WILL THE BAIDOA GOVT UNRAVEL?

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Galol
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WILL THE BAIDOA GOVT UNRAVEL?

Post by Galol »

Much has been said about the coming split within the Islamist ranks and the place being Somalia, it will be the craziest fringe that will win. In Somali affairs the crazier than crazy always wins. It is not a country of compromises where those with cooler heads are listened to. It is a country of absolutes; a you are with us or against us kind of place. The spiritual home of the craziest of the neocons. Cheney et al will be at home here

So if and when this happens will the baidoa governemnt be in a postion to at least stand as an entity? It is not really a governemnt at all but a moral exisitence. It has nothing at all as a de facto govt but it is out there as Somali government in de jure.

It is still wrong to underestimate the restraining influence it has on the Wadaads. If there was no other power in the land de jure or otherwise the Wadaads would have unleashed the full armouries of their madness on the populace from head-lobbing to women oppressing till they squeezed the last bit of freedom and life from the nation's carcass.

They are showing their best side now because at least morally they know they have competition.

But there are worrying signs of the Baidoa govt cracking. They are haemorhaging Hawiye MPs who are changing sides with the ease of the truly unprincipled. And the more sober of the wadaads know how to entice them with offers of power-sharing in exchange for jumping ship. Only last week about ten of them suddenly appeard in an Iftar with Sheikh Aweys and claimed they left Baidoa because they feared for their lives! From whom? The only guys who wanted them dead are the ones they are sharing dates with!

Another worrying development is Yusufs growing dependence on his darood clansmen and ethiopian troops for protection instead of nominal Somali National Amy. This will simply play into the hands of the wadaads.

So will it unravel? And of it does what then for the wreteched place?
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Post by gurey25 »

Yusufs position has been untenable from the begining.
If he didnt have the millitary option of going to Moqadishu when it was full of warlords he couldnt have any legitimacy.

Now the very existance of the wadaads an there control of most of the south, has made the TNG and Yusuf Irrelevant.

The wadaads do not have to go to baidoa, becuase the TNG is toothless.
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Post by Galol »

Gurey

But the fact the waddas didnt dare go to Baidoa so far is telling. Why do you think they are holding back? Because they hate bloodshed?
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Post by Gamadid. »

There is no doubt the TFG will unravel if the courts keep playing smart politics and avoid confrontation with the dying organization. Success on the ground is what matters and the courts have delivered that with such gusto it knocked the wind out of A/Y's clan based TFG. As you know, all members in the TFG who hail from Hawiye have no influence whatsoever in their respective communities. Most darods consider A/Y a crazy old hag who needs to retire. Considering the possibility of power sharing, will these TFG members accept such a deal? These are men who have never given up power for anyone and killed for it. So, teh only scenario left is to wait and see to the end of TFG without a major war.
Last edited by Gamadid. on Sat Oct 07, 2006 6:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by gurey25 »

[quote="Galol"]Gurey

But the fact the waddas didnt dare go to Baidoa so far is telling. Why do you think they are holding back? Because they hate bloodshed?[/quote]

take the Ethiopians out of the equation and Baidoa is conquered , all parlaimenterians hail the UIC as liberators, and geedi and Yusuf will be in Adis Ababa in less than 24 hours.



The UIC is not attacking Baidoa becuase Ethiopia has made it clear it will intervene in force.
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Post by Galol »

Gamadid

You sound almost gloating at the prospect of the collapse of the sole entity that can claim some legitimacy in Southern Somalia; the only entity that came to `power' throught talks and compromise rather than the barrel of the gun.

But lets move on from there. Lets say the Bai govt collapsed. What will the Wadaads do in your view?
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Post by fagash_killer »

first of all the tfg are divided in to 2 parts, ali geedi and afbijo, some how the habaashis choised for ali geedi, cuss he seems to be loyal, than afbijo, ali geedi alongside habaasi agencys could be behind the attacks on the president, and than we got some who are beeing payed by arabs regimes, like isma'il buuba, cuss the arabs dont want to see somaliland to go solo, but now the wadaads sucsessfully toke over 80% of somalia, are now the arab regimes working with the uic, the uic dont need to go to baydaboi not yet, they can still use divide and rule strategy, between digil and mirfil, afbijo, and ali geedi, if they are smart they should still keep dividing those 2, and keep working with reer digil and mirfil, excetly the uic are in baydaboi, but just like in jowhar, are they waiting for when they can attack, just like in jowhar they can use the blitzkrieg attack, the politican leaders of the uic are some wise leaders, they said servel times we are not going to attack baydaoi, but they said that in jowhar 2, while they were regrouping their, the uic are just brilliant when it comes to siyasaad, just read this



By SALAD DUHUL

MOGADISHU, Somalia Oct 4, 2006 (AP)— The Islamic militia that has seized much of southern Somalia has advanced to within 12 miles of the only town still controlled by the country's weak U.N.-backed government, an Islamic official said Wednesday.

