.

The USC has literally achieved its objective of getting rid off Barre once and for all. In addition, Caydiid spent 4 months in Gedo while Barre was dying in exile in Nigeria. Shabeel died at the initial phase of Xadka iyo Xawaaraha while preventing Barre from crossing the border. He was too fast.

That was the last battle of the civil war in the South. It ended the war. We won.

=

[theyuusuf143]

Despite the symbolic victory for the SSC , the casualties is actually one of lowest recorded compare to the previous battles. For unknown reasons fast majority of somaliland army left goojacade all the way to Oog 2 hours before the battle of maraaga. SSC got this information and they immediately headed West taking over the main road between lascaanod and Oog. Then they targeted the last conveys who were unaware of the enemies blocking the road. Its easy to to neutralize moving conveys and take those on board as a prisoners. That's exactly what happened. There was no heavy battle at all except the maraaga area.

[theyuusuf143]

I don't think isaaqs Will fight over this defeat. We have already realised we won't win This war , Even if we kill all Their men and take Their garaads as prisoners. Yes we can do. But what are we trying to achieve here ? If the goal is to take dhulbahante land and give to the isaaqs it's understandable , both HJ and HY would love that. We have been practicing this method for generations.

If the goal is to rule the peaple as a good citizens of somaliland. That's the definition of doqoniimo. These peaple are our enemies none of them supports somaliland except Those we pay them . There is no point of wasting our time and resources on these ungrateful peaple. Soon they will turn against each other. Because the only thing that unites harti is the hatred they have for isaaqs.

We better stay our land , fix our internal issues and economy, and get rid of muuse biixi. Secondly we must allocate millions of dollars to fight our enemies inside Xamar politically . If lascaanod can become federal state , then caynabo is also a federal state, we should also aim to take over the office of the prime minister. Ma hooyadood baa daarod ka u qortay meesha , we have equal representatives and they contribute nothing to Somalia, in fact they don't even vote for the hawiye presidents , We do, making us more important , reliable partners of the hutus.

[Gubbet]

Nigga Goojacadde was the northern theater's "Beled-Xaawo" that ended USC's entire goals replacing Barre nationally in the southern theater.

Goojacadde is as seismic for the north as the battle of Beled Xaawo was for the south.

Except in Goojacadde Bootaan was captured while Shabeel was killed in Beled-Xaawo

Sadly the accusation being leveled here is that Haraadiga Barre cannot perceive reality as it is, which is a great advantage to non Haraadiga Barre.

A case in point:

Goojacadde was the northern theater's "Beled-Xaawo" that ended USC's entire goals replacing Barre nationally in the southern theater.

The USC has literally achieved its objective of getting rid off Barre once and for all. In addition, Caydiid spent 4 months in Gedo while Barre was dying in exile in Nigeria. Shabeel died at the initial phase of Xadka iyo Xawaaraha while preventing Barre from crossing the border. He was too fast.

That was the last battle of the civil war in the South. It ended the war. We won.

=

You don't know anything about this history. USC was in Gedo for 1 month and 4 days---EXACTLY. USC captured Gedo April 28, 1992. They were defeated by the 1st week of June, 1992. Altogether less than 1 month and 1 week (1 month and 4 days substantively).{I explain far below why they even came to be implicated in Gedo for that 1 month}.


USC had 1 single goal: REPLACE BARRE, NOT "bring down Barre." Otherwise, sherlock, they would have been part of one single anti-Barre rebel group with all the rebel groups. Again, the objective was "REPLACE BARRE." For you see, "replacing" cannotes having helped bring him down by default.

That was destroyed in the battle of Beled-Xaawo. The Battle of Beled-Xaawo continues to reverberate to this day. It caused the stalemate of stateless Somalia. Marehan could not take Mogadishu to reunite the south under a single authority and USC was defeated in Beled-Xaawo trying to take the interior to reunite the south under a single authority.
.
Goojacadde is the north's "Beled-Xaawo" that was on long deferment.

As for why they were even allowed to be in Gedo for a month

People even think Marehan "lost" Gedo for it to be occupied the month that USC occupied it.

No, there was no "battle" that Marehan even attempted realizing the ridiculous reality that every single population ---those even living with them, among them, behind them, etc---were all the enemy.

