BLAME THIS ON UIC

[fagash_killer]

Blame this on UIC
By Dheg-dheer ina Hawo
Waxa-la-Yiri low down

Arab brothers tried their best to convince the UIC leadership to support a dialogue with TFG. Arab League led by Egypt understood very well that if they donÂ’t reign in the UIC, it will lose influence on Somali question in the US administration power halls.

Egypt has played a crucial role in preventing Washington to support EthiopiaÂ’s security plans which envisaged an unrestricted border crossing a la preemptive doctrine, a doctrine Bush so fervently promoted. Losing influence on the regions policy-making in Bush White House meant Egypt will lose the geopolitical tug of war to the regional power Ethiopia.

This was a lapse of judgment on UIC’s leadership part. Drunk with victory and overwhelmed with the popular support they received from all Somalis regardless of their clan affiliation blinded them to see the need to drop the conditions they set for the meeting: Ethiopian withdrawal from all Somalia territories. Ironically, Ethiopia was “invited” to the Somali soil by the Transitional Government, an entity UIC has already endorsed! What Egypt has asked UIC to do was to “negotiate” a reasonable settlement that can prevent all out civil war.

The UIC have no institutional capacity to manage a costly war with Ethiopia supported by the African Union and the West. Eritrea can help so is Sudan but they won’t do that openly. The UIC doesn’t posses logistical armaments that can withstand aerial bombardment. Yet they declared a “holly” Jihad on a sovereign state. In a way they provided perfect pretext for Ethiopia to “defend” its borders and not wait for UIC until it acquires the means to harm Ethiopia.

Ethiopia should not be meddling with the SomaliaÂ’s internal affairs. But thatÂ’s exactly what it is doing. And it will continue doing so until the opposing political camps reach fair and desirable resolution on core Somali problems. Once the forces fighting over control of the government get on the same page, Ethiopian influence will diminish to tolerable level. UIC got this equation backwards and shunned the only means to hammer out such understanding. The very reason Ethiopia managed to play such a crucial role in Somali politics is the fact that we have yet to resolve the core issues. Having only two players narrows the field and makes the task lil bit manageable.

All objective and informed people know that Ethiopia’s aim is to install a satellite or “friendly” regime that would respect its sovereignty particularly over the eastern regions. That much is known. What is expected of UIC was to put an end to this practice by luring the TFG to a dignified exit which is having Benadir under its auspices. In return TFG agrees to share power, revises the constitution, and prepares the country through the transitional period for real and permanent government elected by the public.

The most important victory in all of this chess game is that Islamists will have become a part and parcel of Somali politicking, secure a lasting seat at the table, and enjoy a popular support from the citizens. They will also have time to teach the populace about Islam and what it entails before applying the full force of the law to uneducated masses who donÂ’t know how to cross the t and dot the i.

The emotional wing of the Islamic movement, however, mixed our aspirations to have Islamic Republic with an uncalled and untimely nationalism and jingoism. As it stands today, TFG seems to have secured UN, US, IGAD, and AU support. The Chinese have already thrown its support to TFG coffins. That means diplomatic support at regional and international levels.

It also means material support and even military support to TFG. Not to mention financial support it will receive to bid the wish of Ethiopian and Americans to rid off the region of any perceived Islamic influence on the Somali politics. I put the blame on UIC's door for they didn't see eye to eye to what Egypt was trying to do which was preventing an international consensus to form and throw its support behind the TFG.

The other dangerous thing is the clan perception in all of this political maneuvering performed by both sides. The majority of the UIC foot soldiers are from one single tribe. If and when regional and international forces gang up on this group with the help of “Puntlanders” and other coalition tribes, it will evoke clannish emotions that might translate to a full blown tribal wars which now linger just below the surface.

The real losers will of course be the farming communities in the area who produce the little we Somalis produce. Not to mention the ripple effect it will have on other provinces of the country. Starvation, displacements of local residents, renewed and deepening mistrust and animosity between clans, the list of setbacks this nationalistic fervor entails is long. All of this, for what?

