TPLF grip on power slipping in Ethiopia

[James Dahl]

http://www.africanpath.com/p_blogEntry. ... tryID=1645

After being imprisoned for more than 20 months, the release of the CUD opposition party leaders brought rare smiles in the streets of the capital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The opposition leaders apparently signed an apology letter to win their freedom and despite earlier uncertainty, all previously jailed politicians kept all their constitutional rights to be elected and participate in politics.

In a country where democratic values and culture is still lacking, the gradual rise of peaceful political parties to power is a breakthrough that many have been anticipating for decades. Despite most of the opposition parties working in the current Ethiopian parliament, the addition of the CUD leaders will be a big step forward. The CUD opposition party remains the most powerful and one of the harshest competitive groups against the Meles Zenawi administration. By far, it is the strongest Amhara-led opposition party. Also, with the rise of critical ethnic Oromo-led opposition parties in the parliament, the consensus is that having the voice of the majority of Ethiopians being heard will not be an issue anymore. Currently, the OFDM, the Oromo National Congress’s MP Merara Gudina and the independent MP Negasso Gidada are increasing becoming the harshest individual critics of the Meles Zenawi government, even more than CUD’s top leaders. Other opposition parties like the UEDP-Medhin remain in the middle and accuse both (which they label as “rejectionist”) opposition parties and the ruling party for allegedly applying “blanket rejection.”

The general background of the MPs and the parties can’t be any more diverse than it is. Despite most claiming to respect the Ethiopian constitution and the sovereignty of Ethiopia, various opposition MPs are the replicas of the same rebels & insurgents fighting the Meles Zenawi government in some border areas of the country. As the recent defection of the pro-ONLF rebel Somali regional state MP Jemal Dirie Kalif showed, many parliamentarians representing their southern constituency have relations with rebel groups in some level or another. Accordingly, MPs like Negasso Gidada struggle for the self-determination of the ethnic Oromos. Parliamentarians like Mr. Negasso thus reduce the history of Ethiopia claiming that “Ethiopia was created and is maintained by the barrel of the gun or by force, the Naftanyaa, and not by the free will or self determination of the peoples of the country.” At the same time, most of the pro-rebel parliamentarians keep the option of a united Ethiopia based on the equality of all ethnicities and the formation of democratic institutions. In contrast, big opposition groups like the CUD claim that their form of Ethiopian unity & Ethiopian sovereignty is not negotiable, and the question of nationalities & ethnicities does not need to be addressed at all. For most of the opposition parties, both the general understanding of Ethiopia’s future and past history are at odds. Thus it is an understatement to say that the current Ethiopian parliament is incredibly diverse. With MPs who have as conflicting goals as they can possible get, and with MPs differing in policies that are unbelievably essential to the fundamental national interests of any nation, the current Ethiopian parliament is arguably the most diverse parliament in the world.

As the result, the reality that all of these groups are actually sitting around a table and peacefully discussing the future of Ethiopia and Ethiopians is extraordinary, and definitely rare. This makes the chances that Ethiopia will one day be governed by politicians who came to power wearing suits and tie much greater. In addition, the rise of northern/Tigrayan opposition parties means that the ruling party’s main support base (Tigray) will also undergo necessary democratic reforms as much as the rest of Ethiopia. These developments make the case for violent separatist groups weaker than ever. Even the OLF rebel group (which is gradually leaning to a unitary system) has been quiet in contrast to the ONLF rebels. The ONLF separatist group in the Ogaden region is currently using all its power to overthrow the government and create a separate nation. Thus it is becoming clearer that only pro-secession guerrilla fighters, who did not necessarily believe that they can participate in a democracy and multiparty government in Ethiopia, are the most active destabilizing forces in the region. In general, the release of the CUD opposition party leaders (if followed up with their total incorporation to the parliament that leads to a creation of democratic institutions) can be a big turning point for democracy in Ethiopia. Even though such analysis might be the most optimism one, it is an understatement to say that a democratic, participatory and peaceful multiparty competitive political system in Ethiopia has a better chance to succeed today than ever before.

[paidmonk]

I was hoping the TPLF would grow stronger, but this is definitely a sign of bad things. I hope Zenawi can turn around his administration and rise back to his former power.

[AbdiWahab252]

paidmonk,

Your fortunes are linked with Zenawi.

Puntland's future qaxooti camps are going to be in Tigrey. Good luck crossing the Ogaden

[paidmonk]

If the TPLF falls, so does everyone linked to the TFG; bye-bye Abgaal, Raxanweyn, and Sacad too.