Marehan tactically "vacated" Gedo as a fighting force---SO THEY CAN CONFIRM EXACTLY WHAT THEY WERE UP AGAINST. Which group was with who.

They allowed USC and Caydiid to roll in and watched as their neighbors---the ones who were hostile and/or supposed to backstab them---confirmed themselves believing Marehan had been conquered finally.

The only part of the entire land and border not occupied by the unholy alliance was the small border with Cawlyahan Kenya south of Ceel-waaq at Gerileey which goes on to Habaaswayne and further Kenya Ogaden land.

Halkaas buu Marehan isku guray until they were absolutely confident that enough time had passed (close to a month) for any group who was going to implicate themselves to have done so and also plan exactly how they would fight this two pronged battle.

One against Aideed and the USC huwan and the other against the activated umbrella of all non-Darod locals of Gedo and Jubbaland and even bordering them from Raxanwayn in Bay, Garre in Mandera and Kenya, Degoodiye from Dollow Bay to Liban, Dir all over especially Luuq, etc etc etc.

Wallahi I don't know any other Somali clan that could have survived that onslaught and not have gone the way of "Ajuuraan" except for Marehan who has 600 years of war xeer uniquely within Somalis.

[Gubbet]

I don't think isaaqs Will fight over this defeat. We have already realised we won't win This war , Even if we kill all Their men and take Their garaads as prisoners. Yes we can do. But what are we trying to achieve here ? If the goal is to take dhulbahante land and give to the isaaqs it's understandable , both HJ and HY would love that. We have been practicing this method for generations.

If the goal is to rule the peaple as a good citizens of somaliland. That's the definition of doqoniimo. These peaple are our enemies none of them supports somaliland except Those we pay them . There is no point of wasting our time and resources on these ungrateful peaple. Soon they will turn against each other. Because the only thing that unites harti is the hatred they have for isaaqs.

We better stay our land , fix our internal issues and economy, and get rid of muuse biixi. Secondly we must allocate millions of dollars to fight our enemies inside Xamar politically . If lascaanod can become federal state , then caynabo is also a federal state, we should also aim to take over the office of the prime minister. Ma hooyadood baa daarod ka u qortay meesha , we have equal representatives and they contribute nothing to Somalia, in fact they don't even vote for the hawiye presidents , We do, making us more important , reliable partners of the hutus.

Why are they ungrateful for having vision and choice for their destiny just like you? Are they doing anything you didn't do!? You fought Barre because you didn't want hiim and even since have decided to leave those that consider you countrymen because you don't consider them countrymen. Furthermore you made sure to leave as 1 with alll of Isaaq even fighting Garxajis for daring to break up Isaaq unity to leave as one together. Dhulbahante do not want Muuse and see themselves as countrymen of Somalia. They are not ungrateful any more than you are.

[Nolol cusub]

I don't think isaaqs Will fight over this defeat. Even if we kill all Their men and take Their garaads as prisoners. Yes we can do. But what are we trying to achieve here ? If the goal is to take dhulbahante land and give to the isaaqs it's understandable , both HJ and HY would love that. We have been practicing this method for generations.

Yusuf, being practical and rational is good when both parties are rational. History shows over and over that the leadership of Haraadiga Barre are irrationally dangerous. They cannot perceive reality as it is. Just few examples:

- Challenging two superpowers and destroying the nation in the process.
- Attacking a city of 2 million people with 2000 poorly trained militias.
- Farmaajo challenging folks that dislodged Barre from Mogadishu, stood up to Americans, ruthlessly drove Tigres from Mogadishu.

None of these behaviors make any sense.

We better stay our land , fix our internal issues and economy, and get rid of muuse biixi.

I think Somaliland leadership and business community is fully aware of the bigger things at stake here.



"One of the areas with significant potential is the Nugaal Valley, which stretches across the border of eastern Somaliland into Puntland. Genel Energy was already exploring in that zone a decade ago. It withdrew for a time in 2013, citing security concerns. In the same time period, Africa Oil secured rights from the Puntland administration that overlapped with those issued by Somaliland to explore in the Nugaal Valley. A 2014 UN report expressed concern that hydrocarbon exploration in the Nugaal Valley risked fuelling violent conflict. Africa Oil ceased active operation in the area a year later."

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2023/jan/opi ... -heres-how

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