ICU : Top leadership - where are they now?

[James Dahl]

Let's see if I've missed anyone.

Hassan Dahir Aweys, Shura Chairman : In Saudi Arabia?
Sharif Sheikh Ahmad, Executive Chairman : Captive in Kenya, going to reconciliation conference?
Aden Hashi Ayro, Commander of the Hizbul Shabbab : In Somalia, leading resistance movement.
Abdirahman Janaqow, Deputy Chairman : Reported dead in the attack on Ras Kamboni
Abduallahi Moalim Ali, Banadir Security Chief : Reported dead in the attack on Ras Kamboni
Hassan Abdullah Hersi al-Turki, Commander of al-Ittihad al-Islamiya : Unknown
Yusuf Mohammed Siad Inda'ade, ICU Security Chief : In Saudi Arabia?
Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur, Deputy ICU Security Chief : Unknown

[Somaliweyn]

We don't care where they are.

They had their 6-months of fame.

Now lets continue with the real politics of Somalia: clan politics

[Karbaash_killa]

Aweys in Somalia and so is Indha cadde...

[FAH1223]

aWEYS IS in Cairo

Sharif Ahmed is in Sana'a

[Karbaash_killa]

^let me know when you catch up sxb because these guys are in SOmalia and final.

[eyes-only]

James, you're wrong on all of them except macalin Xashi Adan Ceyrow and you've missed out many people...but lets leave it at that.

[FAH1223]

[quote="Karbaash_killa"]^let me know when you catch up sxb because these guys are in SOmalia and final.[/quote]

Aweys got medical treatment in Cairo, dunno why the fock he'd come back... but he could be in Saudi Arabia

and we all know Ahmed went to Yemen... they granted him asylum

[DONKEYMAN]

Terrorists should be hunted down.

[James Dahl]

[quote="eyes-only"]James, you're wrong on all of them except macalin Xashi Adan Ceyrow and you've missed out many people...but lets leave it at that.[/quote]
I haven't been able to follow a lot of what's happening due to heavy workload at work, and it takes longer for me to follow events since I don't know much Somali.
There are a lot of leaders I didn't mention, for instance all the rural and city court sharia judges, but that's mainly because I have no idea what happened to them all.

At the moment the ICU doesn't even have to do anything to return to power, the country will disintegrate on its own and then they'll just step in again. I've studied the ICU rise to power since they took Hamar in June, and the chaos that is currently sweeping central Somalia will continue to contrast unfavorably with their tenure, and people will come to forget the shortcomings of the ICU. If there's anything the ICU is good at, it's biding their time and being patient, and building up their forces from the ground up.

[abwaan1]

As far as I am concern their all dead. The fact that they’re breathing is irrelevant. They are out of Somali people’s life and looking for a shelter as refugee somewhere. Alxamdu lilaa.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

James
I would not agree with your analysis.

First, it took the ICU a long time to gain traction. It was around for years before it finally was able to consolidate power in Mogadischu and then spread out.

Second, you seem to think that popular consent is the most important factor in Somalia. It is not. Money is. If you have money to pay for a militia, that will trump any and all ideology.

Third, the physical organization and structure of the ICU was destroyed. That will have to be rebuilt and that will take time. Won't happen overnight. The fact that warlords are re-emerging and will be prepared to defend their fiefdoms again will make things difficult.

Fourth, we really don't know who is dead, who is not, who is willing to return and who is not. It seems clear Aweys is out of country, but willing to return. Probably wants to return. Indhac'ade - who knows. Is Aden Ayro still kicking around? Is he organizing the fight? Probably. Sheik what'shisface is chilling in Yemen and I do not think he will readily return to Somalia to work with the troublesome Aweys anytime soon. In short, the leadership situation is somewhat fuzzy and that will have to shake itself out, and again, that will take time.

So overall, although my prognosis for the TFG is not good, your analysis is based on the assumption that something has to rise to the surface. But if we look at the last 15 years, we see that is not necessarily true.