Analysis of Somali history, as it pertains to the future

[James Dahl]

I have been fascinated by Somali history for some years now, it is intricate and complex in the extreme.

This is sad because the most interesting histories are interesting because they are tragic.

I have noticed several patterns in Somali history however, which make for strong states and weak states.

Strong Somali states have had:

* Strong leaders who can reach out across qabiil lines, though this is temporary within that leader's lifespan
(Ahmed Gurey is a classic example, as was Siad Barre until he went a little crazy)

* Quranic states as opposed to Qabilist states, which are vulnerable to fragmentation
(Ahmed Gurey's confederation, the Ajuuraan Imamate, and the Islamic Courts)

* Decentralized multi-Qabiil federations with no firm capital.
(The Harti sultanate and the Hiraab confederation were highly stable and strong due to their decentralized nature)

Thus if I were to assemble a Somali state today based on historical working models, I would do the following:

* I would create a Roman republic or Swiss Confederacy sort of senate, with no single leader but 2 reprasentatives from every district in Somalia and Mogadishu, the most charismatic and far-reaching qabilist leader from that district as well as the most respected waddad.

* I would distribute government authority evenly across all the major cities of Somalia, to prevent one city or region gaining too much authority. The legal code, for state stability reason, should really be Sharia.

* The president of Somalia would need to have 2/3rds of both the popular vote in Somalia as well as 2/3rds of the district representatives support him. History states that Somalia cannot afford to have a president that does not have the support of the majority of the populace. The president would be limited to nationwide or foreign relations issues, and should be barred from interfering in domestic policies. This is due to the fact that one man by nature cannot represent more than 1 qabiil, and has to be kept as far away from qabiil-related issues as is humanly possible.

[Cilmiile]

we already have a government. Thanx for your concern though.

Stick to the harper/Dion dogfight.

[James Dahl]

The TFG has half a point on two of the three main criteria. Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed has shown that he is willing to reach out across Qabiil, but he isn't respected by those Qabiil sufficiently to get the full point there.

The TFG is fully Qabiil-based, and this has historically lead to fragmentation of the state, as Qabilism is fundamentally opposed to unity.

The TFG was established with decentralization in mind, but has progressively taken further and further steps towards central government. This will make the TFG more vulnerable to Qabiil-fragmentation caused by the above.

So the TFG currently has 1 Somali state stability point out of 3 (0.5 0 0.5) and is heading towards 0.5 points out of 3 (0.5 0 0). If this government wants to rule the country long term, it needs to pick a leader that can reach across Qabiil *and* gain their respect, pull the waddads into the government, and reverse their centralization policies.

[Cilmiile]

The Majority of the people back home could care less about what system of government that operates. They just want Law and Order and to be allowed to go about their business in peace. That is why they even embraced the disgustingly tyrannous rule of the Wahaabi clerics.

But there are many vested commercial interests in the vast economic powerhouse of Mogadisho(and surroundings) who are completely opposed to the very idea of government. They became rich off the anarchy and lawlessness. And those people will fight tooth and nail against any government. The genius of the Wahaabi Clerics was to coopt the most powerful of those Criminal Oligarchs Indhacadde into their government.

CY and Geeddi are taking a different tack. They are sidelining all the powerful warlords(who have been defanged and discredited thanx to the ICU) and reaching out to the traditional leaders and intellectuals of Muqdisho. But the organized crime syndicates of post-91 Somalia are afraid of intellectual. That is why there has been a cull of intellectuals in Muqdisho. The greatest victim being Cabdulqaadir Yaxye, the brilliant Murursade intellectual and peace activist.

[James Dahl]

I agree that most people just want to be able to go about their daily lives, but this isn't unique to Somalia, as nearly everyone everywhere just wants to be left alone to go about their business in peace. The problem is that such people rarely if ever become politicians and leaders, and thus have very little power of their own.

The leaders, unfortunately, are the same criminals you just described, as this tends to occur in anarchies. What is unfortunate is that this de-facto Qabiil leadership is somewhat respected in Somalia and many of these guys are MPs in the TFG.

[gurey25]

[quote="James Dahl"]I have been fascinated by Somali history for some years now, it is intricate and complex in the extreme.

This is sad because the most interesting histories are interesting because they are tragic.

I have noticed several patterns in Somali history however, which make for strong states and weak states.

Strong Somali states have had:

* Strong leaders who can reach out across qabiil lines, though this is temporary within that leader's lifespan
(Ahmed Gurey is a classic example, as was Siad Barre until he went a little crazy)

* Quranic states as opposed to Qabilist states, which are vulnerable to fragmentation
(Ahmed Gurey's confederation, the Ajuuraan Imamate, and the Islamic Courts)

* Decentralized multi-Qabiil federations with no firm capital.
(The Harti sultanate and the Hiraab confederation were highly stable and strong due to their decentralized nature)

Thus if I were to assemble a Somali state today based on historical working models, I would do the following:

* I would create a Roman republic or Swiss Confederacy sort of senate, with no single leader but 2 reprasentatives from every district in Somalia and Mogadishu, the most charismatic and far-reaching qabilist leader from that district as well as the most respected waddad.

* I would distribute government authority evenly across all the major cities of Somalia, to prevent one city or region gaining too much authority. The legal code, for state stability reason, should really be Sharia.

* The president of Somalia would need to have 2/3rds of both the popular vote in Somalia as well as 2/3rds of the district representatives support him. History states that Somalia cannot afford to have a president that does not have the support of the majority of the populace. The president would be limited to nationwide or foreign relations issues, and should be barred from interfering in domestic policies. This is due to the fact that one man by nature cannot represent more than 1 qabiil, and has to be kept as far away from qabiil-related issues as is humanly possible.[/quote]



Good observation,
the only system that can work in somalia is a loose confederation like the swiss system.

Ciilmile seems to believe that the TFG is actually a 'Government"