Some of us have already given up the TFG. Our hopes and longing to have stable, just, and functioning government was pinned on the UIC success to end the conflict without compromising their core principles - a doable task considering where the TFG was at couple of months ago: divided house that lacked outside support. It looks like the UIC leadership blew it! Another sad prospect is waiting for the poor residents in the south who thought they have finally arrived. What a disappointment!

Still, all is not lost. In principle, UIC has a good vision. In practice, some of its benevolent rule has come to fruition. Mogadishu is peaceful. Lower Shabelle is gradually handing back properties to their right owners, Lower Juba has gotten rid off the "Coalition of Convienace" and today the locals have a say over the port income and how that gets distributed. Sure they had their down moments but who doesnÂ’t have one! What the UIC need to realize is that weary and poor Somalis deserve a break from wars. They need time to rest. What they also need to realize is the TFG is weak and will strike a deal if given a dignified way out and not cornered or humiliated.

It is also high time to underscore the residual tribalism within UIC ranks. Indhacade is a tainted man who has blood on his hand. Most of Somalis remember the days when he fought alongside the warlords. If he has repented, more power to him. However he does not deserve a leadership position. Getting rid off him enhances UIC credibility and dispels doubts about the intentions of the UIC. All of this requires competent and credible leadership who are in a position to tackle the real issues. Leadership that has the forseight to look around the corners before they leap forwardÂ…

To be continuedÂ….

[Ureysoo]

LoooooooooL@ blame this on UIC

Comments ----- “Arab brothers tried their best to convince the UIC leadership to support a dialogue with TFG. Arab League led by Egypt understood very well that if they don’t regin in the UIC, it will lose influence on Somali question in the US administration power halls”.

This must be the irony of all ironies. Since when Arabs (especially Egypt) encouraged ICU members 2 persuadably negotiate with TFG?. Matter of fact, they rally-rounded them financially, and smoothed the progress 4 them 2 receive armaments from different countries. Arabs aggravated the whole situation and putted more woods into the flaming fire of conflict. I think the idea of lifting the arm embargo made Arab countries withdraw their support, and stand in a neutral position.

Comments ----- “Yet they declared a “holly” Jihad on a sovereign state. In a way they provided perfect pretext for Ethiopia to “defend” its borders and not wait for UIC until it acquires the means to harm Ethiopia”.

UIC chose the wrong tactics 2 dismiss the current government, plus a wrong point in time 2 do their looting. I wouldnÂ’t mind if they were sincere about what they are doing, but 2 add more pain 2 the injury the whole movement is based on self-regarding and naturally clannish intentions. Thus, the troubles arose as a result of UIC formation, and not becuz of what they did only. 2 give it a consideration, ICU caused us 2 lose face, brought ignominy 2 all Somalis, encouraged the likes of A/Yusuf 2 sign treaties with Ethiopia (he wouldnÂ’t have done it, if they didnÂ’t provoke him), turned America against us, and worse than all the previous points, they divided us even more. They should be held accountable 4 all these causes/events.

Furthermore, they brought this conflict upon themselves, given that they are the same individuals who gathered ppl in Xamar and started 2 utter nonsensical comments, about how theyÂ’ll initiate a warfare against Ethiopia. Such a course of events may not only aggravate SomaliaÂ’s situation, but it can cause a detrimental quagmires/events.

Comments ----- “What they also need to realize is the TFG is weak and will strike a deal if given a dignified way out and not cornered or humiliated”

Oooooh, too late buddy. The UN decided 2 ease the arms embargo 2 permit the peacekeeping troops 2 legally enter and bring in weapons 2 Somalia. Everything happens 4 a reason and certainly we canÂ’t point the finger @ A/Yusuf only. ICU will have their share of condemn 2. Alongside, ICU will fade away be4 TFG, now that they are encountering Ethiopian forces. The wind blows in directions u donÂ’t expect sometimes, donÂ’t u lot agree.....


........................................................................