Somaliland - Somalia Talks

[Salah Al-Din]

Somaliland - Somalia Talks


The Somali Republic formed by the State of Somaliland and the State of Somalia ceased to exist on January 26th 1991. For the first time in the past two decades, Somaliland and Somalia will have direct formal talks. The question is why now? Is the weak Transitional Government of Somalia capable o representing the people of Somalia? Will what the TFG signs be legally binding? Furthermore, what will the agenda look like? What is the international community’s role? Will the talks lead to Somaliland & Somalia be neighbourly states living in harmony, or will the cold war continue?

Somaliland to Somalia: We’re not Siamese twins keep your distance!


Somalia Presidential Palace

Somaliland Presidential Palace

[AbdiWahab252]

Its because the Western powers want to see a UNITED Somalia. These talks are the first of many that will result in a federation in the next few years. Somaliland has changed its tune under Silaanyo who is a pragmatic leader who realizes the status quo will not lead Somaliland to where it needs to be. The end game is either a federation or federation with an independence referendum option like South Sudan.

[Advo]

What is the point of these talks again? If Somaliland is asking for recognition..they wont get it... and if the TFG is asking for Somaliland to drop it's secession dream, it won't happen. So what is the benefit of the said talks, agreeing to disagree?

[Salah Al-Din]

AbdiWahab,

Try to take the blinkers from your eyes. The Somali Republic was formed by Somaliland and Somalia; two independent states. The Act of Union that Somaliland Parliament passed and the one agreed to in principle were never ratified by the two legislative assemblies. Even the final Act of Union passed in 1961 January and meant to be in effect retroactively clearly states:
Somaliland and Somalia, being united, constitute under the Constitution the SOMALI REPUBLIC, which shall be an independent, democratic and unitary Republic.

As such, why would Somaliland having the legal argument, the political will, and the economic endurance become a federation with Somalia like it was some kind of province like Ximan & Xeeb/ Puntland/Azania?

Also, if you recall the UN and all western powers were against Somaliland since its inception, so why would it cave to international pressure when it didn’t at a much weaker time in 1991.

[AbdiWahab252]

Salah,

Saxiib, the Western world seem to be committed to pacifying and uniting the Somali Republic. Somaliland is one piece of the puzzle. Like it or not, the status quo is unacceptable to those powerful countries. In 1991, no one gave a shit about Somalia as the world focused on the Gulf War. In 2012, those Western powers see their economic and political interests in a united, stable SOmali Republic.

It doesn't matter what the Somalis think. The Western World will force their designs on Somaliland/Somalia through economic, political and military means.

[Salah Al-Din]

AbdiWahab,

It seems you are forgetting Somaliland is not Somalia. Somalia has to say "how high" whenever the internation community says "jump" like when Museveni sacked a sitting Prime It seems you are forgetting Somaliland is not Somalia. Somalia has to say "how high" whenever the international community says "jump" like when Museveni sacked a sitting Prime Minister. However, that is not the case for Somaliland. Somaliland's government answers to its citizens. The dynamic in Somaliland politics even as far as 1991, is that the will of the masses supersedes the wishes of those in power. So again, pray tell me why would Somaliland be cow-towed as you believe into submitting its selves to Somalia who for a lack of better words to quote Edna " are pirates, terrorists and corrupt" ? It makes no sense. I understand for the better part of the last two decades Somalia has been the theater for one foreign power or another, but even in the 1992-1993 UN/US intervention no US/UN troops set foot in Somaliland. So pray tell me who will force Somaliland to alter their legal, moral right to their Sovereignty? Also, your reason that militaristic means will be used on the democratic state of Somaliland to change the reality on the ground would be going nuclear and in all likely hood not plausible. You don't try to fix Somalia by going into a war with Somaliland. I'd have to say your affinity to use a sledge hammer on every situation might have clouded your judgement on that front.

