And there is a reason
Remember that the bulk of Central regions population is in the Western 1/5 of Mudug for a reason from Gaalkacyo to Beledweyne. Bursalah, Burtinle, Bacadwayn, Galkacyo, Galdagob, Saaxo, Dhabad, Caabudwaaq, and Balanbale or all the Darod towns south of Nugaal are on the border of Mudug with Hawd. But so is Cadaado, Dhusamareb, Guri-Ceel, Matabaan, Gelinsoor, Bandiiradlay, Goodinlabe, Dagaari, etc or almost 90% or more of Habar Gidir's population squeezed in a stone throw away as well for the chance of accessing Hawd grazing as well.
Really and substantively the population of the socio-cultural region referenced as Mudug in fact lives on the sliver of land that is the western border of central Somalia with the hawd grazing.
1993 was a watershed, historically unique moment in this regional history for the equity wars. Explanation would be redundant, but Habar Gidir grazing route reflected this from 1993-2000's;
In the last decade, clan resources clashes between Habar Gidir and Marehan in central Somalia have dwarfed all other occurrences of the same in Somalia ecause of the magnitude, size, and frequency resulting from the Marehan initializing a campaign to overturn the 1993 dispensation.
This week all the 3 frontline Habar Gidir clans are embroiled in clan resource clashes in casualties with a magnitude significant enough to show there is a substantive investment of clan hegemonic interest.
1. Sacad vs Layl Kase in Galdogob-Bandiiradlay area around Laanwaaley.
2. Cayd vs Saleebaan in Cadaado-Dhusamareb area around Hananbure.
But these clashes, though they do not implicate Marehan, are in the same geographical area and even on the fault line between the MX and HG;
It tells me Marehan has fully consolidated the contested equities that was at the heart of the long conflict between them and HG.
While I do not see Marehan having the interest or motivation for any involvement in the Cayr vs Saleebaan or generally for any equity east of Bangeelle, I think it should even be expected that Marehan, along with MJ/Omar Mohamud, will become involved in the Galdogob--Bandiiradlay development.
I think even a deal will be birthed that implicates an active security alliance implicating Marehan-Layl Kase mutual defense between Saaxo and Galdogob. I would not be surprised if Omar Mohamud becomes a primary principal to this deal although I cannot say.
Remarkably, for the first time in my life, I think it is possible that we may in fact see a Marehan/Wagardhac seizure of Gelinsoor settlement as a natural development of the Darod escalation that is imposed by the Laylkase-Sacad rupture of clan fighting.
This is not a prediction; this is me stating I now think this is an actual possibility down the line that cannot be ruled out as a natural consequence of this conflict.
I think Sacad would be existentially underserved by underestimating the serious risk to their position in Mudug as a result of any further expansion or even continuance of this Layl Kase-Sacad hostility.
This advice has been provided in the interest of general Somali welfare.
