-Marehan declared war against the British. The British withdrew and Marehan was left.
-Marehan declared an insurrection against the Italians. The Italians quickly changed policy and Marehan is here today, the Italians are not.
-Marehan declared war against all of southern Somalia's main factions (USC of Hawiye, RRA of Rahanwayn, SSNM of Dir), Marehan is here today and those factional groups have combined 0 political power or influence west of the Jubba River.
-Marehan declared war against Ethiopia and they withdrew 2 X in the mid 90's before course correcting and today Marehan is master over the land and it is the only place in Somalia where foreign troop presence exist who are completely deferential to local population.
- I have said this before
The only thing keeping Kismaayo from Marehan is Kenya Defense Forces and because they are not seen as a permanent problem.
They either leave or Marehan will start a clan war the second they conceive Kenya has overstayed.
I said just last year;
War Is Coming Between KDF in Jubbaland and the Marehan clan of Somalia.
I have believed for some time this was possible, but now, barring extraordinary course correction by Kenya, I now believe this is probable.
There is no more recourse for political redress.
When that shot rings out---a half dozen or dozen cultivated political agents with suits, which is what this long con is now relying on, will be immediately relegated to non-existent unimportance.
It will be tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of the Marehan "Man" and his "Rifle."
Every Marehan can sense it and the clan has been quietly preparing.Originally I thought this would be largely a by Marehan and perhaps with non-state groups taking advantage.
But now in the post Ethiopia-Sland MOU and the nationalist anger and vitriol that has spectacularly risen, I would not be surprised if considerable free lancers from all Somali clans, even from traditional rival groups, flock to Marehan wanting let out the nationalist pressure building within in such an outbreak of fighting between an actual Somali "clan" and foreign soldiers inside Somalia.
Kenya failed to heed the lessons of history and so Kenya will probably end up repeating history with all the ignominious exists of foreign of foreign Interlopers from Jubbaland in the last 120 years
If Marehan declares a clan war against Kenya's presence in Jubbaland, Kenya will leave---and they will leave with regret and in disgrace.
That has been 100% the outcome of the historical trajectory in modern Jubbaland of the last 120 years.
