How will the ONLF campaign be affected by Jubaland creation

[Talo alle udaa]

This is the one question that is lurking behind the minds of many people. Before I give my input, here is the latest on the talks between the ONLF & Ethiopian government

Communique – The Peace Talks Between the ONLF and the Ethiopian Government Stall
October 17, 2012 // admin1 // News in English

October 17, 2012

The second round of peace talks between the Ogaden National Liberation Front and the Ethiopian government mediated by Kenya was held in Nairobi between 15 to 17 October 2012. Abdirahman Mahdi, ONLF Foreign Bureau Secretary, led the ONLF delegation. The Ethiopian delegation was led by the Defense Minister Seraj Fegesa. The Kenyan government mediation team was led by Kenyan Defense Minister H.E. Mohamed Yusuf Haji. The Kenyan government hosted the talks.

The Ethiopian government requested the Kenyan government to facilitate talks with the ONLF. Then the Kenyan government approached ONLF, who accepted the invitation to engage in the process in a genuine and principled way.

In the first formal talks, the process went smoothly and the parties reached an agreement on the modalities, general principles and an agenda for the talks.

In the second round of the talks, the Ethiopian government delegation did not respect the principles agreed upon. These stated that “ the holding of negotiations must be in accordance with mutually acceptable principles and no preconditions shall be made to negate the inherent character and purpose of the peace negotiations.” Instead the Ethiopian delegation tabled a contentious issue that was a key element of the conflict, by insisting that the continuation of the talks depends on the ONLF accepting the Ethiopian constitution. Unfortunately, the Ethiopian delegation blocked any attempts for the talks to move forward by imposing this precondition.

The ONLF position on the constitution is that it must reflect the will of the people and that the Somali people never exercised a referendum on the constitution. ONLF believes that the solution of the conflict in the Ogaden can only be achieved by accepting the principles of the right to exercise their self-determination without any preconditions or restrictions.

The peace process is supposed to address differences between the two sides on all issues. The ONLF proposed that the parties continue to talk in the spirit of the initial agreement and start with confidence building measures that will lay a fruitful and conducive environment for tackling the impasse at a later stage.

The ONLF is willing to continue engaging in a principled peace process with the Ethiopian government.

Issued By ONLF

[Colonel]

Hats off to Minister Al Yusuf Al Haji, this man is playing his cards right and leading The House forward. Ethiopia is on its way to receive a fierce karbash now that ONLF is no longer landlocked. Let the weapons flow from Port Kismayo.

[Talo alle udaa]

Some of the questions being thrown around include whether the administration that takes over the region will turn a blind eye to the use of Kismaayo port as supply lines for the ONLF. Such statement lies on a number of assumptions, oneof which is continued presence of Kenyan troops in the area dampening any serious through from Alshabaab comeback.

Its almost certain that a great majority of the Absame have not given up on their support for the ONLF, especially the reer waamo, however it's not clear exactly how this new state will affect the fighting in the Ogaden if it will at all.

For one it seems the strenght of the ONLF movement has been in question lately, partly due to loosing supporters to narrative of peace and development as oppose to resistance and bloodshed, and partly due to the lack access to resources, whether be a training grounds or access to sea.

It's also not clear how the current Absame factions part TFG, part Kambooni, view the ONLF. We know that the some of the Kamboni leaders have Ittihad connections and that group is vehemently anti-ONLF because of bitter blood in the past, and also because the Ittihad group recently joined the Kilil5 government and no longer view Ethiopia as an enemy.

On the other hand, the Ghandi camp seem to have greater weight within the Absame community, not just because of his Absame centrist policies, but because he's being supported by a great majority of the ONLF supporters both in the diaspora and in NFD and who in turn expect support in return.

Other relevant players would include the role of the TFG as it tries to put a facade of control,
other clans who live in the region that would use any hint of support to the ONLF as a chip with which to get even or worse, call up Ethiopian support to dislodge such an administration.

[ina aadan]

Waxba shaqa'a iskuma yelanayaan xagga siyaasada.

Somalida umbaa donaysa inay bariiskaaga ciid kaaga shubto, lakin guul iyo gobonimoba waxaa leh xaq u dirirka jowxo.
Waad maqashy in Shekh Deeq&Sulub ay is arkeen gaalki haystay ciidamad wayaanaha, way ku yidhahdeena waad maqashay.

[original dervish]

development and nurturing of the people in jubbaland is resistance in another form.
now Somalia and Somalis must build and recover after a generation of turmoil.
we will never cease to view Ethiopia as our eternal enemy until they`re wiped from the map.

[ina aadan]

Darwiisha asalka ah.

Xalada somaliyeed aad bay i wanaagsantahay oo waxaad modaa inay naxariistii eebe inoo timid, lakin waa inaan iska qabanaa kuwa sharka inagu wada si aynu u gaadhno nabad waarta iyo barwaaqo.