The militia reached Moode Moode on Tuesday night, said local militia leader Mohammed Ibrahim Bilal. The group has started 24-hour patrols in the area, he said.

"Our aim was to help the local residents in their fighting of bandits and to lift blockages from the road linking Baidoa to Mogadishu," Bilal told The Associated Press.

Abdirahman Dinari, a spokesman for the transitional government, described the militia's advance as "a provocative action."

A transitional government was formed in 2004 with U.N. help in hopes of restoring order after years of lawlessness in Somalia, which has not had an effective national government since 1991. But it has struggled to assert authority, while the Islamic movement seized the capital, Mogadishu, in June and now controls much of the south.

The Islamic group's strict and often severe interpretation of Islam raises memories of Afghanistan's Taliban, which was ousted by a U.S.-led campaign for harboring Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida fighters.

The United States has accused the group of sheltering suspects in the 1998 al-Qaida bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

Earlier Wednesday, Islamic leaders held a rally that drew thousands of mostly women and students in the port city of Kismayo, and vowed to wage holy war against any group that tries to stop their military advances.

"The time for ambiguity and hypocrisy has ended. By God, we will wage a holy war against our enemies," senior Islamic official Mohammed Wali Sheik Ahmed told a crowd of at least 5,000. The militia seized Kismayo, one of the last remaining ports outside their control and Somalia's third-largest city, last week without a fight.


Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Post by Cilmiile »

The TNG is playing a waiting game. They have smoothed over their internal divisions. they are waiting for:

-Mareexaan counter attack against Kismaayo, and they are helping in that effort

-Wadaads to self-destruct. Wadaads have their own problems. Now that they have captured all these places they are confronted by all the problems of executive responsibility. They have irritated some of their benefactors in the Mogdisho business establishment who are angry that the laissez faire commercial environment has been disrupted( no more dhuxul export, no more jaad, no expired medicine). There is also a possibility of a sectional schism developing in ICU.

Wadaads to over-extend themselves. The wadaad, flush with the success of Kismaayo, have forgotten the lesson they learned after the fiascos of Puntland and Gedo, when they were routed by SSDF and Ethiopia respectively. Since that time they have been keeping a low profile and emphasizing charity, good works and cooperation. All of a sudden they are threatening to march on Puntland and Somaliland. Music to the ears of the TNG.


-More widespread and substantive international support. And the lifting of the Arms Embargo by the UN.
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Post by michael_ital »

Good thread. I'm inclined to the same notion as Gamadiid, that the courts are playing smart politics here, and recruiting as many from the "legitimate" gov as possible, thus lending themselves more credibility in the process. I believe their ultimate goal is to be accorded legitimacy in the worlds eyes, sort of saying "See? We can form an Islamic state in Somalia and run it effectively". As for Baidoa, its as Gurey said, Ethiopia is threatening. Besides, there's no rush. Time is on the Courts' side here.

Cilmiile

They may be waiting for a long time, as I believe there's a more cohesive element in the IUC than there is in the TNG. It also appears the TNG is farther along the road to self destruction than are the Courts. But there may be a hint of truth in that they're waiting for the lifting of the arms embargo, and with US fears at an all time high, their word just may have some influence. But I think it would be too little, too late. Most of the arms would find their way into the hands of the Courts one way or another.

Faqash

Please, PLEASE end the run on sentences!!! I like what you write, but it's nigh impossible to follow. Laughing
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Post by Galol »

Cilmiile

I see what you are saying. But if I was a gambling man I will bet on the TNG cracking before the wadaads implode. The weakest links in the TNG are ironically some of its supposed strengths: The Ethiopian support; the Puntland link of Yusuf and the Hawiye masses that need its moral authority more than anyone else since they are the ones under Wadaad dictatorship.