Lastly, what is the international community’s interest in Somalia that they would go to war? Please don’t say oil, as that conspiracy theory was floated around in the last 1992/1993 UN/US intervention in Somalia. Would it not be more likely that the international community are tired of Somalia’s troubles spilling over into the rest of the world via piracy and the affiliation with Al-Qaeda by Al-Shabab? In my eyes, the international community could care less what happens in Somalia as long as a) Piracy is no more a problem and Al-Shabab is removed. Why else would they use African Union troops, Ethiopia and Kenya to do the heavy lifting? This intervention is as cheap as it comes. In fact one could argue the 1992/1993 intervention had more importance as the sole super power of the world was on the ground in Somalia.

[AbdiWahab252]

Salah,

Before Silaanyo, the notions of such talks or interactions with the TFG were punishable by arrest ? What changed ? What pressure has been exerted that a Somaliland President is forced to attend Somalia talks in London ? What gives ?

Like it or not, Somaliland is just under as much influence and pressure as any other Somali mamuul. The fact that these talks are happening shows this.

[Conqueror]

What is the point of these talks again? If Somaliland is asking for recognition..they wont get it... and if the TFG is asking for Somaliland to drop it's secession dream, it won't happen. So what is the benefit of the said talks, agreeing to disagree?

You hit the musbaar on the dhago!

The International Community and the Somali government has to look at this talks as talks that are between a Somali government and a Secessionist organization. It's not a talks between "two countries" as the title of this thread is indicating. Dhulku ma guure daadka guura.

[Salah Al-Din]

I think you're mistaking the change in the strategy of the foreign policy of Somaliland with a change in the desire of Somaliland to remain Sovereign or that it has been coerced into something it does not want. There is a difference, if Somaliland was being coerced it could not set the tone and make demands as it did with the people who were going to represent Somalia. Also, it has widened their foreign policy to include talks with Somalia. The western powers have communicated to Somaliland that they either find another African country to recognize their de jure Sovereignty, or talk with Somalia to some amicable solution. The international community has not given de jure recognition to Somaliland, but they can't force it to join Somalia either. Therefore, in order to get their coveted recognition Somaliland will entertain any other avenue to get to their destination. These talks are non-binding and do not in any way diminish the stature of Somaliland. To prove my point, in between the London Conference and Istanbul Conference, there was another Conference that was solely for Somaliland at the European Parliament. Somaliland will continue to play "real politics" by going everywhere it deems it necessary to advance their goals. It is not coming to these conferences to give up their sovereignty to become a "federated state" like Galmudug. I hope you can concede that much.

Now, have another go. What do you think the agenda would look like that both parties will propose. Will the talks fail as many are predicting or will Somalis finally come to an agreement that changes the hostility of the past 20 years into a working partnership between two brotherly nations?

[AbdiWahab252]

Salah,

Brother, you must concede that these talks would have never happened under Riyaale. There mere mention of talks or being seen in the presence of TFG was a punishable crime. Somaliland is under severe domestic and international pressure. The misadventures in Sool and Sanaag cost Somaliland's its mantle of stability and prestige as a bastion of peace. The crackdowns on the media haven't helped. The Awdal opposition has also added to the perception that Somaliland is not as stable as it used to be.

That being said, these talks will be the first of many. If I was the host, I would start off with areas of common agreement: antiShabab operations, piracy, trade, environment etc etc. Nothing major, and aim to secure a follow up meeting. However, nothing much will be made unless key western powers keep up the pressure on all sides to continue the talks.

Sadly, the fate of Somalis is not in Somali hands and will be dictated from foreign capitals.

[Salah Al-Din]

AbdiWahab,

You're right under President Dahir Riyale, these talks would never happen. It is not that Dahir Riyale was somehow more patriotic or less patriotic. It just means that his administration did not see any value in entertaining any talks with Somalia. As predicted by many even here on these pages, or the likes of Faisal Roble on Wardheernews, the talks are deemed dead on arrival. Therefore, President Dahir Riyale's administration did not go that route. Also, it is not because Somaliland is somehow weaker after President Riyale was voted out, but rather it is that much stronger that it can change course. It passed the needed motions in the house of parliament, it sold it's objectives to the public. I know you're more informed than to think Awdal State exists. I know that you know that the man who works at the mail room of the Ottawa Citizen, holding his cabinet meetings in his living room could possibly pose any threat to Somaliland. I also know that Somaliland has always had vocal and spirited opposition. It is naturally at the highest point in election season which Somaliland is currently in. Lastly, Khaatumo exists online and in the city of Buuhodle. The rest of Sool & Sanaag are in the hands of Somaliland except for some border villages. In all honestly Somaliland is at its strongest militarily, economically and politically than it has ever been before. This is precisely the reason it has pounced at this opportunity to advance its goals. If you mean to tell me that the TFG cannot tie its shoe laces without looking at the cue's of foreign capitals that may be the case as I did question their ability to represent the citizens of Somalia.

