Families flee violence as Somalia's government stumbles

[Hiiraan boy]

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Through 16 years without a government, as a succession of warlords held sway over her Mogadishu neighborhood, Asli Jamale refused to move her family from her two-room house of mud and brick.

An interim government finally came to Somalia's capital, installed by the Ethiopian army. But last week, after insurgents attacked a government compound near her home, Jamale packed up her three children and a few belongings and paid their way onto a packed bus that was headed out of the city.

Aid agencies estimate that at least 10,000 people have fled Mogadishu in the two months since an Ethiopian military invasion drove Islamist militias from power and the government took over the capital.

Hopes for peace seem to be disappearing. The government - widely seen as a puppet of Ethiopia, Somalia's long-standing enemy - hasn't established any authority. The few Cabinet ministers who've come to Mogadishu don't venture out alone, instead spending their days shuffling among shabby VIP rooms in well-guarded hotels.

Hardly a day goes by without an assassination attempt or drive-by insurgent attack on the government or its Ethiopian allies. The Ethiopians have fired back, often into residential neighborhoods, killing dozens.

On Thursday, about 30 African Union military officers arrived in Somalia, the advance team for a long-awaited peacekeeping mission that's expected to number in the thousands. But it's unclear whether the peacekeepers - whom Islamists have threatened to attack - will fare any better than the Ethiopians, who Prime Minister Meles Zenawi at first said would stay in Somalia "maybe for two weeks" but are entering their third month.

U.S. officials, who backed the invasion out of a belief that the Islamists had ties to al-Qaida, have pronounced the campaign a success. But residents of Mogadishu say it's created a power vacuum and that unless the government can make peace with its rivals, conditions will be ripe for the return of the Islamists, whose strict religious law brought order to the capital.

"I'm not going to say life under the Islamic Courts was like paradise, but we have never heard the bombs we are hearing today," said Jamale, 50. She was tying branches together with strips of cloth to create a makeshift shelter in a camp 30 miles south of Mogadishu.

No one can say with certainty who's behind the insurgent attacks, but the government has many opponents. Thousands of Islamist fighters still live in the city and still own weapons. And leaders of Mogadishu's dominant clan, the Hawiye, say they've been shut out of government positions by the president, Abdullahi Yusuf, a former warlord of the northern Darod clan.

"There are many, many actors who do not want this government," said Ahmed Abdisalam Adan, a managing partner of the HornAfrik media corporation. "They are all happy with the violence."

The CIA, which feared the rise of Islamist militias, briefly paid the warlords last year to help sustain them, but the militias took control in June. The Islamists' six months in power were marked by relative peace. While many in Mogadishu chafed at the clerics' ban on Indian movies and the popular narcotic khat, people could walk the sandy streets at night safely and families could visit the city's pristine beaches on weekends for the first time in years.

Somalis and Western diplomats alike think that peace depends on bringing the Islamists' mostly Hawiye supporters into the government. Yusuf has called for a national reconciliation conference but also signaled that he won't negotiate with Islamist leaders.

Most of the government still sits 150 miles outside Mogadishu in the provincial town of Baidoa. There's no money to pay police officers or government troops, who increasingly are being blamed for petty crimes.

The violence is worsening. Last week, insurgents launched mortars at Ethiopian and Somali forces in the former Defense Ministry compound. The troops struck back, killing at least 13 people and injuring 46 in the nearby Black Sea residential neighborhood.

[eyes-only]

Actually most people don't know where to flee to and are stuck in the violence. Before they were able to risk everything to get to lower shabelle but now that over 3000 Ethiopian militias settled there, you are faced with a difficult choice....do you risk death in your home, or death as a refugee in Afgoye. I think most are favouring getting a home death. My relatives are all there and don't want to leave.....right now even the airport is not safe.

[Warya_dude]

Mogadishu is an embarrassment to all Somalis

[NoAngst.]

Mogadishu was more peaceful, cleaner than Punaniland 2 months ago. But I guess some peeps can't stomach the progress, peace others have built for themselves to the point they support foriegn intervention.

[Warya_dude]

Mogadishu was never more peacefull AND HELL NOT CLEANER then Bosaso/Puntland for the pas 17 years

Theres not one single building standing in Mogadishu its full of ruins

[NoAngst.]

The NEW Muqadishu with it's brand new stylish buildings makes up for more than half of Bossasso, all of Garowe and 75% of Gaalkacyo. If this wasn't embarrasment to you lowly Punanilanders, all of it was built post '91. Muqadishu was more peaceful than pathologically violent MJ mooryaan lands.

[eyes-only]

warya what are you smoking? wasn't it just yesterday they were reporting moroyaan in Garowe raiding a prison to releasing murders and killing a person in the process? And isn't it the same place were pirates are still holding a UN aid ship? That place is not peaceful....far from it, before it was just minorities getting butchered, now there are clan wars and moroyaan raids....even pirates. I say, Puntland is not more peaceful than Kismayo or Hiiraan. You can't compare places like Bosaaso, Garowe and Gaalkacyo to Mogadishu....they are simply not large enough.

[Warya_dude]

Incidents happen

but in Mogadishu you cant walk safe without getting killed for no reason even before the TFG/Ethiopians

A city full of thugs

LOL@ Mogadishu is re-build nigga shut the hell up a Dumpster looks like heaven compared to Mogadishu the city of ruins and trash and hawiyes

[eyes-only]

waray, just a couple of months ago real estate was booming and most people who went there saw that there were many new buildings alongside the old ones. There are also areas in Mogadishu that have been largely unscathed by the war.

It is true that you can't walk safely in Mogadishu but that does not mean Puntland is safe either...

[Cilmiile]

No Angst

I think sister you should tone down the insults because it undermines your arguments.

But definitely there is a case to be made that the ICU-held Muqdisho was an oasis of peace. It may very well be safer than Puntland. Puntland was known for a long time as a place where the Rule of Law is respected. But in the last 2 years there has been a collapse in the respect for authority and the rule of law. Increasingly Puntland resembles a lawless jungle where savage impulses of Geeljire has trumped the power of the ruling authority of Puntland.

Let us have an intelligent discussion about how we can restore the independence of Somalia. Bring peace and unity to the land. But let us not forget to bring to light the shortcomings of your tribe and factions as well. For exampe you must highlight that the ICU brought peace to Xamar but were also destabilizing previously peaceful areas of the country.

[NoAngst.]

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