[Talo alle udaa]

Waxba shaqa'a iskuma yelanayaan xagga siyaasada.

Somalida umbaa donaysa inay bariiskaaga ciid kaaga shubto, lakin guul iyo gobonimoba waxaa leh xaq u dirirka jowxo.
Waad maqashy in Shekh Deeq&Sulub ay is arkeen gaalki haystay ciidamad wayaanaha, way ku yidhahdeena waad maqashay.

Haa waan maqley. ninyahow hadii arrintaan la raba in ay horey U socoto, sidee baa lo sii hormarin karaa weeye su'aashu. waad xusuusata wixii raacey dhalinyaradii laga soo dejiyay xeebta
berbera, qaarna la qabtey, qaarna hawdka lagu xasuuqay. Imisa nin baa si dhuumaaleysi ah loogu daaweeya magaalooyinka Bosaso iyo Hargeysa, ayagoo qaar xita haweenkooda la xidho?
Meel xitaa dhaawaca la dhigo ugu yaraan la helo waxweyn bay ahaan laheyd.

[ina aadan]

War markay arkee Shekh Deeq iyo Sulub oo libaaxyo u eg bay nimankii xabashida ahaa xaarka ceshan wayeen kolkasay soo carareen. Inader waxaan loo rafaadin laguma raxaysto, waxayna arintu u socotaa sidii ugu wanagsanayd.

Sheekada cabdi ilay iyo dhalintii xeebaha way soo benowday.

[Murax]

You Guys seriously think IGAD is gonna build You a Jubbaland and that they will allow ONLF to be supported? Gen Gabre was in those "Jubbaland" meetings in Nairobi, that should tell You something.

[metamorphosis]

You Guys seriously think IGAD is gonna build You a Jubbaland and that they will allow ONLF to be supported? Gen Gabre was in those "Jubbaland" meetings in Nairobi, that should tell You something.

Onlf isnt interested in jubbaland bro.

[DANGIRL]

You Guys seriously think IGAD is gonna build You a Jubbaland and that they will allow ONLF to be supported? Gen Gabre was in those "Jubbaland" meetings in Nairobi, that should tell You something.

Wallahi naagtan waa donqoka.

[Murax]

Dangirl,

Lord knows for Your troublesome health, I hope Absame become a Global Superpower

[Talo alle udaa]

You Guys seriously think IGAD is gonna build You a Jubbaland and that they will allow ONLF to be supported? Gen Gabre was in those "Jubbaland" meetings in Nairobi, that should tell You something.

IGAD as far as the Jubbas are concerned is Kenya and Kenya is not intimidated by Ethiopia.

The ONLF current has no stable supply lines. It's impossible to get anything through via the Eritrean border. Their biggest source of ammunition is actually from the Ethiopian troops/generals themselves.
As far as Jubaland is concerned, Ghandi is currently being touted as the leader closest to the ONLF cause amongst the potential jubbaland leaders. Koley waxbdan waxbaa iska bedeli.


It's also possible that the ONLF ends up making up a peace treaty with the Ethiopians.

[Murax]

You Guys seriously think IGAD is gonna build You a Jubbaland and that they will allow ONLF to be supported? Gen Gabre was in those "Jubbaland" meetings in Nairobi, that should tell You something.

IGAD as far as the Jubbas are concerned is Kenya and Kenya is not intimidated by Ethiopia.

The ONLF current has no stable supply lines. It's impossible to get anything through via the Eritrean border. Their biggest source of ammunition is actually from the Ethiopian troops/generals themselves.
As far as Jubaland is concerned, Ghandi is currently being touted as the leader closest to the ONLF cause amongst the potential jubbaland leaders. Koley waxbdan waxbaa iska bedeli.


It's also possible that the ONLF ends up making up a peace treaty with the Ethiopians.

Don't get Me wrong. I have no problem if our ONLF brothers get weapons from Kismaayo, but I think You're dead wrong in the feasibility of this. First of all You have to realize that Kenya, Ethiopia are really close politically and have been for a long time. Don't confuse Kenya's relationship with Ethiopia with Kenya's frosty relationship with Uganda. Kenya, Ethiopia had treaties in the past Where they would both delcare war on Somalia if Somalia invaded either Country. Now I understand Ogadeen have some influence in Kenya but I do not think it is that great that they would convince Kenya to turn a blind eye to arms going to a rebel group in Ethiopia through the Kismaayo port. If You think the Kenyans won't know, think again because from what I'm hearing even if this Jubbaland establishment is a success which it should be, Kenya will not be going anywhere for the next 4 years. They will make long term bases and the Raskambooni/TFG militias will be turned into police while the Kenyan forces will be the "Somali Army" until Somalia's Government can get strong enough to have a Federal Army to man different areas of the Country.

[grandpakhalif]

Jubbaland wil not harbour nor provide material to foreign militants who seek to destablize our relationship with Ethiopia.