I must credit you though; the best possible out come from this is to keep the dialogue going until we can come to some solution that will be palatable to both parties. Somaliland can help Somalia build a democratic political system and Somalia can bestow de jure recognition to Somaliland. As they say mi casa es su casa. Let us practice the real meaning of "mininkeyga mininkaaga waaye" I scratch your back, you scratch mine.

[Cirwaaq]

For Somalia's leadership this is an opportunity to show the international donors that they are accountable and are able to at least deliver on just 1 of the many objectives set at the London and istanbul conferences.

For Somaliland it is an opporunity to show the international community they are mature in addressing their grievance with their former partners.

~Union vs Independence

Where the outcome is a potential Union:

1. Will there be a new act of union?
2. Will there be a clause in this new act where either of the two states may in future declare independence?
3. Will the capital remain in moqadishu?
4. Will power shraring be 50/50 as it was ment to be in 1960?
5. What provisions will be made for future inclusion of NFD, Ogadeen and Djbouti?
6. Will a new liberation struggle begin to free somali occupied lands?
7. What will be relations to ethiopia and kenya?
8. Will both states share in the repatriation of refugees from kenya, ethiopia and yemen?
9. Will the EU be able to return all asylum seekers to any city they like?

etc, etc, etc

In 1960 the affair between the two states was akin to two teenagers in a hotel room ready to experiment, today that meeting is reflective of a couple experiencing midlife crises and each not confident in exposing their wrinkled exterior in direct light...

[DarthSomali]

Whats in for Somaliland when Hilary Clinton said she supports unified somalia.

I liked Riyaale, he was true Somalilandist because he cursed anyone who talked to Somalia.
Somaliland should not talk to Somalia, this status quo is perfect because there is no way TFG will say: You know what, we talked nicely, and we think that somaliland should be recognized.


I believe the best option for Somaliland to get recognition is to have referendum amongst all clans in Somaliland and in Somalia.
For example there are dhulbahante inside Somaliland who are pro-Somalia. What should happen to them?
Also warsengali and some gudabursi seem to be pro-somalia, but they are fucked hard so you dont hear much about them.

[Estarix]

The TFG should have no talks with the Somaliland maamul until it the civil war comes to an end is able to establish legitimacy all over the land. Why give Somaliland chance at a leverage in talks when Alshabaab itself is losing the war. I suspect Somalilands concerns is based on the revival of a government in Somalia aswell. TFG should hold its ground and watch their brethren in the north do the begging. I foresee good days ahead for Somalia.

[Cirwaaq]

^Disingenuous [quote="Estarix"]The TFG should have no talks with the Somaliland maamul until it the civil war comes to an end is able to establish legitimacy all over the land. Why give Somaliland chance at a leverage in talks when Alshabaab itself is losing the war. I suspect Somalilands concerns is based on the revival of a government in Somalia aswell. TFG should hold its ground and watch their brethren in the north do the begging. I foresee good days ahead for Somalia.

TFG expires 20Aug2012

It is the hope of the international community that there be some form of dialogue and the matter be resolved one way or the other.

Union Vs Independence they are not concerned nor do they excessively promote either of the two options.

Following from 20aug2012 any government that is formed in moqadishu will be no different then those prior to it. Unelected and unrepresentative of the population:

Union with Somaliland would give it greater legitimacy as they would control more territory realistically.

Independence of somaliland would also give it greater legitimacy as they will no longer be claiming territory they do not control.

Let the people have their say

Dayusbra Somalis should be prevented from being Spoilers