The first pilalr that will go is the hawiye MPs. And it is all over: Yuuf back to Puntland protected by Ethiopia; D&M being taken over my courts and the whole South coming under complete Wadaad control. Except of course the tiny Marexan area of gedo. It will fall too. Next target Puntland and after that Somaliland.

Our only hope is that Waaads make such a mess of things as they always do that people mould them to something more decent than their core rather than the other way round. And if that happens..who knows they might not even be such a bad nightmare afterall
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Post by michael_ital »

If there's any credence to be lent to the content in Absame's thread "The SPLIT of Union of Islamic Courts. What is Next?????", Climiile could be right here.
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Post by Cilmiile »

Galool,

You may take a flutter on the courts, but dont bet the house.

Let me reassure you about one thing: The Courts will never take Gedo, Baydhabo, Puntland or Somaliland.

The question is can they consolidate their initial success and leverage it for bargaining on the national stage. But they are not interested in power sharing. They are not pragmatic and that is their downfall. They have very ambitious aims and that has brought them into conflict with powerful enemies.

- They have enraged an already alarmed Ethiopia by declaring that they would liberate Ogaadeeniya, instead of making soothing and reassuring noises.

-They have made enemies of Somaliland by making ridiculous statements about the internal affairs of Somaliland.

-Puntlanders remember the costly and bloody war with Itixaad where brothers were killing each brothers, Uncles were killing their nephews, Father and sons even. Kugu dhimay, kaa dhimay in other words. They have no desire to repeat that because they know the cost only too well, as well as the political and tribal motives of the Wadaad leadership.

They have made enemies of the powerfully armed Mareexaan.


The government has toned down their calls for foreign force intervention precisely because they are aware of its public relations drawbacks. Instead it is the Wadaads who have been trumpeting their foreign supporters. There will be no need for Ethiopian troops once the government establishes itself militarily. That task was aided by the Kismaayo fiasco. there is a hardcore, diehard anti wadaad Segment of the population that comprises certain Abgaal( dont forget Geeddi is becoming even more powerful thatn CY), Mareexaans who are itching to regain the face they lost in the Kismaayo defeat, Veterans of the various Puntland wars. All of them determined, well drilled and armed to the teeth from an Ethiopia that is now fighting for its own life.
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Post by LionHeart-112 »

^^There one, sort of a power broker, you left out of the equation-Allah (swt). Allah has plans for Somalia and they don't include a ethiopian backed government run by A/laahi Yusuf. Isn't that what you want?
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Post by Galol »

Cilmiile

If something is going to bring them down it is their own pettiness rather than powerful enemies inside or outside the country. By picking fights with the population over minor things like TVs and football, they are undermining their own authority. Theocratic rule is all well and good in the abstract for citizens with no understanding of any other socio-political or intellectual ideas except religion and clan, but once religion hits the streets so to speak people see its cold reality; and if history is any guide they reject it wholesale.

In a weird kind of way the existence of perceived or real enemies are preventing theocratic fantasies to take full flight making their dicatatorship palatable to the war-weary citizenry.

Mike

I read Duhul's BBC analysis and I think he is exaggerating the differences between salfists and supposed moderate sufis. Also if the split does occur Sharif Ahmed and his lot are bound to lose. As I said before in somalia moderates always lose.
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Post by qudhac-m »

[quote="Cilmiile"]The TNG is playing a waiting game. They have smoothed over their internal divisions. they are waiting for:

-Mareexaan counter attack against Kismaayo, and they are helping in that effort

-Wadaads to self-destruct. Wadaads have their own problems. Now that they have captured all these places they are confronted by all the problems of executive responsibility. They have irritated some of their benefactors in the Mogdisho business establishment who are angry that the laissez faire commercial environment has been disrupted( no more dhuxul export, no more jaad, no expired medicine). There is also a possibility of a sectional schism developing in ICU.

Wadaads to over-extend themselves. The wadaad, flush with the success of Kismaayo, have forgotten the lesson they learned after the fiascos of Puntland and Gedo, when they were routed by SSDF and Ethiopia respectively. Since that time they have been keeping a low profile and emphasizing charity, good works and cooperation. All of a sudden they are threatening to march on Puntland and Somaliland. Music to the ears of the TNG.


-More widespread and substantive international support. And the lifting of the Arms Embargo by the UN.[/quote]


what game? they are politcaly dead, yusuf is a roasted turkey
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