[AbdiWahab252]

paidmonk,

Nah, Sacad is off the bandwagon as soon as the Ethios & Punthopians started the fight in Xamar in April.

Its strictly Majeerten, Harti Abgaal vs. Somali.

[paidmonk]

Qeybdiid doesn't like Ceyr, he has 1,000 men in Xamar just to flex his muscles against them, Sacad aren't TOTALLY neutral.

Nothing will happen though if this TFG shit fails. If the Puntland army leaves Xamar, then the anti-TFG militias will have active targets and it'll become a slugfest. We all know their weapons are gone for the most part and they have less than 20 trucks in their arsenal. And by the time the Puntland troops get through Shabellaha and Hiiraan, there's no way the Ceyr/OG militia will get through Galguduud and Mudug.

If the TFG falls we will go back to pre-2006 Somalia, and Puntland was well and alive before that point, so I see nothing will change. Marexaan and Majerteen business is in the deep south and is the only on-going conflict after Xamar, that's all I see happening.

[Brav3Heart]

The tables are turning around in Horn of Africa.

[AbdiWahab252]

Paidmonk,

There are about 1,500 Saleban waiting in Cadaado.

A open road to Galkacyo is all they need and we ain't gonna stop them except for paying tax and tolls for the BILILIQO they bring back from Majeertenia.

The only way Majeertenia will be saved is if the other MJs gang up on the Cumar Maxmuud and beat them senseless.

Regarding the Sacad in Xamar, we are pissed off at how Afbiijo & Gheedi started the severe fighting and broke deals made with us. The attempt to loot the Bakhara was the last straw and we are ready to clobber the Abgaal & Punthopians.

AbdiQeybdiid's men fought the Abgaal tuugo and killed 30 of them on Thursday forcing Gheedi to call them off. When it comes to our $$$, we will fock anyone up who comes to steal it.

I was not AntiTFG until the April fighting. Those fockers caused my eedo to flee her home for the 1st time ever

[DawladSade]

[quote="paidmonk"] Marexaan and Majerteen business is in the deep south [/quote]


there has NEVER been a mareexaan and majeerteen business in the south before this year when all the former militias who came down with abdullahi yusuf even including his private guard were sent to kismaayo dude.

there was MORGAN and srrc vs mareexaan business...hana magac dilin dude!

[paidmonk]

AW: No point in fighting Cumar Maxamud, they kept Majerteeniya together since the SSDF days and held the Southern front for the last few decades, they're the best defensive weapon in Majerteeniya.

DS: There is definitely Majerteen/Marexaan business in the South. After all, when Morgan kicked the USC out, it was right that he control it, he was Siad Barre's top general and earned the right to rule the South, until an unruly Ceyr-loving general named Hiiraale turned the tables. Well, the tables will continue turning.

[AbdiWahab252]

1,500 Saleban will be more than enough to capture North Galkacyo. Cumar Maxmuud are weaker than before due to sending many men to Xamar cuz of Afbiijo.

With the Cumar Maxmud down, its game over. Isse Maxmuud will try to act tough but a quick slap, they will fall in. Cisman Maxmuud will just hand over bags of cash for maslaxo.

[paidmonk]

AW, there's not even that many Cumar Maxamud in Xamar; its all Dhullos, Ciise Maxamud, and Biciidyaan. The Cumar Maxamud are the light patrol manning Mudug and surrounding areas; again, they're the defensive measure.

There's currently 1,000 of them with a Reer Mahad general, just sitting in Mudug waiting for action, though I heard they were sent to fight in Kismayo and are waiting in Lower Shabelle, not sure though, but that's what I heard.

I don't think there's 1500 Saleban in the world, let alone enough to capture Gaalkacyo, there's like 200,000 Cumar Maxamud there if you haven't heard.

And plus, will Sacad allow little Saleban to have all this fun? And Qeybdiid is an easy buy for team Puntland...

[FAH1223]

Great News. Huge step in the right direction.

[paidmonk]

FAH1223, shame on you! Tigrays are OUR brothers.

[AbdiWahab252]

paidmonk,

Qeybdiid is also the same man who sent 1,300 Majeerten to naar in 1991. He will not step in the way of the Sacad Committee decision. He is already weak from the April clashes in terms of popularity.

Trust me 1,500 Saleban are more than enough. However to be sure, they will be supplemented with Duduble, Cayr, Waceysle and Waceysle (Xarardhere) with some Sacad technical advisors. The MJ in the South are going to be stuck and have no place to flee.

All in all, I'd hate to be MJ once Afbiijo loses control.

If u thought it was bad to be Marexan in 1991, wait until u see how MJs will be treated in 2007.